StormfanaticInd Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Ingyball said: I think models are too shallow with the system next week based on the teleconnection forecast. The PNA will start trending negative the next couple of days along with the AO while the NAO trends positive. That suggests there should be enough blocking to slow the pattern down and force the trough to dig. SPC already has a rare day 5 30% and I think they're hitting it right on the head right now. Would not be surprised to see a winter storm in either Nebraska or Kansas, which would shift the following storm track south. We are on the same page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Goodness gracious! This is worth sharing regardless if it verifies or not. This block is massive! 12z CMC 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 12z GEFS 👀 The block has some staying power. Over time it will be more entrenced over Greenland. These are the kind of blocks that just only allow short warmups out in front of systems. Really keeps cold air from modifying over time. Oh yea...and then there's this: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: Holy -NAO! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 CFS intensifying blocking for DEC as we get close to end of month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 I don't remember the last time I saw a temperature gradient like this. Wow! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 For those keeping score on CFS monthly predictions. It certainly was too steamy east. Even with some warmth out ahead on Tuesday system it will not be enough to make up the difference. Overall it's not all that terrible; however, in the U.S. if you live east of Rockies its a big miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 26, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 26, 2022 I like to see that this is now within 240 hrs. Still have things to work out of course but it looks as though this will most definitely weaken the SPV. Im not sure a split will come about just yet but maybe toward the end of the month especially if we get the ridging toward mid December over northern Europe. Everything so far seems to be on track for after the first week of December for things to flip a switch. -NAO develops, better look of a -EPO, Urals ridging leading to SPV disturbances. I wanna say we need to watch for the jet extension out in the Pacific. This usually buckles over time creating a ridge and undercutting trough along the west coast, aka split flow pattern. This may take a bit to fully be realized versus the -NAO which has been in the works for some time. This may not buckle until close to mid month but we can still manage wintry weather across the country without the full on -EPO and the almost never present +PNA, the one true thing we have been missing most of the late fall so far. Im looking around the second week of December for some fun along the east coast as the ridging suppresses probably not a big storm rather overrunning events as the -PNA is still present. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 12z EPS La Nina MJO Phase 8 for DEC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 Based on GEFS but the EPS is similar too so there seems to be a signal for a big OHV storm around Dec 4-7 that pulls down some wintry chill for the second week of the month. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 26, 2022 Share Posted November 26, 2022 CFS 500mb mean for DEC 11-21 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Based on GEFS but the EPS is similar too so there seems to be a signal for a big OHV storm around Dec 4-7 that pulls down some wintry chill for the second week of the month. I'll take it, but the ohv is probably not as excited about thunderstorms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Can someone please give a brief idea of what all you weather gurus are talking about? Sorry, I am a moron of all this technical jargon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 50 minutes ago, beaver56 said: Can someone please give a brief idea of what all you weather gurus are talking about? Sorry, I am a moron of all this technical jargon. December cold potential is the main topic right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 I think after the first week of December we will see the cold move into the east. If we can get the cold to come in before one of the systems that are showing up moves in then maybe we can start the cold with snow on the ground in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 31 minutes ago, SNOWBOB11 said: I think after the first week of December we will see the cold move into the east. If we can get the cold to come in before one of the systems that are showing up moves in then maybe we can start the cold with snow on the ground in some areas. The newest running of the GFS sure seems to have agreed with your thoughts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 This could really get crazy if these solutions verify 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 32 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This could really get crazy if these solutions verify That block! 😆 I mean, I'm not sure I've seen a block like that since 2010-11. The block impressively is all the way up at 10mb in the stratosphere. Edited November 28, 2022 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Grace said: That block! 😆 I mean, I'm not sure I've seen a block like that since 2010-11. The block impressively is a the way up at 10mb in the stratosphere. WOW!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Can't wait to see this start hitting operational models consistently. After our brief November winter tease the subsequent (what will be) 3 weeks have been meh 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Can't wait to see this start hitting operational models consistently. After our brief November winter tease the subsequent (what will be) 3 weeks have been meh I remember last weekend, Greg Postel on the Weather Channel saying it could be up until mid December before things got interesting again in the east. It hopefully won't take that long, but it definitely looks like it will take until at least December 6th or 7th. Edited November 28, 2022 by Bradjl2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 There is some very cold air building to the north. Just a matter of waiting for when it will spill south enough to impact the more populated parts of the US. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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