Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Normally, this is from the GFS, but have Y'all ever seen the Super Omega -NAO block from the Euro!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 You guys ever build something up so much that even if it turned out really really good, it was just a little disappointing? This is starting to feel a bit like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: You guys ever build something up so much that even if it turned out really really good, it was just a little disappointing? This is starting to feel a bit like that. These conversations usually fade once something starts popping up for the regional threads to dive in to. But until then this notion of a phantom un heard of cold December weather 🤣 is front and center as the only thing to obsess over from run to run (which is 100% what I'm admittedly doing). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 13 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: These conversations usually fade once something starts popping up for the regional threads to dive in to. But until then this notion of a phantom un heard of cold December weather 🤣 is front and center as the only thing to obsess over from run to run (which is 100% what I'm admittedly doing). These graphics we are drooling over are just too good. The last time anything like this was on the table was 09 and the modeling and knowledge has come light years further in the intervening 13 years. But. It never takes much to all go poof. A little off on some timing here and there and you got nothing. Timing was dead on all winter long in 09. Looking forward to seeing what we can get this year. That's the thrill right there. We are looking at a wrapped gift at this point. All we know right now is its a big ass heavy box, so hopefully it's something nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere is the highest in 56 years! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Normally, this is from the GFS, but have Y'all ever seen the Super Omega -NAO block from the Euro!? The biggest takeaway that needs to be brought up is just how intense that -NAO block gets. Too much can negatively affect outcomes for allowing snow potential and would push some severe cold pretty far west. Models also tend to remove the blocking pattern rather quickly compared to reality. I think we need to see how this week evolves to get a better picture as we move into mid month. The transition still looks around the 7th. The lack of -EPO/+PNA is concerning still even as we move closer in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted November 30, 2022 Social Media Crew Share Posted November 30, 2022 Did someone mention eye candy? 👀 It’s not there yet.. but I would like to see more of this on the long run modeling, even if to make my heart temporarily happy 😃 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 30, 2022 4 hours ago, Penn State said: Did someone mention eye candy? 👀 It’s not there yet.. but I would like to see more of this on the long run modeling, even if to make my heart temporarily happy 😃 I say we lock in that GFS run in general. I love that cutoff low in Colorado that give Kansas and Nebraska plenty of rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 30, 2022 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Snow extent in the Northern Hemisphere is the highest in 56 years! Source? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: I say we lock in that GFS run in general. I love that cutoff low in Colorado that give Kansas and Nebraska plenty of rain and snow. I'll take the 967mb at the end for $1000 Alex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 30, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Normally, this is from the GFS, but have Y'all ever seen the Super Omega -NAO block from the Euro!? Not disagreeing about the magnitude of the block, but from a purely mathematical index perspective, the weak troffing near Iceland and the Azores would probably "contaminate" the EOF and lead to a less impressive looking NAO graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) 52 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Source? https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/ NOAA/Rutgers has it. It's now within the 56-year max, but it's still way above normal. Edited November 30, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) Final CFS monthly forecast for DEC The final 9 from NOV 22 on. Steadily colder each run. Today's is the coldest. That's encouraging. I really see nothing that really concerns me when looking at the east-based La Nina, MJO, & the understanding of a large -NAO loading period. LR model runs eradic, both OP & ensembles has been the only concern but that is not unusual during winter MJO. With that said, up & down looks to be the case at first but as we move into the 2nd week of DEC cold moderates less & less from west to east. Winter storm chance wise, first best chances with -NAO loading pattern being ripe...putting breaks on pattern....and leading to winter storm opportunities first for OV then afterward east coast is between 10-15th. No one is predicting brutality with the cold throughout. But it's the coldest looking DEC since 2017 & only the 2nd since 2013. So relax & enjoy. Obviously it's weather & no one knows exactly how everything will shake out on storms etc. Also no one knows for sure how it a will all unfold, but probabilities for a colder DEC & potentially some winter storm opportunities in DEC is much higher than it has been in a long time. Edited November 30, 2022 by Grace 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) Anyone remember the December 23-26, 2010 Winter Storm? Midwest storm occluded & formed a east coast low. Brought heavy snow Midwest, light snows in OV & heavy snow in NE. One of the GFS runs kind of hints at something like that & the Ensemble mean 500mb pattern favors it. Not saying it's happening, it's pastcday 10 lol. I'm just sharing the similarities. Eastern_US_WinterStorm_December_2010 (2).pdf If you walk the 500mb through day by day of the 2010 Winter storm its almost exactly like above. Edited November 30, 2022 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 It's funny...I've been following this forum as well as WXDisco. If I didn't know any better, I'd think the two boards were following two completely different winters. Over there, there is no mention of any of this. It's all warmth, doom, and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 34 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It's funny...I've been following this forum as well as WXDisco. If I didn't know any better, I'd think the two boards were following two completely different winters. Over there, there is no mention of any of this. It's all warmth, doom, and gloom. When did they get it up & running again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 35 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It's funny...I've been following this forum as well as WXDisco. If I didn't know any better, I'd think the two boards were following two completely different winters. Over there, there is no mention of any of this. It's all warmth, doom, and gloom. I wonder why? 🤔 Anthony Masiello, Eric Webb, Paul Roundy would disagree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 I remember last year there were claims winter was over on that site and soon after we had 2-3 snow storms in the east. They do enjoy pushing no winter and no cold over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, Grace said: When did they get it up & running again? It's been up and running for months...but PlanetMaster is in the midst of converting it into something else (Global Climate Center or something like that) 7 minutes ago, Grace said: I wonder why? 🤔 Anthony Masiello, Eric Webb, Paul Roundy would disagree. My theory is it doesn't fit PlanetMaster's climate change armageddon narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It's been up and running for months...but PlanetMaster is in the midst of converting it into something else (Global Climate Center or something like that) My theory is it doesn't fit PlanetMaster's climate change armageddon narrative. Well, the link to WxDisco is now dead. But can Y'all try to mostly on topic for this winter? December Cold has the Highest Potential since the 1980s. Edited November 30, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 The blocking signal is very strong. Only a matter of time before a big storm pops up😁☃️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 13 hours ago, 1816 said: These graphics we are drooling over are just too good. The last time anything like this was on the table was 09 and the modeling and knowledge has come light years further in the intervening 13 years. But. It never takes much to all go poof. A little off on some timing here and there and you got nothing. Timing was dead on all winter long in 09. Looking forward to seeing what we can get this year. That's the thrill right there. We are looking at a wrapped gift at this point. All we know right now is its a big ass heavy box, so hopefully it's something nice. Has happened before can happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 51 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It's funny...I've been following this forum as well as WXDisco. If I didn't know any better, I'd think the two boards were following two completely different winters. Over there, there is no mention of any of this. It's all warmth, doom, and gloom. That's not really showing up anywhere. The data being crunched by the models is right there for all to see. Side note: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: The blocking signal is very strong. Only a matter of time before a big storm pops up😁☃️ It's a ticking time bomb, and when it blows, here comes the snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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