Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Ohiobuckeye45]

NAEFS starting to pick up some mid month uncertainty 

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

"A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm?"

Is that not what we're all here for? In December your lucky to get one of those, let alone both...so I guess your simple answer is yes?

This:

Is far more appealing

Than this:

 

Even without the storm

This:

Is far more appealing 

 

Than this:

Regardless of any accompanying storm

Yes im all for talking about storms when consistency arrives but to have continual consistency 9 days out is rather impressive let alone 5 days out. When comparing something a day out of being considered long range to something that now is within about 5 days will throw chaos into the air. Unfortunately no one ever said the -PNA would disappear, the model threw out the chance of a fix in that pattern doesn't mean it was correct 9 days out this is the by product of leading into a -NAO pattern with a -PNA present. The pattern was always expected to be -NAO/-PNA when we are trusting models more than 5 days out we are bound to fall into some major depression over a failed outcomes if we think that sticks around for that long. The best thing to do outside of day 5 is look in the upper levels forget about the surface temps and storm locations in a long range thread leave those for their own specific threads an preferably not more than 7 days out don't get me wrong I love seeing those fantasy storms, but that is all they are fantasy storms.

Look for key things in the pattern -NAO/ +PNA/-EPO/ -AO to stay around consistently we may have a situation of a deepening -NAO and a -AO which means yes we are blocked in the Atlantic retrograding into a better position with time. The -AO floods the mid latitudes with cold but it doesn't mean it gets aimed at us. The lack of the +PNA/-EPO combo or one or the other is the biggest reasoning on no cold. The -PNA is holding with consistent west coast lows and -PDO present. We got a taste of what a wave pattern could do in November from the MJO. the -EPO happened to be very much present but we still very much had a -PNA and barely a -NAO more of an east based which allows the cold to be further east. If it weren't for the initial warmth in the beginning of the month it would have been a really cold November, alas things happen. We got an active east coast storm track with numerous storms along 95 but without a west based -NAO they were left to go further inland and faster with flow through the east coast. -PNA would still have yielded a cold enough pattern with the -EPO but with an east based -NAO it just didn't work. 

Now if we look at our current situation we still have the -PNA ever present, we now have a west based -NAO but we are missing the cold component which is the -EPO. If that came about it would have been great but that was rather far in the future and honestly just felt too rushed without a reasoning behind the change, also given we are still in a +WPO pattern. This gives us a better understanding that things really need to come together right for big time storms and how lucky we were for many many years. I like the -NAO present I like a -PNA if we are not having a -EPO pattern because it at least means an active storm track yes we may not get snow every time from every storm but that is where we are in the pattern and we need to understand it for what it is.

I feel like I should draw maps of my thoughts more throughout the country. I haven't done them for years because I haven't had much time to do them outside of a write-up like this. I hope this at least helps illustrate more why the pattern came about to what it did. If people had hangover from the -EPO that was present in November im sorry those folks did. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

4 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Yes im all for talking about storms when consistency arrives but to have continual consistency 9 days out is rather impressive let alone 5 days out. When comparing something a day out of being considered long range to something that now is within about 5 days will throw chaos into the air. Unfortunately no one ever said the -PNA would disappear, the model threw out the chance of a fix in that pattern doesn't mean it was correct 9 days out this is the by product of leading into a -NAO pattern with a -PNA present. The pattern was always expected to be -NAO/-PNA when we are trusting models more than 5 days out we are bound to fall into some major depression over a failed outcomes if we think that sticks around for that long. The best thing to do outside of day 5 is look in the upper levels forget about the surface temps and storm locations in a long range thread leave those for their own specific threads an preferably not more than 7 days out don't get me wrong I love seeing those fantasy storms, but that is all they are fantasy storms.

Look for key things in the pattern -NAO/ +PNA/-EPO/ -AO to stay around consistently we may have a situation of a deepening -NAO and a -AO which means yes we are blocked in the Atlantic retrograding into a better position with time. The -AO floods the mid latitudes with cold but it doesn't mean it gets aimed at us. The lack of the +PNA/-EPO combo or one or the other is the biggest reasoning on no cold. The -PNA is holding with consistent west coast lows and -PDO present. We got a taste of what a wave pattern could do in November from the MJO. the -EPO happened to be very much present but we still very much had a -PNA and barely a -NAO more of an east based which allows the cold to be further east. If it weren't for the initial warmth in the beginning of the month it would have been a really cold November, alas things happen. We got an active east coast storm track with numerous storms along 95 but without a west based -NAO they were left to go further inland and faster with flow through the east coast. -PNA would still have yielded a cold enough pattern with the -EPO but with an east based -NAO it just didn't work. 

Now if we look at our current situation we still have the -PNA ever present, we now have a west based -NAO but we are missing the cold component which is the -EPO. If that came about it would have been great but that was rather far in the future and honestly just felt too rushed without a reasoning behind the change, also given we are still in a +WPO pattern. This gives us a better understanding that things really need to come together right for big time storms and how lucky we were for many many years. I like the -NAO present I like a -PNA if we are not having a -EPO pattern because it at least means an active storm track yes we may not get snow every time from every storm but that is where we are in the pattern and we need to understand it for what it is.

I feel like I should draw maps of my thoughts more throughout the country. I haven't done them for years because I haven't had much time to do them outside of a write-up like this. I hope this at least helps illustrate more why the pattern came about to what it did. If people had hangover from the -EPO that was present in November im sorry those folks did. 

I enjoyed reading the synopsis of "what went wrong" and what to look to for in the near term for improvement 👍 

[so_whats_happening]

55 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Give me cold and dry ALLLLL day over above average and flooding rains in December 

My expectations for winter are probably far less than most actually. Basically anything but well above average temps is a win in my book

Yea I get it. We honestly have a far better chance at a below average summer month than we do at a below average winter month. It isn't the end of snow by any means but it does mean we melt snow quicker and make the chances of getting a snowstorm a bit more challenging because we do need things to align up better. Who knows maybe in another 10 years we may go through one heck of a change and cold winter months solidly. 

[Iceresistance]

5 hours ago, SOMOSnow said:

Wow, I had no idea we lived so close!

I live in Central Oklahoma, my Great-Grandparents live in Springfield, MO. I try to visit then this Christmas for the first time since 2019. 

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

In the end, December gonna December. Enjoy the torch, everyone.

Not if I'm on the Temperature Rollercoaster!

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I enjoyed reading the synopsis of "what went wrong" and what to look to for in the near term for improvement 👍 

Now it also doesn't mean we won't have a psuedo +PNA look that comes about when this takes hold that could offer up some potential here and there. That very well still could occur but it will be transient at best until we get a better established pacific pattern. Which by then we may lose the -NAO but that is still rather far out in time unfortunately and ever more changing then the 5 day forecast. It looks as though most models are getting the idea of the block holding on. Now is the time we watch how the pacific goes, again we still very well could have sneaky storm in the next two weeks that comes about.

[so_whats_happening]

While we talk about the east coast pattern though the west is cashing in on some nice precip and mountain snows that is very much needed out that way. That is the most positive thing I take out of all this. Is the slow erosion within the central portions of the country for drought coming up and that the west coast is getting some nice snowfalls. I honestly hope it continues out that way for rain and snowfall they need it as unfortunate as it would be for our potential winter over here in the east. 

[SOMOSnow]

4 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

Yeah, but the next 2 weeks look to be almost record setting warm. Going to take a huge turnaround on the back end just to salvage an average month.

Huh? 

[SOMOSnow]

50 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I live in Central Oklahoma, my Great-Grandparents live in Springfield, MO. I try to visit then this Christmas for the first time since 2019. 

I'm 40 miles East of Springfield.

[MaineJay]

The EPS shifted from bringing in the cold next week, largely because the Hudson Bay vortex is now progged to dissipate/retreat north, whereas before, it dug it down into the CONUS.

3/12z

4 days ago

[SOMOSnow]

Day 10-16 of 12z GEFS 2m temps. 

[cperry29]

30 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

While we talk about the east coast pattern though the west is cashing in on some nice precip and mountain snows that is very much needed out that way. That is the most positive thing I take out of all this. Is the slow erosion within the central portions of the country for drought coming up and that the west coast is getting some nice snowfalls. I honestly hope it continues out that way for rain and snowfall they need it as unfortunate as it would be for our potential winter over here in the east. 

Love your insight and analysis. There’s been some professional outlets hyping early December…. I don’t subscribe to their services, I just see what they post online.

From Nov. 24th:

I can’t speak for anyone else but I’ve seen the “cold and snowy December” hype for the midwest also. Perhaps I should stay away from Twitter mets 😂

[beaver56]

2 hours ago, cperry29 said:

Love your insight and analysis. There’s been some professional outlets hyping early December…. I don’t subscribe to their services, I just see what they post online.

From Nov. 24th:

I can’t speak for anyone else but I’ve seen the “cold and snowy December” hype for the midwest also. Perhaps I should stay away from Twitter mets 😂

IndyWx and BAM have a lot of parallels. I have seen some videos with both featured in it together. That said, Bill at IndyWx seems to stand on what he forecast and flip-flops very rarely. I like his forecasting methods way more than the other. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by beaver56

[Ingyball]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

The EPS shifted from bringing in the cold next week, largely because the Hudson Bay vortex is now progged to dissipate/retreat north, whereas before, it dug it down into the CONUS.

3/12z

4 days ago

This is actually more favorable for the Plains. We need the rain

[Ingyball]

GFS continues to have a monster fantasy storm. I'd hate the ice but man we really need QPF here. I'll take a torchy winter if it means rain. (a la 2011-12 in Texas)

[SOMOSnow]

8 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

GFS continues to have a monster fantasy storm. I'd hate the ice but man we really need QPF here. I'll take a torchy winter if it means rain. (a la 2011-12 in Texas)

Nothing worse than Winter rain. Let it snow! 

[Ingyball]

3 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said:

Nothing worse than Winter rain. Let it snow! 

When you're in a drought as bad as the one here you don't get picky lol. I definitely prefer snow, but winter rain is better than bone dry. It's definitely a difference in area though. In Ohio you really don't worry about rain as much so you really want snow. Here in Kansas I just saw our 2nd wettest May on record turn into our driest July 1st through October 1st on record. 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Ingyball

[1816]

6 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

When you're in a drought as bad as the one here you don't get picky lol. I definitely prefer snow, but winter rain is better than bone dry. It's definitely a difference in area though. In Ohio you really don't worry about rain as much so you really want snow. Here in Kansas I just saw our 2nd wettest May on record turn into our driest July 1st through October 1st on record. 

Dust bowl says holy shit that's crazy. 

[SOMOSnow]

37 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

When you're in a drought as bad as the one here you don't get picky lol. I definitely prefer snow, but winter rain is better than bone dry. It's definitely a difference in area though. In Ohio you really don't worry about rain as much so you really want snow. Here in Kansas I just saw our 2nd wettest May on record turn into our driest July 1st through October 1st on record. 

Yea, I've been there, but I still don't want Winter rain. I get what you're saying, but even in those rainstorms it's miserable for me thinking, wow what a waste that it isn't colder. I get wanting precip, but I will never pull for that precip to just be rain. I know that's not what you're saying per se, but just explaining my thoughts in a bit more detail. 

[Ingyball]

Just now, SOMOSnow said:

Yea, I've been there, but I still don't want Winter rain. I get what you're saying, but even in those rainstorms it's miserable for me thinking, wow what a waste that it isn't colder. I get wanting precip, but I will never pull for that precip to just be rain. I know that's not what you're saying per se, but just explaining my thoughts in a bit more detail. 

Yeah I understand that. The only p-type I actively root against however is ice. I hate that stuff lol. At that point I root for rain if I know snow isn't possible. 

[SOMOSnow]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

Yeah I understand that. The only p-type I actively root against however is ice. I hate that stuff lol. At that point I root for rain if I know snow isn't possible. 

I can't even bring myself to root for rain then. Probably should, but nope. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Maybe the climate truly is changing. Decembers rarely get cold and snow anymore. 

[Ingyball]

The GFS isn't giving up with this mid-month storm. Yes please! 

 

Edit: I-70 cashes in too I say lock it in!

Edited December 4, 2022 by Ingyball

[Ingyball]

Some of our northeast friends get in on it too this GFS run.