Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 MJO almost in Phase 8 already. The Australian model updates a pretty strong MJO wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) I wonder why the operational models are not as cold as the means🤔 Seems weird Edited November 28, 2022 by StormfanaticInd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: 6 hours ago, Bradjl2009 said: There is some very cold air building to the north. Just a matter of waiting for when it will spill south enough to impact the more populated parts of the US. 7 hours ago, Grace said: That block! 😆 I mean, I'm not sure I've seen a block like that since 2010-11. The block impressively is all the way up at 10mb in the stratosphere. Shared this to the other weather forum, holy moly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Grace said: MJO almost in Phase 8 already. The Australian model updates a pretty strong MJO wave. Where did you find the one for the Australian model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 28, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: I wonder why the operational models are not as cold as the means🤔 Seems weird It that big block retrogrades too far west, the Hudson Bay vortex (associated with a -EPO) gets pushed west also. I believe this leaves the door open for some Pacific air, and for the cold to dump further west, and bleed east. I feel like a ridge centered more towards Iceland would be more effective for cold east of the Mississippi. Selfishly, I'm taking advantage of the benign weather we've been experiencing up here to finish outdoor jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: It that big block retrogrades too far west, the Hudson Bay vortex (associated with a -EPO) gets pushed west also. I believe this leaves the door open for some Pacific air, and for the cold to dump further west, and bleed east. I feel like a ridge centered more towards Iceland would be more effective for cold east of the Mississippi. Selfishly, I'm taking advantage of the benign weather we've been experiencing up here to finish outdoor jobs. If that might be the case, then I may get dumped on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Where did you find the one for the Australian model? The 2 I underlined are both Australian model products. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Edited November 28, 2022 by Grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) GEFS looks like it wants to rinse & repeat. As I shared a few days ago this rinse & repeat is expected for most of DEC. Edited November 28, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 It appears that the MJO might be slowing down in Phase 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It appears that the MJO might be slowing down in Phase 7. So what are the ramifications of that, given all of the other factors being discussed currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 hours ago, MaineJay said: It that big block retrogrades too far west, the Hudson Bay vortex (associated with a -EPO) gets pushed west also. I believe this leaves the door open for some Pacific air, and for the cold to dump further west, and bleed east. I feel like a ridge centered more towards Iceland would be more effective for cold east of the Mississippi. Selfishly, I'm taking advantage of the benign weather we've been experiencing up here to finish outdoor jobs. This would explain why things are still being bottled up in the upper MW and PAC NW Days 6-10 on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: So what are the ramifications of that, given all of the other factors being discussed currently? It could build the Arctic air even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) the problem is we've had several La Nina winters the last decade where the predominant cold stays bottled up in the PAC NW and upper MW, and only moderated cool shots make there way east leaving a "thread the needle scenario" needed for snow. Too early to call either way, but I'm pretty cautious here for now December's often carry that "waiting on the dam to break" mentality, but sometimes it never does, or at least it doesnt stay broken (hence the moderated cold shots) Edited November 28, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the problem is we've had several La Nina winters the last decade where the predominant cold stays bottled up in the PAC NW and upper MW, and only moderated cool shots make there way east leaving a "thread the needle scenario" needed for snow. Too early to call either way, but I'm pretty cautious here for now December's often carry that "waiting on the dam to break" mentality, but sometimes it never does, or at least it doesnt stay broken (hence the moderated cold shots) Only to unleash the floodgates in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Only to unleash the floodgates in February! unfortunately, that's how its gone the majority of the last 10 years+. Fingers crossed its different this time....eventually it has to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: Only to unleash the floodgates in February! Not always though. I remember the winters of 2016-17 and 2019-20 being full of comments of "just wait, it'll be here in 10 days" only for it to never come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: the problem is we've had several La Nina winters the last decade where the predominant cold stays bottled up in the PAC NW and upper MW, and only moderated cool shots make there way east leaving a "thread the needle scenario" needed for snow. Too early to call either way, but I'm pretty cautious here for now December's often carry that "waiting on the dam to break" mentality, but sometimes it never does, or at least it doesnt stay broken (hence the moderated cold shots) If you look at every La Nina DEC the last decade only 2017 had much blocking & ended up below normal. Certainly, I don't think we have as much out west as that DEC but a lot more in the AO/NAO regions. There's a lot more going for this DEC MJO wise as well. Plus east based La Nina normally produce -NAO & less ridging. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 haha just minor differences between the LR 00z and 12z GFS 😄 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: haha just minor differences between the LR 00z and 12z GFS 😄 Looks great but I have zero trust in any model right now. The run to run variability is driving me ape. Edited November 28, 2022 by Grace 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Bradjl2009 said: Not always though. I remember the winters of 2016-17 and 2019-20 being full of comments of "just wait, it'll be here in 10 days" only for it to never come. It has in the past 2 winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) I’ve just come the conclusion that Christmas to new years flips it to winter and we don’t have full true spring til almost Mother’s Day with warmth mixed in with cold through most of April everything is delayed and remains delayed every year with climate change. Spring and fall don’t happen as long as they used to spring is super short falls leans into December now Edited November 28, 2022 by Hassaywx1223 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: I’ve just come the conclusion that Christmas to new years flips it to winter and we don’t have full true spring til almost Mother’s Day with warmth mixed in with cold through most of April everything is delayed and remains delayed every year with climate change. Spring and fall don’t happen as long as they used to spring is super short falls leans into December now This is definitely the case...I propose the following new season cadence, with a 5th season added in: Summer - July 1 - October 15 Fall - October 15 - December 31 Winter - Jan 1 - Mar 1 Sprinter - March 1 - May 1 Spring - May 1 - July 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: This is definitely the case...I propose the following new season cadence, with a 5th season added in: Summer - July 1 - October 15 Fall - October 15 - December 31 Winter - Jan 1 - Mar 1 Sprinter - March 1 - May 1 Spring - May 1 - July 1 For me, some years is a instant Summer to Winter and vice versa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 GEFS 6-10 day still keeps it bottled up, this will be my trigger to start paying attention, ignoring the 11-15 day noise until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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