Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[SOMOSnow]

👇 Another look at the 18z GFS snowfall totals (kuchera) 😳👀

Edited December 6, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The gfs has become utterly useless 

The upgrade has unleashed the can of worms!

[Penn State]

Looking at the analogs.. At least December 1966 and 2009 are of interest. Both saw NE winter storms. 

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Looking at the analogs.. At least December 1966 and 2009 are of interest. Both saw NE winter storms. 

December 2009 featured the Christmas Blizzard

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The gfs has become utterly useless 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

40 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Incredibly unfortunate that it's the only model of the main ones that runs beyond 84 hours, 4 times daily. Basically leaves the euro for long range and 1 of those runs is in the middle of the night tracked only by a few unless there's a storm on the door step. 

[SOMOSnow]

🚨🚨🚨 Fwiw, BRAND NEW Euro Weeklies are in. 30 day and 46 day temp anomalies. Not bad. 👇

Edited December 6, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

Euro Weeklies 46 day ❄️ snowfall, fwiw:

Edited December 6, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

👇 More from new Euro Weeklies. 7 day temp anomaly from Dec 21-Dec 27 would make about everyone here happy. 🎄🎉🎁

Edited December 6, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[Iceresistance]

Are Y'all ready to rumble!?

[Iceresistance]

30 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Euro Weeklies 46 day ❄️ snowfall, fwiw:

I wished there was "excited" here. 😛

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Is this a joke?

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[SNOWBOB11]

20 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Just a small difference there lol.

[Ingyball]

Alright, what the heck did I do to the GFS in order to get teased like this. Storm starts at day 10 and just keeps going once again lol. 

Edit: This would break yearly snowfalls in some areas in the span of a few days. Even half this would be a very rare event. GFS seems way off right now, but hopefully this is one of those pesky things the GFS doesn't back down from and ends up right lol. 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ingyball

[Ingyball]

06z GFS a little more realistic for Kansas but still a great storm if that happened lol. 

 

\

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z

[MaineJay]

8 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Are Y'all ready to rumble!?

I'm going to keep focusing on the Hudson Bay region. Until I see a stronger vortex in that region, I'll be hesitant to buy any widespread intense cold outbreaks.  It's been consistently overmodeled. There's some suggestion in the modeling that the PV gets shunted largely into eastern Siberia, with only scraps left for Hudson Bay.

   Not saying there won't be some cold, as we are moving into the climatological lows of the year, and the blocking can certainly support storms, but I tend to look for the caveats in any forecast.

  EPS trend.

I ain't gonna besmirch anyone for posting data showing cold, I know this is a game of probabilities, and high latitude blocking statically delivers cold, but not always.

 And I'm not complaining or anything. I am pouring a foundation at my house for an in-law addition, and all my work the next month or so is outside. Perhaps I'm "hopecasting", as I've grown tired of working in single digits temps in my advancing age.

   I'd gladly torch up here, with no snow if it meant y'all get buried.

 

And this is not directed toward you or anyone in particular.

  As a generally rule of thumb, context often gets lost in social media posts.  Let's not take posts, or responses to posts personally, I don't think that's the intent 90% of the time.  As a bunch of weather obsessed folks, we tend to look for a place to vent our weather frustrations (and jubilations) to folks who can empathize and understand, snow obsession.

[Ingyball]

I said awhile back that this pattern favored the Plains, for a time it did look like the East Coast would get in on the action, but it looks like it takes the Pacific too long to behave. That said I still think there will be cold out east the 2nd half of the month but we need to have a storm system sweep through the U.S and not just occlude before the Apps. What y'all should be watching now is how much the snowpack across the Great Plains increases (especially for Nebraska and the Dakotas) that will be vital for the East Coast for the next chance late this month into January when it looks like the Pacific finally relaxes.  

 

Edit: looks like CPC has trended more in this direction as well. Overall this pattern should be beneficial for most west of the Mississippi

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by Ingyball

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z 6-10 day windows, have gotten muddier. With the eps taking a step backwards towards the GEFS warmth

[MaineJay]

 

[Hassaywx1223]

Have about a week to 10 days before you can pack December in and hope for January. Once you get 2 or so degrees above average you need a slug or arctic air to even make it average. Yeah I’m sure there will be cold spots and snow in the air at some point. But we’re looking at the month as a whole and well it’ll be a bust for most Mets that said it can run below average by a degree or so 

[StormfanaticInd]

I really can't believe we are looking at yet another torch for December. What are the statistical odds of having so many warm December's in a row?😬

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I really can't believe we are looking at yet another torch for December. What are the statistical odds of having so many warm December's in a row?😬

IDK, at least that Late December this time around is going to counter that!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Ask and ye shall receive. Wow...you have to go back to 2010 before you find a cold eastern US for December....not only that...to find average you basically are talking about 2017 and 2013 out of the last 11 or 12 years