Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12z GEPS 6-10

 

[StormfanaticInd]

12 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GEFS 6-10 day still keeps it bottled up, this will be my trigger to start paying attention, ignoring the 11-15 day noise until then

Yeah, starting to see some huge red flags about December. The cold will be there but may never make it east in December 

[mafa]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

12z GEPS 6-10

 

I like this look. Want to be near the boundary where the storm systems track. 

[Grace]

 

[Hassaywx1223]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

In general public terms?

[Cdfarabaugh]

I've seen this movie before of the 10 say out pattern change.  Let's just say I'm not putting my grill away 😉

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Yeah, starting to see some huge red flags about December. The cold will be there but may never make it east in December 

Red flags for no cold?

That look is absolutely screaming a huge cold wave in the Central and Southern United States in Mid to Late December, I've started to consider that since Early November!

[Grace]

3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Yeah, starting to see some huge red flags about December. The cold will be there but may never make it east in December 

 

 

[Grace]

11 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Red flags for no cold?

That look is absolutely screaming a huge cold wave in the Central and Southern United States in Mid to Late December, I've started to consider that since Early November!

 

I don't see any red flags. Someone saw a model run & lost their mind. The east coast will take until mid-month. Plains, MW, OV a week before. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

 

I don't see any red flags. Someone saw a model run & lost their mind. The east coast will take until mid-month. Plains, MW, OV a week before. 

And then, Round #2 for Mid to Late December!

[Ingyball]

9 hours ago, Grace said:

GEFS looks like it wants to rinse & repeat. As I shared a few days ago this rinse & repeat is expected for most of DEC.

I'm okay with this, November was a wet month here. A little more cold air and we would have been looking at one of our snowiest months we've seen lol. Hope we keep getting some favorable storm tracks in December and January.

[Iceresistance]

I've been hearing December 1990 Analogs pop up on the other forum, it was brutally cold for Oklahoma with Below Zero Lows and near zero highs.

[Ingyball]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I've been hearing December 1990 Analogs pop up on the other forum, it was brutally cold for Oklahoma with Below Zero Lows and near zero highs.

Well we don't need it to be that cold lol

 

Edit: Looks like the cold came around December 20th in 1990 Wichita did get below 0 but OKC and Tulsa stayed in the single digits. Looks like northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas got about 3-5" of snow over a span of a few days during the cold outbreak as well. Overall it wasn't as extreme as December 1989, but it lasted longer due to a 2nd shot of cold air that came around New Years and a brief warm up in between. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ingyball

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

Well we don't need it to be that cold lol

 

Edit: Looks like the cold came around December 20th in 1990 Wichita did get below 0 but OKC and Tulsa stayed in the single digits. Looks like northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas got about 3-5" of snow over a span of a few days during the cold outbreak as well. Overall it wasn't as extreme as December 1989, but it lasted longer due to a 2nd shot of cold air that came around New Years and a brief warm up in between. 

Northern Oklahoma did get Below Zero, I saw that from the December 1990 Climate Report
https://climate.ok.gov/summaries/monthly/1990/mcs_december_1990.pdf

I do not believe that we will have a December 1990 repeat, however, warmer temperatures usually preludes nasty cold waves. Heat Miser (Wxman57) remembers that in the same month in 1983 and 1989.

[Grace]

 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Grace said:

 

Welp, here we go. Will this -NAO reach the potential for becoming #12 for December NAO analongs for January and/or February?

[SOMOSnow]

🔻👇 I know some people dislike Joe, but I found the tweet interesting. Please disregard if so inclined...

 

Edited November 29, 2022 by SOMOSnow

[SOMOSnow]

🔻👇

 

[Penn State]

The projected -NAO and Greenland blocking is encouraging.. however.. the persistence on the -PNA is quite discouraging. The consistent -PNA.. I believe.. is a characteristic of La Niña. So.. from my perspective, we need to observe movement (warming) in SSTs. If that happens.. there’s a lot to like about the middle of December. To me, the data suggests that there’s an increased likelihood that at some point the pattern will be favorable for a major winter storm in the eastern U.S. For that to happen.. I just think we need the ridging (+PNA) to accompany the blocking. Here’s the latest NOAA ENSO forecast.. paired with those SSTs.

Also.. side question.. I was doing some research, and it seems like ridging in the Kara Sea can be a soft indicator of trouble. I also saw that there was to be a 1070 HP in Asia. Anyone have any info on this Kara Sea business? I may be completely off my rocker on this one.. lol

[Ohiobuckeye45]

13 minutes ago, Penn State said:

The projected -NAO and Greenland blocking is encouraging.. however.. the persistence on the -PNA is quite discouraging. The consistent -PNA.. I believe.. is a characteristic of La Niña. So.. from my perspective, we need to observe movement (warming) in SSTs. If that happens.. there’s a lot to like about the middle of December. To me, the data suggests that there’s an increased likelihood that at some point the pattern will be favorable for a major winter storm in the eastern U.S. For that to happen.. I just think we need the ridging (+PNA) to accompany the blocking. Here’s the latest NOAA ENSO forecast.. paired with those SSTs.

Also.. side question.. I was doing some research, and it seems like ridging in the Kara Sea can be a soft indicator of trouble. I also saw that there was to be a 1070 HP in Asia. Anyone have any info on this Kara Sea business? I may be completely off my rocker on this one.. lol

To add to your post. Been tough getting a +PNA to stick lately 

Edited November 29, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ingyball]

I'm selfishly all for -PNA to go with the -NAO. Should get some shortwaves to moves into the Plains with cold in place. Won't get big storms with that setup but can get the nickel and dimed snows that add up. 

[Penn State]

10 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

I'm selfishly all for -PNA to go with the -NAO. Should get some shortwaves to moves into the Plains with cold in place. Won't get big storms with that setup but can get the nickel and dimed snows that add up. 

That’s fair though.. For you guys out in the upper Midwest.. it’s a gravy train. 

[Ingyball]

Looks like we're in the midst of a sudden stratospheric warming event. When you combine that with a blocking signal that's a big time cold signal for about 2-4 weeks from now. If we shoot above the 90 percentile I'll become highly concerned of big time cold.

NWS Bismarck has a wonderland for teleconnection lovers. https://www.weather.gov/bis/climate_sa

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

the problem is we've had several La Nina winters the last decade where the predominant cold stays bottled up in the PAC NW and upper MW, and only moderated cool shots make there way east leaving a "thread the needle scenario" needed for snow. Too early to call either way, but I'm pretty cautious here for now 

December's often carry that "waiting on the dam to break" mentality, but sometimes it never does, or at least it doesnt stay broken (hence the moderated cold shots)

Yea we have had a -PDO situation for quite some time which tips the scale westward for the axis of troughing. This also seems to be occurring during a time where the Stratospheric polar vortex is getting a wave 1 displacement. Wave 2 is in development and may happen toward the end of December. Wave 1 disturbance tends to dump cold into the west and with us still early season this is fairly typical to see west coast troughing early in the season and eventually giving way to ridge in time. 

Now this doesn't mean this is the end of any wintry precip. As mentioned several times this looks like a flow across the center portions of the country with a positive tilted trough overall. As Ingy has mentioned that is 100% an overrunning situation with a severe weather spot across dixie alley. Most of the warmth should stay to the deep south while we have this ridging across the SE. Everything still in the process of -NAO block taking over shifting the pattern westward and allowing a weakness much of the area east of the Mississippi with a minor ridge out along the SW coast as a an upper level cut off low develops west of Cali. 

As has been mentioned several times is the lack of +PNA around even with a present -EPO pattern. This will dislodge the cold but allow it slide down into the mountains and front range and moderating east. Overrunning events can still bring quite the snow across the country just not huge storms. Looking at the time between the 12th-16th to probably feature a storm -NAO should relax as we move toward the end of the month. Maybe even introducing a better -EPO/+PNA pattern toward mid to late month. Unfortunately these processes take time to setup and the lead up of weather is usually as we are experiencing. 

6 hours ago, Hassaywx1223 said:

In general public terms?

I think justin timberlake said it before "what goes around comes back around" lol

I had to sorry heard it on the radio into work today. But the idea is that it looks as though we setup up the -NAO have it for a bit and then relax/recharge to bring back around again. 

We need to remember though -NAO just help with storm track along the east coast and slow the pattern down a bit. They do not feed us cold the combo of a +PNA/-NAO is the perfect combo for cold and snow in the east but you can still get a snowy pattern with a -NAO/-PNA. It just tends to be a little warm at the onset of precip and we cool as a front pushes through. I tend to like these systems more because they offer up a better chance of snow than threading the needle with bigger east coast snowstorms.

 

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

The projected -NAO and Greenland blocking is encouraging.. however.. the persistence on the -PNA is quite discouraging. The consistent -PNA.. I believe.. is a characteristic of La Niña. So.. from my perspective, we need to observe movement (warming) in SSTs. If that happens.. there’s a lot to like about the middle of December. To me, the data suggests that there’s an increased likelihood that at some point the pattern will be favorable for a major winter storm in the eastern U.S. For that to happen.. I just think we need the ridging (+PNA) to accompany the blocking. Here’s the latest NOAA ENSO forecast.. paired with those SSTs.

Also.. side question.. I was doing some research, and it seems like ridging in the Kara Sea can be a soft indicator of trouble. I also saw that there was to be a 1070 HP in Asia. Anyone have any info on this Kara Sea business? I may be completely off my rocker on this one.. lol

Yea give it time for the ridging that is present in the SE to retrograde west and set up a small ridging pattern to help with storm/ cold potnetial. It doesn't look to stay for long but can help when needed. -NAO should be around for about 2 weeks ish relax and the pattern should reload again as we near the end of the month. Honestly any wintry precip in this 2 week period for us will feel nice we typically don't see more than 4" in December with most of our snow coming in the latter half of January through early March.

[Grace]

RRWT for DEC 13-17

 

500mb

 

2m Temps

 

Just for fun...

JAN 7-11, 2m Temps

 

JAN 12-16, 2m Temps