SNOWBOB11 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 GFS looking wonky with some of its storm tracks but it looks like we might be getting into a stormy pattern mid month. Watching closely but I think we are going into a fun time for tracking in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) FWIW, MAJOR improvements on the 18z operational run. Best GFS run for consistent cold in several days. 2m temp anomalies below for day 6-16, day 9-16 and day 11-16. 👇 Edited December 4, 2022 by SOMOSnow 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Big time potential if these storms can take advantage of this strong block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Something getting lost in this is the flood threat this week. Models are predicting a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: If only it was colder but not a bad look again Hmmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 On 12/3/2022 at 1:28 PM, beaver56 said: I am just hoping for some rain and ground saturation. Username checks out. 😀 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Looking at the big picture, I agree with those saying that the week of 12th gives us a good shot at a 4-5 day cold spell with a chance of snow, but in the midwest and/or mid-atlantic but how it all plays out is still a bit murky. I'm just not buying a complete -NAO until January as everything seems to be a bit stuck cyclically. What that means is the next 5-10 days are mild, with a cold shot somewhere near the end of the 5-10 day range which lasts 3-4 days, and then we rinse and repeat. I'm also about say something very depressing, but pointed, if we can't get a -NAO regime to set up or a negative EPO set up, we're going to be chasing scraps this winter in the east. We're still in a La Nina though, so the pattern makes sense. A piece of good news though, the pacific northwest is getting absolutely hammered and their drought is being remedied. Hopefully we'll get more storms getting further south and obviously we need a ton more dropping heavy snow into Colorado (this is tough in a La Nina). The other thought is that I really like the next cold shot after the 13th-14th-ish to be right around Christmas give or take a couple of days. I do think there are areas of the midwest and northeast that have real hope for a white Christmas, but we just need to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Food for thought....👇 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Interesting on the analogs imo...👇 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Psu1313 said: Looking at the big picture, I agree with those saying that the week of 12th gives us a good shot at a 4-5 day cold spell with a chance of snow, but in the midwest and/or mid-atlantic but how it all plays out is still a bit murky. I'm just not buying a complete -NAO until January as everything seems to be a bit stuck cyclically. What that means is the next 5-10 days are mild, with a cold shot somewhere near the end of the 5-10 day range which lasts 3-4 days, and then we rinse and repeat. I'm also about say something very depressing, but pointed, if we can't get a -NAO regime to set up or a negative EPO set up, we're going to be chasing scraps this winter in the east. We're still in a La Nina though, so the pattern makes sense. A piece of good news though, the pacific northwest is getting absolutely hammered and their drought is being remedied. Hopefully we'll get more storms getting further south and obviously we need a ton more dropping heavy snow into Colorado (this is tough in a La Nina). The other thought is that I really like the next cold shot after the 13th-14th-ish to be right around Christmas give or take a couple of days. I do think there are areas of the midwest and northeast that have real hope for a white Christmas, but we just need to see how it plays out. What do you mean by complete -NAO, you mean un sustainability? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: What do you mean by complete -NAO, you mean un sustainability? Correct. We’ve been technically negative but between 1 and -1 is basically neutral so there have been few true strong blocking regimens. We are currently in one but the position of the Greenland high (east based nao) is really keeping the cold air too far west. I wish I was more adept at explaining my reasoning, but although we will squeeze cold air down, our PV looks like it is going to strengthen after our dump of cold mid month and squeeze off the cold air. So then we will have a +epo, a neutral or at least not terribly strong -so and what amounts to a neutral nao. That’s not a great recipe. Maybe as the Greenland high slides west, it will open up more doors, but I’m really hoping an SSW really changes the playing field as it relates to the position of the blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, SOMOSnow said: Food for thought....👇 There's no limit to how much cold he can forecast for his backyard, but anomalous cold at tropical latitudes on day 16 of the GFS is rant inducing 🙄 To think the scientists at NCEP are monitoring random twitter posts for tips to improve their models confirms that this guy is unhinged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) Improvement in the PNA, still not great, but all models pretty aligned there on at least minor improvement EPO seems to be a roller coaster and the fly in the ointment still Edited December 5, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 What an interesting run. Can't say I have seen a feature like this over eastern Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I don't know what they did to the gfs but that model is struggling like I have never seen it struggle before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 (edited) The euro is catching on to what I have been watching for Edited December 5, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 5, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: The euro is catching on to what I have been watching for EFI is showing hints for this winter storm, looks like it could be wet for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Not quite there yet, nearly identical pattern, just different depths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 GEFS for the first 3 weeks of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 hours ago, Ingyball said: EFI is showing hints for this winter storm, looks like it could be wet for portions of Kansas and Oklahoma too. FWIW, I doubt any non-NOAA employees know what the EFI is. It's an awesome tool, but it's not publicly available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 42 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: Flashback to November 25th, for this week. Think they would've learned to hold off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Flashback to November 25th, for this week. Think they would've learned to hold off Call it what you will. He’s made a call and is actually one of the most level-headed forecasters for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 CMC has a different idea than the EURO/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: Call it what you will. He’s made a call and is actually one of the most level-headed forecasters for our region. I'm just saying he got fooled like the rest of us the last couple weeks so why put yourself through the potential for ridicule again that far out until things become clearer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now