Mulaman984 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I'm just saying he got fooled like the rest of us the last couple weeks so why put yourself through the potential for ridicule again that far out until things become clearer I guess because I choose to be somewhat optimistic? He certainly doesn’t hype. If he’s wrong, he’s wrong. He has a pretty good track record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Mulaman984 said: I guess because I choose to be somewhat optimistic? He certainly doesn’t hype. If he’s wrong, he’s wrong. He has a pretty good track record. That's my problem with social media forecasts, it's for avenues like this board for us to be optimistic as snow lovers about a potential forecast. Something broadcasted out to the public should have all emotion put aside. But I digress.... Here is last nights updated PNA/EPO forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: Call it what you will. He’s made a call and is actually one of the most level-headed forecasters for our region. 100% agree. Very low profile guy who just likes the weather and is knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: That's my problem with social media forecasts, it's for avenues like this board for us to be optimistic as snow lovers about a potential forecast. Something broadcasted out to the public should have all emotion put aside. But I digress.... Here is last nights updated PNA/EPO forecast The -EPO is going to take a break before coming back for more in Mid to Late December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Larry Cosgrove has between 12/16 and 1/8 being cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: That's my problem with social media forecasts, it's for avenues like this board for us to be optimistic as snow lovers about a potential forecast. Something broadcasted out to the public should have all emotion put aside. But I digress.... Here is last nights updated PNA/EPO forecast What emotion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Anyone else having trouble with quote tweets since last night? I can barely get them to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: What emotion? optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Anyone else having trouble with quote tweets since last night? I can barely get them to work. The one you have tried to get is not embedding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Would be nice - But until a pattern like this is consistently showing up in the 6-10 day window, I'm keeping my expectations very low. I've lost count of the number of times that the various ensembles have shown incredible potential in the hour 240+ range the last few years only to see it pushed back several weeks or disappear altogether. Just keeping it real - being realistic is different than being pessimistic. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: optimism Why are you assuming indywx is just trying to be optimistic? And that only social media Mets and wx people do that? It happens on TV, too. That said, It seems fairly clear you're of with the pessimistic feeling. So I'm not sure why you're calling out optimism if you're okay with pessimism. I guess being optimistic is a bad thing now lol. Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 @Ingyball, just for popcorn (chicken) purposes! 😛 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Why are you assuming indywx is just trying to be optimistic? And that only social media Mets and wx people do that? It happens on TV, too. That said, It seems fairly clear you're of with the pessimistic feeling. So I'm not sure why you're calling out optimism if you're okay with pessimism. I'm sure OB45 will speak for himself, but I have seen nothing posted by him that I'd call pessimistic. It's clear that he loves snow/cold just as much as anyone on these forums. I think some of us must have very short memories when it comes to how bad winter modeling has been in the long range in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 17 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Why are you assuming indywx is just trying to be optimistic? And that only social media Mets and wx people do that? It happens on TV, too. That said, It seems fairly clear you're of with the pessimistic feeling. So I'm not sure why you're calling out optimism if you're okay with pessimism. I'm not by any means a pessimist, like meso said...theres a difference between pessimism and realism if you go back several pages....I was one the fools who got excited and fell for the false long range cold we would just about be heading in to this week. Now its more of the fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. Until it enters that 1 week window im cautiously optimisitc My point above in those posts was if you in the business of broadcasting to the public...you shouldn't have bias of forecasting. Does that mean it (social media forecasting) doesn't? no Edited December 5, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: @Ingyball, just for popcorn (chicken) purposes! 😛 Yeah that's a clown run. Would be a once in a life time snow event 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) So bias for social media mets apparently means the long range cold has to be wrong until its in short range. If you post otherwise, you're just being falsely optimistic and not pessimistic.. or sorry.... I meant realistic. But if you trust long range model warmth, it's OK to be optimistic whoops I meant realistic that it is correct. Is that pretty accurate? Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Flashback to November 25th, for this week. Think they would've learned to hold off Sorry your video post got called out as carrot chasing. If he had shown warmth it would have been all good. Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: So bias for social media mets apparently means the long range cold has to be wrong until its in short range. If you post otherwise, you're just being falsely optimistic and not pessimistic.. or sorry.... I meant realistic. But if you trust long range model warmth, it's OK to be optimistic whoops I meant realistic that it is correct. Is that pretty accurate? you just want to argue like always, so this conversation is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 23 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: you just want to argue like always, so this conversation is over. So it looks like I 🔨 it. I'm not the one who keeps calling out posts btw but ok . And actually I don't want to argue. It seems you want to be able to call out posts etc and then nobody push back on you Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, Ingyball said: Yeah that's a clown run. Would be a once in a life time snow event 😂 GFS has done that 2 or 3 times already in my neck of the woods.. these 2-footer pluses. It's on steriods. Season total = 2.5", btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 No offense to both SOMOSnow and Buckeye, but chill. We use the forum for entertainment and informative purposes. Keep some perspective of that. You are both very valuable to all of us so just relax and be fortunate we can be here to do this. Many others aren't near as fortunate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, beaver56 said: No offense to both SOMOSnow and Buckeye, but chill. We use the forum for entertainment and informative purposes. Keep some perspective of that. You are both very valuable to all of us so just relax and be fortunate we can be here to do this. Many others aren't near as fortunate. Thank you Edited December 5, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted December 5, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: FWIW, I doubt any non-NOAA employees know what the EFI is. It's an awesome tool, but it's not publicly available. Accupro has it. Spoiler https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FUG/Extreme+Forecast+Index+-+EFI%2C+and+Shift+of+Tails+-+SOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: FWIW, I doubt any non-NOAA employees know what the EFI is. It's an awesome tool, but it's not publicly available. Extreme Forecast Index, I first found it from Windy.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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