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Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks


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8 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread.

 

Salvaging the backhalf of Dec is possible if we can at least get a netrual PNA, depending on where one lives

global_pna_2022120300.png

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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26 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

BAM walking back a bit on the cold. He followed with a few more posts but I won’t clutter up this thread.

 

 

19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Salvaging the backhalf of Dec is possible if we can at least get a netrual PNA, depending on where one lives

global_pna_2022120300.png

Headlines in my fantasy world....

COLD TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST!!!

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1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

JB still hopeful for the backhalf of Dec. I expect no different from him lol

 

Honestly people are all over the board. I've never seen such divergent forecasts as I'm seeing right now. 

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6 minutes ago, Mulaman984 said:

It’s 12/3. Lol. Relax. 

Yeah, but the next 2 weeks look to be almost record setting warm. Going to take a huge turnaround on the back end just to salvage an average month.

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Watching models "miraculously" switch to this torch for the 1h of December is like watching OSU go from dominating to straight implosion last week, you keep watching the 4th quarter hoping for some big game changing play that never happened yet you sit there and watch every bleeding second of it 🤣 buckeye nation knows exactly what I'm talking about

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Im sorry record setting warmth? I highly doubt temps near the 50s maybe even low end 60s in the lower ohio valley and mid atlantic at the beginning of december is record warmth. I find these anomaly maps misguiding sometimes. Our average as we approach mid december is low 40s, in southern pa. Usually second or third week of january is our bottom in temps and that goes to about 36 area. Being 2-5 degrees above average is not a major torch. The major heat was always expected to stay along the gulf coast. Just wait until the models actually show the block in place. The cold cant be here without a -epo, this has bren discussed in many many posts. -nao simply slows storm progression down and pushes the storm track further south. It does not bring cold. The only place it actually brings cold to is europe in the form of ne flow across the country from cold origins. In the us we need a nw flow for this that is why the -epo is so important for cold and sustained cold. Can we please stop with the doom and gloom posts it really is getting rather annoying.

Edited by so_whats_happening
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Anthony was spot on all along with these tweets in mid-NOV

Anythony said DEC would start off inititally looking like1974-75 temps. What's that look like:

 

Screenshot_20221203-112111_Chrome.jpg.5f095c6bcc027b893853e56c5c40e884.jpg

 

So, Anthony tried to te everyone. 

But he said next round of -EPO would be after mid-DEC & it gets cold. Just thought I'd remind everyone so they don't throw Anthony in the camp of early DEC cold. 

The models tried to do it 10 or so days early which is not unusual. I bit. But delayed does not equal denied. Everything that will lead to the -EPO, improved PNA, & continue -NAO is in motion....which Anthony has been on board about.

I highly encourage following Eric & Anthony to work through noise. I still think we'll see the best winter weather in the east half of U.S. since 2010, 13 & 17 

Until the -EPO episode & cold I won't be back. I can't handle the delusional "cancel winter" posts. Ruins my holiday spirit. 😆 

Edited by Grace
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21 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Next 10 days according to 12z GFS & 12z Canadian...

 

gfs_T2ma_us_fh0-240.gif

e69feaf4-d4f4-4a12-a2b5-f89dbc95a254.gif

It's hard to watch but will cling to all the chatter about 2h December...some runs have the new and improved target of dec 14th+ original was 8th-9th so ill continue to watch the 6-10 day averages of the ensembles for the true progression 

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It's hard to watch but will cling to all the chatter about 2h December...some runs have the new and improved target of dec 14th+ original was 8th-9th so ill continue to watch the 6-10 day averages of the ensembles for the true progression 

I gotta ask what were you expecting to happen around the 8-9th? A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm? I think this will help clarify why you and some others are so disappointed. Im not sure why everyone is disappointed. These patterns literally do not flip on a dime. They take time to set up and time push into the correct locations. We are developing the -NAO right now off the eastern side of Greenland this won't go into full effect over greenland until about the 7-8th this doesn't instantly mean the pattern flips and we instantly go to cool or even stormy. It takes time to still back the flow behind it so yes the SE ridge will still be present leading up to the -NAO taking over it was always a matter of when that would occur. Maybe this part wasn't articulated that well so maybe that is where the confusion comes in.

The 12th-16th has been a target area of mine for awhile this is when the -NAO is in full force and everything has slowed down and backed flow. This is the time frame we probably stand the best chance for a bowling ball like system across the country.  Again we need to remember -NAO without a dislodging portion such as the -EPO and +PNA will not spill cold throughout the east. A neutral PNA and -PNA throws cold into the upper midwest and inter mountains/ west coast respectively. This has also been highlighted leading into the -NAO and would be a border situation temp wise across much of the Ohio valley and mid atlantic because of this -PNA/-NAO combo but the majority of the heat should stay in the deep south especially as the -NAO takes full hold of the pattern after the 8th . Until we see continual improvement on the west coast this will be the case as the -NAO probably holds until just around christmas where we break the pattern again and probably play repeat in due time. This pattern still yields an active track across the country just not the super cold some runs did show that as a possibility (talking the -EPO) but that is too early, I personally thought after mid month with how the pattern would take time to get a better handle on that potential and it seems Anthony and Eric both highlight this very well.

Overall though we still may very well end the month above normal throughout the east which is fine there is a reason why it came to that way. I personally would rather have above normal and near average temps. Offers better chance for storm activity, having super cold leads to suppression and depression for many.

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3 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I gotta ask what were you expecting to happen around the 8-9th? A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm? I think this will help clarify why you and some others are so disappointed.

"A blast of cold that would last a couple weeks or perhaps a storm?"

Is that not what we're all here for? In December your lucky to get one of those, let alone both...so I guess your simple answer is yes?

This:

Is far more appealing

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png.55e00038108adf413c5b4ae7da74efc9.png

Than this:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png.1ab28eb132945463da88515f25da20e6.png

 

Even without the storm

This:

Is far more appealing 

ecmwf_T2ma_us_37.png.f95131e7786f9055de927e1fa2915eb8.png

 

Than this:

Regardless of any accompanying storm

ecmwf_T2ma_us_23.png.d2deb32052ced255d6a092b16b528fa0.png

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Give me cold and dry ALLLLL day over above average and flooding rains in December 

My expectations for winter are probably far less than most actually. Basically anything but well above average temps is a win in my book

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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43 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Give me cold and dry ALLLLL day over above average and flooding rains in December 

My expectations for winter are probably far less than most actually. Basically anything but well above average temps is a win in my book

Yet far above average is what we get,  year after year after year

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