cperry29 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, cperry29 said: BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread. Now its a normal December lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, cperry29 said: BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread. Salvaging the backhalf of Dec is possible if we can at least get a netrual PNA, depending on where one lives Edited December 3, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Or looking at the PNA might be the wrong view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted December 3, 2022 Moderators Share Posted December 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, cperry29 said: BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread. 19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Salvaging the backhalf of Dec is possible if we can at least get a netrual PNA, depending on where one lives Headlines in my fantasy world.... COLD TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 JB still hopeful for the backhalf of Dec. I expect no different from him lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: JB still hopeful for the backhalf of Dec. I expect no different from him lol Honestly people are all over the board. I've never seen such divergent forecasts as I'm seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: I had a streak of lightning in Springfield, MO within 1-2 days of Christmas for 4-5 years in a row! Wow, I had no idea we lived so close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just doesn’t happen anymore throw December out it’ll be January as usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Just doesn’t happen anymore throw December out it’ll be January as usual You do realize it’s 12/3? Edited December 3, 2022 by Mulaman984 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said: You do realize it’s 12/3? Yeah I know what it is but we don’t go consistently into winter over the last almost decade til after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, cperry29 said: BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread. The Indiana Ocean? That near Lake erie? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 In the end, December gonna December. Enjoy the torch, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: In the end, December gonna December. Enjoy the torch, everyone. It’s 12/3. Lol. Relax. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said: It’s 12/3. Lol. Relax. Yeah, but the next 2 weeks look to be almost record setting warm. Going to take a huge turnaround on the back end just to salvage an average month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Watching models "miraculously" switch to this torch for the 1h of December is like watching OSU go from dominating to straight implosion last week, you keep watching the 4th quarter hoping for some big game changing play that never happened yet you sit there and watch every bleeding second of it 🤣 buckeye nation knows exactly what I'm talking about 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) Im sorry record setting warmth? I highly doubt temps near the 50s maybe even low end 60s in the lower ohio valley and mid atlantic at the beginning of december is record warmth. I find these anomaly maps misguiding sometimes. Our average as we approach mid december is low 40s, in southern pa. Usually second or third week of january is our bottom in temps and that goes to about 36 area. Being 2-5 degrees above average is not a major torch. The major heat was always expected to stay along the gulf coast. Just wait until the models actually show the block in place. The cold cant be here without a -epo, this has bren discussed in many many posts. -nao simply slows storm progression down and pushes the storm track further south. It does not bring cold. The only place it actually brings cold to is europe in the form of ne flow across the country from cold origins. In the us we need a nw flow for this that is why the -epo is so important for cold and sustained cold. Can we please stop with the doom and gloom posts it really is getting rather annoying. Edited December 3, 2022 by so_whats_happening 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) Anthony was spot on all along with these tweets in mid-NOV Anythony said DEC would start off inititally looking like1974-75 temps. What's that look like: So, Anthony tried to te everyone. But he said next round of -EPO would be after mid-DEC & it gets cold. Just thought I'd remind everyone so they don't throw Anthony in the camp of early DEC cold. The models tried to do it 10 or so days early which is not unusual. I bit. But delayed does not equal denied. Everything that will lead to the -EPO, improved PNA, & continue -NAO is in motion....which Anthony has been on board about. I highly encourage following Eric & Anthony to work through noise. I still think we'll see the best winter weather in the east half of U.S. since 2010, 13 & 17 Until the -EPO episode & cold I won't be back. I can't handle the delusional "cancel winter" posts. Ruins my holiday spirit. 😆 Edited December 3, 2022 by Grace 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) Next 10 days according to 12z GFS & 12z Canadian... Edited December 3, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Next 10 days according to 12z GFS & 12z Canadian... It's hard to watch but will cling to all the chatter about 2h December...some runs have the new and improved target of dec 14th+ original was 8th-9th so ill continue to watch the 6-10 day averages of the ensembles for the true progression Edited December 3, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: It's hard to watch but will cling to all the chatter about 2h December...some runs have the new and improved target of dec 14th+ original was 8th-9th so ill continue to watch the 6-10 day averages of the ensembles for the true progression I gotta ask what were you expecting to happen around the 8-9th? A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm? I think this will help clarify why you and some others are so disappointed. Im not sure why everyone is disappointed. These patterns literally do not flip on a dime. They take time to set up and time push into the correct locations. We are developing the -NAO right now off the eastern side of Greenland this won't go into full effect over greenland until about the 7-8th this doesn't instantly mean the pattern flips and we instantly go to cool or even stormy. It takes time to still back the flow behind it so yes the SE ridge will still be present leading up to the -NAO taking over it was always a matter of when that would occur. Maybe this part wasn't articulated that well so maybe that is where the confusion comes in. The 12th-16th has been a target area of mine for awhile this is when the -NAO is in full force and everything has slowed down and backed flow. This is the time frame we probably stand the best chance for a bowling ball like system across the country. Again we need to remember -NAO without a dislodging portion such as the -EPO and +PNA will not spill cold throughout the east. A neutral PNA and -PNA throws cold into the upper midwest and inter mountains/ west coast respectively. This has also been highlighted leading into the -NAO and would be a border situation temp wise across much of the Ohio valley and mid atlantic because of this -PNA/-NAO combo but the majority of the heat should stay in the deep south especially as the -NAO takes full hold of the pattern after the 8th . Until we see continual improvement on the west coast this will be the case as the -NAO probably holds until just around christmas where we break the pattern again and probably play repeat in due time. This pattern still yields an active track across the country just not the super cold some runs did show that as a possibility (talking the -EPO) but that is too early, I personally thought after mid month with how the pattern would take time to get a better handle on that potential and it seems Anthony and Eric both highlight this very well. Overall though we still may very well end the month above normal throughout the east which is fine there is a reason why it came to that way. I personally would rather have above normal and near average temps. Offers better chance for storm activity, having super cold leads to suppression and depression for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 I am just hoping for some rain and ground saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: I gotta ask what were you expecting to happen around the 8-9th? A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm? I think this will help clarify why you and some others are so disappointed. "A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm?" Is that not what we're all here for? In December your lucky to get one of those, let alone both...so I guess your simple answer is yes? This: Is far more appealing Than this: Even without the storm This: Is far more appealing Than this: Regardless of any accompanying storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 (edited) Give me cold and dry ALLLLL day over above average and flooding rains in December My expectations for winter are probably far less than most actually. Basically anything but well above average temps is a win in my book Edited December 3, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 43 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Give me cold and dry ALLLLL day over above average and flooding rains in December My expectations for winter are probably far less than most actually. Basically anything but well above average temps is a win in my book Yet far above average is what we get, year after year after year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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