Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Iceresistance]

My Radio Teacher confirmed that 1983, 1989, and 1990 featured the first half of December being warm only to be countered with Nasty Cold in the 2nd half. Even though that may only work for the Southern Plains since he has lived in Oklahoma for all of his life.

[beaver56]

There is absolutely no science, and some may say merit, to this statement I am going to make.  I truly feel that we are witnessing a climatology shift in seasons.  Hear me out!  I have no education but do observe and live a lot outside in my work and personal life.  I truly believe that seasons seem to lag a month in the last 10 years or so.  Decembers are more like our old Novembers and March is like the old Februarys of the past.  I coach a lot of spring sports and can tell you we are seeing cold well into early May for the last several years.  Do we have temp swings in those months?  Yes.  But, it really seems that our late fall extends later and late winter extends further into spring.  Now like I said, that is just an observation, but the seasons seem off.  I have heard a lot of hunters and farmers make very similar comments as well.  

I have started to set my expectations of winter starting mid January and last until mid March with some fun added events of "fun" on the front and back of that.  This way I don't keep getting upset because of the lack of cold and snow during the season I love the most from Thanksgiving to Christmas!

P.S. - This isn't intended to start a debate about climate change, so know this wasn't the intention of the post.

[Iceresistance]

 

[1816]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

 

Bro didn't you read the last page. The gfs ensembles said there be some warm anomalies 10 days from now. We are back to torchcember for right now.  Gtfo with this. 

[Ingyball]

If you guys try to stare down every deterministic run of each model looking for the cold outbreak you're going to end up pulling your hair out and go insane. Heck even looking at day to day ensemble temperature anomalies is not a great idea. There's still too much uncertainty within the ensembles at this point for their to be a strong signal. I've seen it far too often where both deterministic and probabilistic models do not forecast cold outbreaks well at all even though the signals are there. IIRC for the February 2021 Plains cold outbreak the models were only showing a typical cold outbreak and not the record breaking one that was witnessed. Until the models lock into something it just won't show up consistently. 

 

As a forecaster I have to start with what I do know and not what I don't know. In this case what I do know is that all the global ensembles are still developing a significant Greenland block beginning in the next 2 to 3 days. We know that these blocks favor cold filtering into the U.S despite the models not showing it. We'll know in just a few days if the models were overzealous with the Greenland block and if they were then you can start tempering expectations on potential cold in a couple of weeks. If not, then we're still looking at a cold outbreak this month, especially when that MJO comes back around to phase 7 and 8.  

[Iceresistance]

15 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Bro didn't you read the last page. The gfs ensembles said there be some warm anomalies 10 days from now. We are back to torchcember for right now.  Gtfo with this. 

The model that was shown was the EPS, the GEFS is in the middle of the dust storm that the GFS is also in.

 

Also what @Ingyball said in the previous post, we can't go too crazy over one run.

Edited December 2, 2022 by Iceresistance

[junior]

The 12z Euro control for mid Dec please.

[Ingyball]

That Canadian winter storm at the end of the run would be rough here. First a light icing event a few days before in Kansas. More impactful for Missouri. 

 

 

Then a more significant freezing rain event at the end of the run. For Wichita the Canadian has 0.14" of freezing rain and 1.7" of sleet (according to weatherbell) yeah, that would cause problems. 

[1816]

16 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The model that was shown was the EPS, the GEFS is in the middle of the dust storm that the GFS is also in.

 

Also what @Ingyball said in the previous post, we can't go too crazy over one run.

Guess everyone missed the sarcasm from the guy calling out all the parties in here for 3 days now that have been flip flopping every single run when clearly:

1. There is something afoot that is probably out of the ordinary

2. There's crazy cold pooled just north of the border

3.  We are clearly not getting a coast to coast 60s/40s pacific December for a change. 

4. The models are completely and obviously confounded way beyond even their own low standards and shouldn't be trusted beyond a couple days. 

[StormfanaticInd]

The gfs can't handle the block. I like our chances for snow starting mid- late next week on

[Ohiobuckeye45]

I was posting the ensembles 6-10 day consistently it was showing cold working east and suddenly I'm seeing subtle hints in everyone's posts about posting them when it's flipped.

I've seen a few mention the chance for December to start warm but I haven't read anything about anyone "canceling December"

So I'll continue to rain or shine lol

12z eps/18z gefs 6-10 day. This is afterall...the LONG RANGE winter thread

Edited December 3, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Pghsnow]

[Ingyball]

Some more CPC maps. Looks like they're on board with cold the 2nd half of the month. 

 

[Ingyball]

29 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

I was posting the ensembles 6-10 day consistently it was showing cold working east and suddenly I'm seeing subtle hints in everyone's posts about posting them when it's flipped.

I've seen a few mention the chance for December to start warm but I haven't read anything about anyone "canceling December"

So I'll continue to rain or shine lol

12z eps 6-10 day. This is afterall...the LONG RANGE winter thread

My post wasn't towards the actual posting of the 6-10 day maps. It was towards the posters that ride of die them as if it means that's exactly what will happen, I've seen the ensembles lose cold way too much in that time range. That said CPC is favoring the 8-14 day period anyways so we're still looking at something closer to mid month like what was thought. 

[beaver56]

29 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Some more CPC maps. Looks like they're on board with cold the 2nd half of the month. 

 

The simple fact they are buying it says something at least for me. I just don't want 62 and short weather on Christmas day in Indiana like last year. 

[StormfanaticInd]

3 hours ago, Ingyball said:

That Canadian winter storm at the end of the run would be rough here. First a light icing event a few days before in Kansas. More impactful for Missouri. 

 

 

Then a more significant freezing rain event at the end of the run. For Wichita the Canadian has 0.14" of freezing rain and 1.7" of sleet (according to weatherbell) yeah, that would cause problems. 

This could be possible given the look. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

46 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

The simple fact they are buying it says something at least for me. I just don't want 62 and short weather on Christmas day in Indiana like last year. 

It's the worst, the early part of the last 10 years always featured a pattern flip to warm just in time for Christmas minus I think it was 2020...this is how I imagine mean temperatures 😄

Edited December 3, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[MidwestWX]

It should be an interesting and [possibly] active month. Sit back and relax... don't try to over analyze each deterministic or ensemble run! 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just a thought - I think some of you may be misdiagnosing how much 'run-to-run living & dying' is actually taking place in this thread. I think most of what you're referencing is lighthearted banter with a smidgen of sarcasm. Nobody that has been on these forums for years takes much of anything seriously at hour 200+. Going to be a fun tracking season & hopefully an enjoyable December - we're way overdue for one!

[Ingyball]

LOCK IT IN!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z 6-10 day

[Indygirl]

13 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

The gfs can't handle the block. I like our chances for snow starting mid- late next week on

The Facebook weather groups are all posting Dec 10- as the start of a few rounds of snow in the Indiana areas. 
I  thought  for sure I’d see a thread started here by now too(?) but I’m not seeing anything. 

[Iceresistance]

11 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

It's the worst, the early part of the last 10 years always featured a pattern flip to warm just in time for Christmas minus I think it was 2020...this is how I imagine mean temperatures 😄

I had a streak of lightning in Springfield, MO within 1-2 days of Christmas for 4-5 years in a row!

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 hour ago, Indygirl said:

The Facebook weather groups are all posting Dec 10- as the start of a few rounds of snow in the Indiana areas. 
I  thought  for sure I’d see a thread started here by now too(?) but I’m not seeing anything. 

Nothing consistently showing up yet. Models are struggling like they always do at that range.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Hard to deny the consistency the last several runs.