1816 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 49 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: This December has potential if things continue to line up Pick a bandwagon brother you giving me whiplash 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 23, 2022 26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Oh jeez! I and the PNW may get HAMMERED! Welp, here we go The PNW over the next week or so is about to get some really nice snow. Classic down the coast low pressure with cold air pushing in from the north and eastern areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, 1816 said: Pick a bandwagon brother you giving me whiplash Lol!! This pattern is so tricky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 NOV 20-27, 2010 12z EPS forecast DEC 2-7 Pretty similar. MJO not the same but very similar 500mb. So how might a monthly mean -PNA, -EPO, -NAO pattern progress. Now this is just one year, & there are a few other years with better MJO alignment. Anyway, here was the weekly progression of DEC, 2010. My point is it can still be good for the east & I believe will be as MJO progresses. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Grace said: NOV 20-27, 2010 12z EPS forecast DEC 2-7 Pretty similar. MJO not the same but very similar 500mb. So how might a monthly mean -PNA, -EPO, -NAO pattern progress. Now this is just one year, & there are a few other years with better MJO alignment. Anyway, here was the weekly progression of DEC, 2010. My point is it can still be good for the east & I believe will be as MJO progresses. 18z GFS really highlighted the idea of a Greenland block really setting up around the first of the month. 12z caught onto it but didn't have quite the presentation 18z did. We then seem to go full bore Greenland block toward the end of the first week of December creating the ridge bridge via 12z not so much 18z but the idea is still there. This has the potential if it does form to last until at least early January before we potentially do a thaw situation. I would like to to see the EPO trend more negative with time but baby steps will get us there. Euro not so gung ho about setting up the -NAO that quickly but the Urals high shows up which usually preludes the idea of 10mb attack on the SPV. Interesting couple of weeks coming up if things go as planned. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Models finally coming to reality again & taking MJO into 8. It's amazing they forecasted it to be stuck in Phase 7 just like they did a couple of weeks ago. Next go around remember this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 (edited) I'm so depressed, look at how warm that is. 😔 😆 Edited November 23, 2022 by Grace 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Grace said: I'm so depressed, look at how warm that is. 😔 😆 If you're in barrow AK looks like we need to get the swimsuits out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Grace said: I'm so depressed, look at how warm that is. 😔 😆 It either won't materialize or will be more than cancelled out by an absurd heatwave around Christmas 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It either won't materialize or will be more than cancelled out by an absurd heatwave around Christmas 😉 Lol, about right. NAEFS probabilities are really hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: It either won't materialize or will be more than cancelled out by an absurd heatwave around Christmas 😉 Or better yet, it builds up even more and then fires like an ice cannon by the time Christmas gets here! 😄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 23, 2022 4 hours ago, Grace said: I'm so depressed, look at how warm that is. 😔 😆 Hopefully snow comes with, because cold without the snow is kinda like brussel sprouts without the bacon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 On 11/23/2022 at 9:02 AM, Grace said: Models finally coming to reality again & taking MJO into 8. It's amazing they forecasted it to be stuck in Phase 7 just like they did a couple of weeks ago. Next go around remember this. Will it really matter if it only gets into 8 for a few days and is weak/ nearing the COD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: Will it really matter if it only gets into 8 for a few days and is weak/ nearing the COD? Did it just matter over past 2 weeks? Obviously it did. This passage will be similar to the last one. However although the trajectory of this mojo passage is gonna be almost identical to this last one it does not mean it will have the same effect. Other factors can mute the signal which I believe will occur with this passage into 8. But this is going to do the same loop 2 or 3 times probably. Rinse & repeat. The next loop will be the more impactful mid-DEC. How much cold makes it East in the next couple of weeks depends heavily on whether the -NAO block develops & supresses the ridge. Thoughts have been the -NAO block becomes more earnest mid month. Models had been giving hope that the block develops earlier and was spilling more colder air East; However the models are now backing off of that block a little bit Giving more influence to the East Ridge. Models often jump the gun with -NAO block development. Bottom line is we'll have to wait and see how it shakes out early month with MJO. smart money is arctic cold upper Midwest modifying as it moves East then ridge returning. After that good bet of -EPO, -AO, -NAO & a possible SPV split. Edited November 24, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Happy Thanksgiving everyone! With a lot of model uncertainty over next 2 weeks watching East Asia might be more helpful since it's usually around a week before. Don't watch ok precrip type but just the track & contour lines. No sustained cold but rather cold shots that become increasingly colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 12z GFS says, hello -EPO ridge. Quiet the change. Here's model trend: Is it correct? Who knows?? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 18z GEFS...👀 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 I like the look of that west ridge. I wonder if it materializes if it will have staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Grace said: 18z GEFS...👀 Cold and dry with a few overrunning events is what I'm expecting for the Plains this winter so this looks the part. It's why this wet November (assuming the rainfall plays out Saturday too) would really come into the clutch for us. If we can get another 1-3" of QPF in the Central and Southern Plains the next couple of weeks before the cold is unleashed we can make it through a dry winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 Interesting 0z GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Grace said: Interesting 0z GFS 12z Euro agreeing, starting at the end of run. Run to run variability is nuts right now. Edited November 25, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 25, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 25, 2022 I think models are too shallow with the system next week based on the teleconnection forecast. The PNA will start trending negative the next couple of days along with the AO while the NAO trends positive. That suggests there should be enough blocking to slow the pattern down and force the trough to dig. SPC already has a rare day 5 30% and I think they're hitting it right on the head right now. Would not be surprised to see a winter storm in either Nebraska or Kansas, which would shift the following storm track south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 May need to keep an eye on that storm next week. Could trend south if blocking can happen fast enough 🤔 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 (edited) The gefs is really cold. This is getting interesting. This December is looking really different Edited November 25, 2022 by StormfanaticInd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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