Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, 1816 said: That's not really showing up anywhere. The data being crunched by the models is right there for all to see. Side note: Please charge your phone, I see the 8% 😛 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) Seeing some nice early changes on the GFS. But looks to be running slow on Pivotal, and has come to a halt on Tidbits. I think this is the first run of the "upgrade" GFS? Edited November 30, 2022 by Pghsnow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, 1816 said: That's not really showing up anywhere. The data being crunched by the models is right there for all to see. Side note: OUCH...calling me out! I'll gladly eat all of those words if any of this comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Seeing some nice early changes on the GFS. But looks to be running slow on Pivotal, and has come to a halt on Tidbits. I think this is the first run of the "upgrade" GFS? It may be, also slow on College of DuPage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 GFS at 156 has come around to the idea the CMC had yesterday at 12z, something to watch finally maybe in the regional threads? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: Seeing some nice early changes on the GFS. But looks to be running slow on Pivotal, and has come to a halt on Tidbits. I think this is the first run of the "upgrade" GFS? Yes the upgrade was today. I was told the biggest difference would be on precip amounts. The newer model has a greater ability to determine snowfall amounts as well as what I've heard. Just higher resolution Edited November 30, 2022 by Grace 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) its updated on NCEP website, shows a bruiser 12/11-12/13, Miller B situation Edited November 30, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 30, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: its updated on NCEP website, shows a bruiser 12/11-12/13, Miller B situation 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 30, 2022 With such a strong temp gradient forecast across the country, there's tons of room to bust either way, especially as the expected block actually sets up. Blocky generally means amplified, so things could go either way. Seems like cold will be easier to tap out west, but it's right there for the taking for any ambitious shortwaves. So are there some warm risks? I'd say absolutely especially the further east one goes, but there's at least equal to or perhaps even slightly greater cold risks in reality. If even from a statistical standpoint. About December temps, so much has to do with snow cover. I'd guess that December has perhaps the greatest variability with regards to snow cover, this leading to additional warm potentially in areas with no snow, and vice versa for places that can establish a snow pack. Just think how much colder a clear night with even a little snow is early in the season. As others have noted, it would be nice to have a trackable threat, but they will come. Patience and managing expectations might be the hardest part of winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, Grace said: Yes the upgrade was today. I was told the biggest difference would be on precip amounts. The newer model has a greater ability to determine snowfall amounts as well as what I've heard. Just higher resolution Are they "building in" snowfall into the model. I could be wrong, but I thought much of the snowfall forecasts were inferred from temp and qpf data by the various sites that offer model graphics. For example, I understand that the icon (despite it's deficiencies) has SLR "baked" into it's model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Are they "building in" snowfall into the model. I could be wrong, but I thought much of the snowfall forecasts were inferred from temp and qpf data by the various sites that offer model graphics. For example, I understand that the icon (despite it's deficiencies) has SLR "baked" into it's model. From a MET Also says some type of upgrade on EPS as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 16 hours ago, SOMOSnow said: 🔻👇 Very cold and very active sounds like wishcasting to me. Usually if it gets cold then the storm track is suppressed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Am I the only one wondering right now if the magnitude of this -nao is related to the eruption? I read all the stuff about what went on in the s hemisphere and the speculation about possible effects for the n hemisphere. But when you see something modeled that is so extreme, doesn't it start ringing bells for you? Maybe there's going to be some more surprising developments in store. Hopefully good ones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 5 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Well, the link to WxDisco is now dead. But can Y'all try to mostly on topic for this winter? December Cold has the Highest Potential since the 1980s. The other site is still around, it's just that the link is now community.wxdisco.com. Anyway though back to December, I just hope here in Pittsburgh at least this doesn't end up like a scenario such as 1989 or 2010 where snowfall was only at or slightly above normal despite the constant cold, because the push was just too strong for big storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 30, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 30, 2022 That’s a mighty powerful storm right there.. 957mb. Just a bit outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Looking forward to what transpires from this blocky pattern being advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I counted at least 5 suppressed waves on the 18z GFS, as some have mentioned there's a fine line between "be careful what you wish for". That being said that run was 1 of the best looking overall so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 6-10 gefs update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6-10 gefs update Looks really smoothed out. Models still 🤷♂️🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted December 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted December 1, 2022 (edited) I'd love that winter storm on the 12z Canadian. About a half an inch of sleet with 3 inches of snow on top. I usually don't like sleet on it's own (bad memories from December 2013) but with snow it can be a lot of fun. Edited December 1, 2022 by Ingyball 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, Ingyball said: I'd love that winter storm on the 12z Canadian. About a half an inch of sleet with 3 inches of snow on top. I usually don't like sleet on it's own (bad memories from December 2013) but with snow it can be a lot of fun. December 2013 was a bit scary, I literally had to run away from an Ice Storm to Missouri! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 (edited) This is a potential storm in the making next week pending how that shortwave in the southwest eject. Edited December 1, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Everything is looking very flat, hopefully there's more of a western ridge look as time goes on. Even if not robust, anything is better than a pancake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Models look really weird with the handling of upcoming systems and different waves. This isn’t that surprising as we usually do see them struggle when there’s a pattern change. I think in these pattern change situations the euro often does best with handling storms so I’d be more inclined to watch it than the run to run craziness of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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