Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[JDClapper]

Is December cancelled yet? 😭

[1816]

31 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

Is December cancelled yet? 😭

Cancelled and reinstated at least 5 times. It just depends whose tweets these folks are looking at right now. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by 1816

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

Is December cancelled yet? 😭

No. December has just barely started!

[MesoscaleBanding]

Models continue to toy with us - I see the Ohio Valley is looking at back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back rainstorms over the first 50% of December on the latest GFS. Sounds about right.

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by MesoscaleBanding

[Grace]

7 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The MJO has just gotten into Phase 8 and is expected to be in the 'null' for a while after that.

Yep, & it'll loop back into 6,8,8,1. Probably forvall of DEC. When it's gets back to West that's when we have another big -EPO.

[Grace]

Today's EPS weeklies update looks too good to be true for all of DEC. 

**My stance on weeklies is that since we have trouble with pattern in the 11-15 day just know take with a grain of salt. With that said in this case it's reinforcing what a lot of thoughts are apart from the models for this month.

**Also, I've brought this up before but I've experienced a large drop in BSR correlation on 500mb pattern in some La Nina's in the past. 2010-11, 2013-14 & 17-18 to some degree it busted badly on cold. It's already occurred in NOV this year. So I caution those who use it as I do. It's just an observation.

[Grace]

2 hours ago, 1816 said:

Cancelled and reinstated at least 5 times. It just depends whose tweets these folks are looking at right now. 

 

No it depends on the latest model runs. So basically every 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z it changes. Makes my head want to explode. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

On a positive note, might get to cut the grass in my shorts one last time 💩

[beaver56]

24 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Models continue to toy with us - I see the Ohio Valley is looking at back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back rainstorms over the first 50% of December on the latest GFS. Sounds about right.

 

Truthfully, as dry as it is at our place I would welcome it with open arms. 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Just an 18z operational run (grain of salt), but that was horrific

[Cdfarabaugh]

34 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Just an 18z operational run (grain of salt), but that was horrific

That looks like such a mess that it makes zero sense 

[Pghsnow]

That may have been the worst ops run I have ever seen based on expectations.🤣 Oh well in 6 hours it will change even more no doubt. 

[NWOhioChaser]

4 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Is December cancelled yet? 😭

Don’t worry. We’re working our way there. So exciting how things progress.  Now we can all focus our energy on this thread.

[so_whats_happening]

9 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

 

 

Not a terrible look but would like to see that axis further west and not on the east coast. The +pna/-epo would enhance this pattern so much better but that is a weak and messy signal out there. We shall see how it goes toward mid month maybe the pattern can enhance a little better and bit more or a weaker nao signal could help.

It is all about balance but that does look like a decently cold signal. Also for those mentioning mjo add a week or so onto your timeline. Actions from the mjo take time to work in the system so until it emerges from the cod it tends to hold the pattern it last left the octant, which in this case is 8. Very much like the pattern in november except this sets up a nice block which should get a solid two weeks of work in that region and influence our pattern.

[NWOhioChaser]

First week needs a scoot the f••• outta the way of in order to see more clearly.

Edited December 2, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[1816]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

 

No it depends on the latest model runs. So basically every 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z it changes. Makes my head want to explode. 

I've heard of model hugging but this windshield wiper bullshit in here is making me crazy.  The same handful of cats are going back and forth from its the coldest December ever to global warming means no cold whatsoever in December ever again. and its changing every 12 hours. Pick a side and roll with it people. The data is right there, draw your own conclusion. 

[Iceresistance]

Y'all need to stop chasing rabbits into rabbit holes. The 12z CFS model would like to entertain you for the Southern CONUS for mid to late December and into January 2023. 

[Ingyball]

Ice is right about the 12z CFS being impressive. I say we lock this run in baby! Everyone gets a little something except maybe those right on the coast (of course with it being the CFS it'll never make out that rain snow line). If December is even half as active I bet a good chunk of us will be happy. CFS would be our snowiest December ever, perhaps month lol

[SOMOSnow]

36 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

Ice is right about the 12z CFS being impressive. I say we lock this run in baby! Everyone gets a little something except maybe those right on the coast (of course with it being the CFS it'll never make out that rain snow line). If December is even half as active I bet a good chunk of us will be happy. CFS would be our snowiest December ever, perhaps month lol

I'm right in that Southern Missouri bullseye! 🎯❄️ Please 🔒 it in!

[Grace]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

Ice is right about the 12z CFS being impressive. I say we lock this run in baby! Everyone gets a little something except maybe those right on the coast (of course with it being the CFS it'll never make out that rain snow line). If December is even half as active I bet a good chunk of us will be happy. CFS would be our snowiest December ever, perhaps month lol

Fantastic run for sure. 😆 

I'd be ecstatic to get stuck in that pattern.

[Grace]

 

[Grace]

East Asia DEC 3-12 compared to its correlation to East U.S. DEC 9-18. Seoul S.Korea correlates with Paducah, Ky for reference purposes. 

🤔

Granted East Asia may not be modeled accurately but the period is much closer than its correlation to East U.S.

[so_whats_happening]

There are huge discrepancies with operational GFS and its ensembles. Operational tries to kick out the -NAO after less than a week in the area to have it rebuild toward the end of the run. Ensembles form the block and retrograde it from eastern -NAO into a Baffin bay ridge. This is due to the piling up of storms across Europe which backs flow up through much of the Atlantic and subsequently into eastern North America. The issue I am having with the operational is the constant flopping around. It goes from full bore block for almost 2 weeks to kicking it out stage right after a few days. There is 0 consistency with the operational hence the constant up and down of emotions on forums. The one thing that at least seems to be reasonable at this moment is storms go through the lakes leading up to about the 7th when things really build the block up and buckle the pattern. After that comes the array of solutions we are seeing. Euro and CMC seem to be fairly inline with each other after this happens to about the 12/13th area. With a nice block forming around Greenland and cutoff low SE of Newfoundland. This allows storms to sneak underneath the ridge and go out into the Atlantic, GFS on the other hand is saying nope lets keep riding storms into eastern Canada and knock out the ridge. This doesn't seem logically correct as that is not the path of least resistance, undercutting would be the way to go. So while it doesn't produce a large east coast storm it still allows pieces of energy to move through flow and bring with it precip and chances of snow in interior locations. 

Here is the 12z runs of the EPS and Euro operational runs. You can see fairly good agreement between the two. Around the 10th there seems to be a slight weakening of the -NAO take shape where the top gets pushed into Scandi region, but overall still fairly well intact. You can see the suppressed storm track through much of the mid latitudes in Europe and eastern north America due to this -NAO still very much present.

 

Now we take a look at the latest GFS and the GEFS. You can see on the GEFS the overall idea is for the -NAO to stay around weakening as time goes on. By about the start of the third week of December it is there still but in a much weaker state as expected. These don't stick around forever but they can re-emerge later on as the pattern reloads giving the idea of it staying around for quite some time. However the GFS operational gives us a whole different look. Completely demolishes the -NAO after maybe 5 days which gives way to height rises in the east and then quickly tries to reform the -NAO but also with a concurrent ridge across much of the east. That to me is very confusing that should not happen. You dont have a ridge building with another ridge just to its north.

 

I will say this though it looks as though the second week of December 12th-16th is the new problem area for models and how they handle the block. It is also super unfortunate but probably for the best to not get blasted with intense cold, suppression city would have people jumping off the roofs with temps in the 20s and low in the single digits. The lack of the -EPO is really keeping this at bay from being and all out cold through much of the US. The ever present -PNA will still be around overall with some laxing points in the next two weeks. We can still have a nice pattern with a -NAO/-PNA. It is nice to see us not having a rager of a -NAO through the entire run feel that would have really made people unhappy. Lets build the snowpack some more in the northern plains, great lakes,  and southern Canada this week coming up 5th-9th and go from there. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS and EPS 6-10 day moving backwards a bit

[so_whats_happening]

3 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GEFS and EPS 6-10 day moving backwards a bit

Here are the attached 500mb heights. Tale of two different stories going forward. The -NAO should hold which is a big issue the GFS is showing hence its rather warm signal showing up as it depletes the block and allows the SE ridge to pop a bit. Again the weakness path should be stage right for the low across the US with a high pressure through much of eastern Canada up to Greenland. The primary should die rather quickly through OH/ lakes region and pop a low off the coast. The systems should be weak overall no big bomb systems with lack of western ridging. Majority of the cold to stay in the upper midwest with not much dislodging taking place to send cold throughout the country. Until we see a better -EPO or +PNA or that combo pop up this should be the case. The deep south and SE remains rather warm with a constant feed of systems through the country. As Mainejay stated the other day it is a battle ground along that line any push on either side should mess with where snow and rain should fall. We need to remember just because a -NAO forms does not instantly mean cold throughout the US. Shots of cold for sure but the main idea of a -NAO is for the storm track to be suppressed leading less chances of pushing the primary low NW and having more influence on the pattern.

I even added in the GEPS model from 00z. Can see the troughing underneath the block off shore so it is saying the main troughing is off shore and systems going into it will have some wiggle along the east coast but not super warm or super cold rather average to just slightly below. Until I see consistency outside the mean of the -NAO being depleted quickly there is very little for concern. We now get to see why -EPO is super important for cold across the US east of the rockies. +PNA helps with troughing along the east and can back the mean troughing to closer to the coast allowing better storm, bigger storm potential.

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by so_whats_happening