Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

No worries it happens. Yes I do tend to agree with the notion of ENSO extremes happening I actually mentioned this in the ENSO thread a while back that MEI data may suggest El Nino events may not be quite as atmospherically intense as we move on but the oceanic component is rather intense as each super Nino episode has had higher temps than the previous one, could argue the idea 09-10 Nino didn't get as strong due to being in a solar min why it didn't post higher numbers than the previous super Nino but we can't exclusively say this because 97-98 happened in a solar min too🤷‍♂️. This could be due to the warming of oceans playing a role in making this happen and thus giving us potential warmer La Nina episodes over the time? In the last 20ish years we have not crossed the -1.6 trimonthly for ENSO we managed to do this 2-3 times in the previous 20ish years and then another stretch of not attaining this. Wonder if there is a pattern in this at all too? 

 

 

It sucks we're thrust into this huge pattern of oceanic and climatological uncertainty. It seems the 2000-2022(-?) is an era of extremes. We may be moving into meteorologically fascinating times, but it also seems we're moving into regionally devastating results.

Edited July 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It sucks we're thrust into this huge pattern of oceanic and climatological uncertainty. It seems the 2000-2022(-?) is an era of extremes. We may be moving into meteorologically fascinating times, but it also seems we're moving into regionally devastating results.

Very much so regionally it has been quite the situation over the past 7 months. Australian floods, India/ Pakistan heatwave of march and April, Intense heat in western Europe, TX ridging pattern for the last 2 months, northern Canada ridging pattern into the CAA similar to what has happened into Alaska in years past. I have this feeling that the warmer oceans are throwing off computer models, more atmospheric moisture available changes up how things play out internally and the models do tend to have a bias to go to climo as time moves on even as climo ever changes.

It is interesting to note that the PAC NW and western Canada experienced a similar major heatwave last year as western Europe did this year. Similar latitude similar placement of being alongside a cold current. Just pure observation is all as I don't want to detract too much from the purpose of the thread.

I am curious though how the tonga volcanic eruption will affect the global pattern. It should be starting to affect it currently at least in the southern hemisphere even though the major aerosal was water vapor being shot into the stratosphere and probably further. It was a VEI 6 eruption so it had the power to do some work on the system.

[Bradjl2009]

Long way to go, but this is good to see with a lot of concerning weather events happening all over the world. Arctic sea ice for 2022 as of 7/25 was at its highest point since 2009. 

[Grace]

On 7/25/2022 at 8:33 PM, ClicheVortex2014 said:

It looks like we'll have our third 3-peat La Nina since 1950... others were 1973-75, 2010-12, and now 2020-23.

It's interesting how it took at least 23 years (from when reliable records started) to get the first three-peat... then almost 40 years between the first three-peat and the second, then a little less than 10 years between the second and third. Might be an impact of climate change. Too early to tell for sure.

Edit: I wanna add, too, that we think/thought that the 2015-16 Super Nino was possibly attributed to climate change. This three-peat Nina doesn't necessarily negate this possibility; climate change could be making extreme ENSO events more likely.

Bright side for winter lovers is that each of the past 3peats were followed by a string of brutal winters. The infamous 1976-78 and the less-infamous-but-still-memorable 2013-15. 

For now... this winters Nina looks front-loaded like 2016-17. 

 

Or knowing strong ENSO events back to the 1870's courtesy of Eric Webb....it could just be natural variation. 😉 

Data for the 1877-78 El Nino suggests it was stronger than the 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16 El Nino's. We just don't know. But past extremes suggest pumping the breaks on seeing CC in every butterfly. Just promise you will not get all coocoo like PlanetMaster. (I kid) 😛

 

Also:

Studies indicate that the frequency, duration, and strength of ENSO vary from decade to decade (Enfield 1988; Trenberth and Hoar 1996: Rajagopalan and Cook 2000; Yuan et al. 2009; Hu et al. 2013; McGregor et al. 2013; Cai et al. 2014; Latif et al. 2015; Wittenberg 2015; Räsänen et al. 2016; Wang et al. 2017; Capotondi and Sardeshmukh 2017; Li et al. 2019). Recently, there has been debate over whether ENSO events are becoming more frequent and intense (Lee and McPhaden 2010; Newman et al. 2011; Stevenson, 2012; Cai et al. 2014). Some of them have also argued that the number of the central-Pacific (CP) ENSO have increased in the past decades (Larkin and Harrison 2005; Ashok et al. 2007; Newman et al. 2011; Johnson 2013; Yu and Kim 2013). In contrast, others suggest ENSO events in the distant past may be as strong as those observed in recent decades (Enfield 1988; Quinn and Neal 1995; Grove 1998; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018).

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml

Edited July 27, 2022 by Grace

[Grace]

On a good note. If this Arctic Sea Ice holds through next 6-8 weeks it "could" bring potential to an earlier winter start. 🤞 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

On a good note. If this Arctic Sea Ice holds through next 6-8 weeks it "could" bring potential to a earlier winter start. 🤞 

I have been watching to see if it holds for sure. It really is some thin ice out there but managing to hold out so far. Area has flatlined for now and extent should feel this too. Forecast after a brief warmup going into August shows extended cooler than normal conditions. If we manage this to about the 3rd week of August we stand the chance of finishing extent above 5 million sq km. The area to watch is the Atlantic front as the pacific side will likely remain cool through the time frame.

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Fascinating 

[Grace]

Well, it's looking -ENSO for sure but just howuch or little remains to be seen. Subsurface has definitely cooled more. 

[Grace]

CFS currently not looking bad at all.

DJF

EDIT: I'll add very 2017-18 looking.

 

JAN looks appealing!

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

46 minutes ago, Grace said:

CFS currently not looking bad at all.

DJF

 

JAN looks appealing!

 

May be a nice situation out your way. We need these waters off the East coast to cool down a bit. This will surely help in creating a +NAO pattern as the overall mode this winter if this doesn't relax a bit. +NAO are not always bad but more often than not they depict scenarios in temps similar to the CFS for January. Not terrible but worrisome to get much of any snow along the east coast outside of inland/ mountain areas. Would like to see how the -ENSO evolves looks like the strongest forcing will be rather far west 3.4/4 region will probably rule the La Nina this year. This is a good signal for eastern U.S. to be alot more moist with a potentially active STJ. Worried that we could go -PNA +NAO pattern though which is not terrible but meh in many situations again may be rather decent out your way with a pattern like that.

[Grace]

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Haven't found the cool to look at images but the farmers Almanac says snow and cold in the East. Lines up with front loaded winter:

“A cold December and a very cold January might make readers in the Northeast shake and shiver,” the Farmers’ Almanac wrote. “But February will bring milder temperatures that should make winter seem more bearable.”

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 minute ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Haven't found the cool to look at images but the farmers Almanac says snow and cold in the East. Lines up with front loaded winter:

“A cold December and a very cold January might make readers in the Northeast shake and shiver,” the Farmers’ Almanac wrote. “But February will bring milder temperatures that should make winter seem more bearable.”

Got it:

 

[Grace]

Well this is funny, JAMSTEC has a weak Modoki El Nino

 

Do I believe it? Lol...no! 

[Bradjl2009]

5 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Got it:

 

Would be fitting as this will be 20 years since the wonderful winter of 2002-2003, the only winner I can remember well that I rank above it is 2009-2010.

In the sea ice dept, there has been a noticeable slowdown in loss of ice over the last few days. Only one year since 2010 has had a higher extent of sea ice than this year. Based off what has happened in other years around this time of the year, there's a chance the worst of the loss in sea ice is done.

[Grace]

The IRI model updated & has a peak at its first DJF probability forecast:

[Grace]

As we approach Sept it's nice to see patterns like this start emerging. However, just need something similar in DEC. 😆 

[StormfanaticInd]

6 hours ago, Grace said:

As we approach Sept it's nice to see patterns like this start emerging. However, just need something similar in DEC. 😆 

Interesting. "Odds" favor a cold December but🙄

[so_whats_happening]

12 hours ago, Grace said:

As we approach Sept it's nice to see patterns like this start emerging. However, just need something similar in DEC. 😆 

Such a shame to always see these patterns come about in the off season. One day it will happen lol

[Grace]

Pretty good! First summer in a while we haven't seen the waters near NE Asia open up. Not that it means anything but it's just an observation.

Edited August 17, 2022 by Grace

[MaineJay]

2000-2001 had a similar solar and a third year la Nina.

Edit, I tweaked the range and interval a little to gather a bit more detail.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

On 8/17/2022 at 9:52 AM, Grace said:

Pretty good! First summer in a while we haven't seen the waters near NE Asia open up. Not that it means anything but it's just an observation.

I wonder when "median" gets updated....its been 12 years.

[Bradjl2009]

As of this date, the only year with a larger extended sea ice in the Arctic since 2007 is 2009 (and we all remember how that winter was, though this summer has been nothing like that one lol). Certainly great news for the Arctic which has had a rough last 10 years at least. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

CPC outlook

This looks dreamy for the OV