Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 4, 2022 06z GFS is too progressive for the Plains this go around. Could be a big storm for the East Coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 4, 2022 No dice for the east coast. Thought we may see a secondary low form with that trough. GFS still crushes the Plains after that though. What we'll end up with is one big storm that ends up too far north and west for everyone xD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Ingyball said: No dice for the east coast. Thought we may see a secondary low form with that trough. GFS still crushes the Plains after that though. What we'll end up with is one big storm that ends up too far north and west for everyone xD Mt Washington always cashes in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Maybe the climate truly is changing. Decembers rarely get cold and snow anymore. I posted something similar the other day. Just from a shear observation standpoint, things are different. Things going cycle and I believe nature does as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) Last 5 days (end of runs) of O6 GEFS, 0z Canadian ensembles and 0z Euro ensembles with remarkable consistency. Edited December 4, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 48 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Last 5 days (end of runs) of O6 GEFS, 0z Canadian ensembles and 0z Euro ensembles with remarkable consistency. Until it reaches the 6-10 day window, it's exactly what we just went through 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Until it reaches the 6-10 day window, it's exactly what we just went through The models were definitely too quick with the Greenland block developing but it's starting to setup now. Mid month definitely favors the western U.S and Plains though but I am confident that we will see cold in the east for the 2nd half of the month. It's going to take a couple of storms to push the warmth out and pull the cold down though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 NAEFS shows insane uncertainty. Not sure I've ever seen so much white paint used 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Until it reaches the 6-10 day window, it's exactly what we just went through Hmmm ok. So why we bothering with this thread if we know it's gonna be bad by 6-10? Let's just forget it. Sorry for posting the 10 to 15 day range. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 4, 2022 53 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: NAEFS shows insane uncertainty. Not sure I've ever seen so much white paint used Warmth in my region like that could signal stormy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 57 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Hmmm ok. So why we bothering with this thread if we know it's gonna be bad by 6-10? Let's just forget it. Sorry for posting the 10 to 15 day range. My bad. Relax. Lol. All I said is we just went through it. I didn't say it was going to be bad by 6-10, chill man. You need to re read my post. Edited December 4, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Would this be a triple phaser on the Canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) Even I, the winter miser, tend to forget that December is a step down month. Usually by Christmas the overall pattern of ridging in the west sets up to where more sustained cold shots are more prevalent. I just don’t expect full blown winter before the 15th. Every year we go through this winter cancel, and it’s hard to look past the fact that with this year, much of the CONUS has been above average in terms of normal departures. add in the fact that most models are all over the place this year. And really… the snowpack in the Upper Midwest isn’t really all that impressive yet. Edited December 4, 2022 by NWOhioChaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted December 4, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Would this be a triple phaser on the Canadian. GFS has something for the 14th as well.. not as well organized. But the GFS has been throwing widely dispersed darts 🎯 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cdfarabaugh Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Penn State said: GFS has something for the 14th as well.. not as well organized. But the GFS has been throwing widely dispersed darts 🎯 Widely dispersed darts is a compliment. More like throwing screwdrivers, axes, knives or whatever else it has at a 10x10 wall 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) Day 6-11 12z Canadian ensemble mean. 👇 Edited December 4, 2022 by SOMOSnow Wording 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) 22 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: While we talk about the east coast pattern though the west is cashing in on some nice precip and mountain snows that is very much needed out that way. That is the most positive thing I take out of all this. Is the slow erosion within the central portions of the country for drought coming up and that the west coast is getting some nice snowfalls. I honestly hope it continues out that way for rain and snowfall they need it as unfortunate as it would be for our potential winter over here in the east. I am watching this closely. The west needs this more than anything. You have a trough out west all winter and it would only make a small dent in the dry pattern they have been enduring. We are also dry here in Michigan, In my local I believe we are 10 inches short of our normal precip. this year. Edited December 4, 2022 by Al_Czervik Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) If only it was colder but not a bad look again Edited December 4, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 There is a pretty strong signal for a storm between the 11th-14th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 The MJO appears to be now useless for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 (edited) New 12z Euro ensemble mean 7 day temp anomaly day 8-15. 👇 Edited December 4, 2022 by SOMOSnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 4, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 4, 2022 18z GFS looking troughy 👀 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 32 minutes ago, MaineJay said: The odds are (of course) low for my area, but the odds of the White Christmas is higher than normal this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ingyball said: 18z GFS looking troughy 👀 Yep, someone on a different forum said that the ensembles are showing a cold wave to come here in the next 8-14 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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