Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: FWIW, I doubt any non-NOAA employees know what the EFI is. It's an awesome tool, but it's not publicly available. I've explained it here a couple times here before and it's technically publicly available (as in you don't need your NOAA login to view it) so I'll bring it up from time to time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) The system on the 13th-14th is amped up on the 12z euro but with a much further south track than the GFS. This would be a solid system for my area if it were to verify. If the prior system can bring in a shot of colder air maybe the euro is on to something with it’s track. FWIW 12z CMC is also similar to the euro. Edited December 5, 2022 by SNOWBOB11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) One thing to keep in mind is the GFS products have very recently been upgraded. Too early to tell if those upgrades are helping or hurting the model output. We've seen in past that alterations to models don't always enhance the models, at least initially. Time will tell the tale. Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 12z Canadian ensembles. Day 6-16 on top and day 9-16 on bottom. 👇 Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 👇FWIW. Can we not go into trashing JB (or any poster) if having an issue with the post and just discuss the ideas please? Would be refreshing and healthy for the board imo. 😃 Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z Euro ensemble 2m temp anomaly day 8-15. 👇 FWIW, 12z Euro Control goes into icebox last 10 days of run and brutally cold last 7 days. (Might post separately later.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: 12z Euro ensemble 2m temp anomaly day 8-15. 👇 FWIW, 12z Euro Control goes into icebox last 10 days of run and brutally cold last 7 days. (Might post separately later.) Joe Bastardi has a Tweet for just that! (I can't embed mine for some reason) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 My other weather forum that has the Winter forum is about to get really busy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) Just for fun, fwiw. 👇 (This is all partially for fun/enjoyment, right? 😃) 12z Euro Control day 5-15 on top and day 8-15 on bottom. Very cold run, but just one run. Grain of salt. Proceed with caution. Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z telliconnections 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 12z teleconnections The PNA is getting more and more favorable as we get closer to Mid December! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 🚨 Now we're talking. 500mb 5-10 day and 10-15 day via 0z Euro ensembles. That's a great look for most of us to begin to deliver cold. Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SOMOSnow said: 🚨 Now we're talking. 500mb 5-10 day and 10-15 day via 12z Euro ensembles. That's a great look for most of us to begin to deliver cold. Sharing this! Holy moly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: 🚨 Now we're talking. 500mb 5-10 day and 10-15 day via 12z Euro ensembles. That's a great look for most of us to begin to deliver cold. I think that's the 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 whatever "update" they did to the GFS is ridiculous. The run to run variability compared to the other 2 major models is laughable, even 10 days out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I think that's the 00z Yep, just noticed it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 what happened to 500 MB 8-10 day comparisons from ewall, they don't update anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I think that's the 00z Thanks! I will correct this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: whatever "update" they did to the GFS is ridiculous. The run to run variability compared to the other 2 major models is laughable, even 10 days out Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I've also never seen energy get stuck for 140 hours lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I was about to post that for Y'all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I've also never seen energy get stuck for 140 hours lol The GFS is like "If you thought that my previous run was crazy, then try this!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 6, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 6, 2022 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The GFS is like "If you thought that my previous run was crazy, then try this!" See.. my question is.. why can’t the GFS use this momentary lapse of sanity to produce something epic? Give me a sub 960mb low.. crawler.. originated in the gulf, right up the coast. Give me a trough all the way down to San Juan. If we’re going to get crazy, let’s go! Edited December 6, 2022 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 The gfs has become utterly useless 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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