StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 When the -nao is this strong at hr 360 on the mean. 👀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: When the -nao is this strong at hr 360 on the mean. 👀 The east coast should really cash in with a look like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted December 1, 2022 Admin Share Posted December 1, 2022 I still think the biggest concern is that Greenland ridge pushing back into Hudson Bay. If it squashes the Hudson Bay vortex, the EPO goes positive, perhaps strongly. This doesn't totally cut off cold air, but it makes it harder for the PNA to go positive. The blocking ridge is so large that it becomes a wave spacing issue. You can see the wildly diverging model solutions because of the various blocking set ups the models are trying out. I know it's my location that makes me focus on it, but a Hudson Bay vortex is so important for a few reasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: I still think the biggest concern is that Greenland ridge pushing back into Hudson Bay. If it squashes the Hudson Bay vortex, the EPO goes positive, perhaps strongly. This doesn't totally cut off cold air, but it makes it harder for the PNA to go positive. The blocking ridge is so large that it becomes a wave spacing issue. You can see the wildly diverging model solutions because of the various blocking set ups the models are trying out. I know it's my location that makes me focus on it, but a Hudson Bay vortex is so important for a few reasons. There never going to be a weather pattern that doesn't have a way to ruin it. With that said this is definitely setting up to be one of the best opportunities for a great December the Mid-Atlantic/ NE have had im quite some time. Now we wait and see how it sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 On 11/28/2022 at 11:34 AM, Ohiobuckeye45 said: unfortunately, that's how its gone the majority of the last 10 years+. Fingers crossed its different this time....eventually it has to be Looks like it’s going to be same ol same ol… hope I’m wrong 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said: Looks like it’s going to be same ol same ol… hope I’m wrong A Midwestern Met that I follow agrees: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/a-short-reprieve When warm signals and cold signals battle it out, the warmth is almost always going to win out, especially in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: A Midwestern Met that I follow agrees: https://www.tswails.com/single-post/a-short-reprieve When warm signals and cold signals battle it out, the warmth is almost always going to win out, especially in December. That's a pretty broad statement that I wouldn't agree with. Cold often squashes/ crushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWOhioChaser Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Happy Meteorological Winter everyone! 😃 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: That's a pretty broad statement that I wouldn't agree with. Cold often squashes/ crushes. Not in December. There's too much leftover warmth in the atmosphere, so things have to align perfectly to get any sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 This thread is giving me bi polar disorder. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mulaman984 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Not in December. There's too much leftover warmth in the atmosphere, so things have to align perfectly to get any sustained cold. What? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Models align on NAO/AO but this is where the help is needed to get rid of all the flat suppressed waves currently being shown. Need to get through that first full week of Dec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Not in December. There's too much leftover warmth in the atmosphere, so things have to align perfectly to get any sustained cold. Every year is different, this year has the -AO, last year had the crazy +AO. It seems like that this year, the cold is more favored to win out against the heat, we have a strong NHEM snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 worth posting as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Every year is different, this year has the -AO, last year had the crazy +AO. It seems like that this year, the cold is more favored to win out against the heat, we have a strong NHEM snowpack. The MJO is working against the AO though and it seems to be winning the battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I am least familiar with EPO vs. the big 3 (AO/NAO/PNA) so here is the jist 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: I am least familiar with EPO vs. the big 3 (AO/NAO/PNA) so here is the jist The position of the ridge is what is important for the EPO, too far west and you get a -PNA setup. For the central U.S I like to see that ridge axis set up essentially where the graphic has it. For the East Coast however you want to see it a bit further east right on the West Coast really. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Models align on NAO/AO but this is where the help is needed to get rid of all the flat suppressed waves currently being shown. Need to get through that first full week of Dec I'm going to use this opportunity to just say that something suppressed for most can be right on target for others. We're the silent minority, but still. Carry on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The MJO is working against the AO though and it seems to be winning the battle The MJO has just gotten into Phase 8 and is expected to be in the 'null' for a while after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The MJO has just gotten into Phase 8 and is expected to be in the 'null' for a while after that. The forecast I saw has it going through 4, 5, and 6 during Dec week 2, counteracting the effects of the NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 48 minutes ago, 1816 said: I'm going to use this opportunity to just say that something suppressed for most can be right on target for others. We're the silent minority, but still. Carry on. haha fair enough, didn't realize you were way down yonder in VA 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 (edited) 28 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: The forecast I saw has it going through 4, 5, and 6 during Dec week 2, counteracting the effects of the NAO and AO. The only forecasts that features it is the BoM and the GMON that is slightly delayed. Edited December 1, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The only forecasts that features it is the BoM and the GMON that is slightly delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 31 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Whoops! I was looking at Phases 1,2 and 3! 😳 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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