Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted December 2, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 2, 2022 6z GFS again completely demolishes the -NAO around the 12th. Maybe it is just mid range blues the GFS is having. We saw this earlier in the season with GFS and Euro. Euro picked up on the pattern while the GFS struggled around this time. I believe this was during the November cold outbreak across the country, I'd have to look back at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 00z cohort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Nice! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Nice! Nor'Easter incoming! 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The gfs is really struggling with this block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: GEFS and EPS 6-10 day moving backwards a bit Posting these 5 days always seems to be a kiss of death for cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SOMOSnow said: Posting these 5 days always seems to be a kiss of death for cold I guess at least IMBY, I'll take it. Seasonal temps are better than a blowtorch. It just sucks that it now takes a monumental block setup just to get temps down to normal levels in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 GEFS loves to tease in the long range...watch what has happened to the strong cold signal now that we are inside of 10 days... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The GFS is still showing wildly different solutions on every run. The dust has yet to settle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 If this December that looked so promising turns into a torch that would truly suck. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: If this December that looked so promising turns into a torch that would truly suck. Lol Yep...I was resigned to the fact that every December from now on would be a torch, but I was drawn back in by how good it looked, only to now be let down yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6-10 day update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6-10 day update Just wow. You can only laugh. I will say I think the gfs is still too warm Edited December 2, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 All I can say is you all have a lot more faith than I do in these ensembles to nail temps almost 2 weeks away. If I had a dollar for every time it was wrong, I'd have some dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: Posting these 5 days always seems to be a kiss of death for cold The calendar flipping to December is what does that 🤣 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: You can only laugh. No, vomiting is an option too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I dont think anyone is taking anything as gospel but if we were all getting exuberant over blocking 11-15 days out I don't see anything wrong with reigning expectations back in 6-10 days out. It's by no means any type of December cancel...it just more looks like par for the course for early December, which is fine but when we started with expections throwing around analogs from some of the best winters ever, some of the air gets let out of the balloon when a fly in the ointment appears, which in this case looks to be the lack of any western ridging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 But if there's a silver lining, it's here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I dont think anyone is taking anything as gospel but if we were all getting exuberant over blocking 11-15 days out I don't see anything wrong with reigning expectations back in 6-10 days out. It's by no means any type of December cancel...it just more looks like par for the course for early December, which is fine but when we started with expections throwing around analogs from some of the best winters ever, some of the air gets let out of the balloon when a fly in the ointment appears, which in this case looks to be the lack of any western ridging 1983, 1989, 1990, and 2009 also may have featured warmer early Decembers, then came the late month and it got nasty cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Not a bad look. I suspect the gefs is struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 2, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 2, 2022 The genius of the Ukie, is that it only goes out to like 144-168 hours... 2 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, MaineJay said: The genius of the Ukie, is that it only goes out to like 144-168 hours... Bingo...I hate that any model goes beyond hour 240...Inside of 150, we at least have a pretty good idea on general temperatures/storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: If this December that looked so promising turns into a torch that would truly suck. Lol Wxdisco for the win.lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 (edited) So it begins, the writing off of December on December 1. If things don't improve in a couple days, we will be writing off the whole Winter already.... yet again. Gets a bit tiresome. Edited December 2, 2022 by SOMOSnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 2, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 2, 2022 14 hours ago, Grace said: East Asia DEC 3-12 compared to its correlation to East U.S. DEC 9-18. Seoul S.Korea correlates with Paducah, Ky for reference purposes. 🤔 Granted East Asia may not be modeled accurately but the period is much closer than its correlation to East U.S. 11th-14th seems interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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