StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Seems like December can't get cold anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 58 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Seems like December can't get cold anymore. Well I don't know about that but when I stepped outside this morning I confirmed November can still get freakin cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, 1816 said: Well I don't know about that but when I stepped outside this morning I confirmed November can still get freakin cold November can still get cold, but when it does, the pattern flips by the time it gets to December. When November is warm, the pattern persists through December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: November can still get cold, but when it does, the pattern flips by the time it gets to December. When November is warm, the pattern persists through December. Let's agree to revisit the topic about 12/20. I disagree with your conclusions about dec. I don't doubt the warmup coming on is real but it looks temporary to me. And I think the back half of this upcoming dec may support my thoughts. Deal? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, 1816 said: Let's agree to revisit the topic about 12/20. I disagree with your conclusions about dec. I don't doubt the warmup coming on is real but it looks temporary to me. And I think the back half of this upcoming dec may support my thoughts. Deal? Deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 I got cold in December 2020! Including the Surprise Snowstorm on the 30th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 (edited) I'll go out on a limb and say I get a 70 degree reading on 11/30 (Pewaukee, WI) Edited November 21, 2022 by HateWinterWarmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 3 hours ago, HateWinterWarmth said: November can still get cold, but when it does, the pattern flips by the time it gets to December. When November is warm, the pattern persists through December. What are you looking at? Models don't look warm. MJO suggest cold coming. Other factors do as well. Very respected unbiased experts see signals for more cold coming. We're seeing a moderation but it will not last for the majority of DEC. It might not even last into the 2nd week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 When it comes to December I am not going to believe it till I see it🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Grace said: What are you looking at? Models don't look warm. MJO suggest cold coming. Other factors do as well. Very respected unbiased experts see signals for more cold coming. We're seeing a moderation but it will not last for the majority of DEC. It might not even last into the 2nd week. I'm too traumatized by the last 10 Decembers to expect anything other than a blowtorch, no matter what the models currently show. Also, I don't believe even last week anybody was predicting the magnitude of the current "moderation", which now looks like it could be a record breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Just now, HateWinterWarmth said: I'm too traumatized by the last 10 Decembers to expect anything other than a blowtorch, no matter what the models currently show. Also, I don't believe even last week anybody was predicting the magnitude of the current "moderation", which now looks like it could be a record breaker. My past winters from 2010-2011 to 2020-2021 (2019-2020 was crazy with snow, but they usually instantly melted!) were normally very mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hassaywx1223 Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 32 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: I'll go out on a limb and say I get a 70 degree reading on 11/30 (Pewaukee, WI) Boy when that dumps 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: I'm too traumatized by the last 10 Decembers to expect anything other than a blowtorch, no matter what the models currently show. Also, I don't believe even last week anybody was predicting the magnitude of the current "moderation", which now looks like it could be a record breaker. In your area it's all because of a warm up out in front of a storm system. Here's the 12z GEFS 2m temps. I'm not sure why you're all worked up about it. 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 Updated GEFS MJO forecast. 7,8,1 The Australian model is interesting. It really moves MJO quickly 7,8,1 to finish NOV. DEC it begins to loop probably through same process. It does seem like the current movement from 6,7 is very similar to what we've done over the last couple of weeks 6,7,8. It's plausible we do this rinse & repeat several times. It's also possible progression is much slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, Grace said: Updated GEFS MJO forecast. 7,8,1 The Australian model is interesting. It really moves MJO quickly 7,8,1 to finish NOV. DEC it begins to loop probably through same process. It does seem like the current movement from 6,7 is very similar to what we've done over the last couple of weeks 6,7,8. It's plausible we do this rinse & repeat several times. It's also possible progression is much slower. So according to this forecast, we'll be right in the heart of Phase 1 right about when I hit 70 degrees on the 30th. That sounds about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Grace said: Updated GEFS MJO forecast. 7,8,1 The Australian model is interesting. It really moves MJO quickly 7,8,1 to finish NOV. DEC it begins to loop probably through same process. It does seem like the current movement from 6,7 is very similar to what we've done over the last couple of weeks 6,7,8. It's plausible we do this rinse & repeat several times. It's also possible progression is much slower. The GFS stalls it so it can launch a HUGE pool of Arctic Air! Larry Cosgrove has this launching here between 12/7 and 12/21. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said: So according to this forecast, we'll be right in the heart of Phase 1 right about when I hit 70 degrees on the 30th. That sounds about right! That's not how MJO works. There is often a lag & not robotic immediacy. Again, your big warmup is very brief & in fact is NOT even on the Euro. The Euro has you snowing EURO on top, GFS on bottom: And both are brief. No need to be a subjective negative Nancy. Be objective. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 If the mjo does indeed move into those phases it could get interesting but who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 22, 2022 Lol you guys are funny. Yea it was kind of always thought that the pattern will relax. It was just a matter of if it would happen around Thanksgiving or early part of December. It looks to be just in between those times where we get a little warm push just after Thanksgiving giving way to average to above average for about a week and we may not even squeak past the first week of December with above normal temps at this rate. The MJO is booking it through octants. Depending on how quickly we move through 7 will determine just how long that warmish potential lasts. I know many will see this and go oh no SE ridge action. Well yes it will be somewhat present but with a -NAO tendency this helps to keep the major heat much further south. This shows an active storm track through much of the center of the country though which is surely needed to help fill up reservoirs again may even present a deep south severe weather potential (Dixie Alley). By no means though is this screaming widespread record warmth. Models are now starting to pick up on the idea of a more west based -NAO pattern leading into December (probably more toward mid December at this rate), so far it has been mostly east based and the -PNA pattern has allowed a positive tilted trough through the country leading to cold dumping into midwest and the rockies to then spill over to the east with time. Unfortunately I do not see the -PNA changing anytime soon working in tandem with the still ever present -PDO pattern. This will ultimately still follow the same general pattern of this last cold batch but with an added flair to it of the west based -NAO trying to show up. This west based -NAO would occur around the end of the first week of December. This time frame in between will be the reprieve time some folks are talking about and most of the warmth should stay in the deep south with a little bit getting tossed up into the Ohio valley and mid atlantic. To unleash that cold into the Mississippi river valley and onto the east coast/NE we need the -EPO to come roaring back a bit. Not seeing many signs of that just yet but in due time this should start to show up on the models. Especially if we do get a jet extension across the Pacific. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 22, 2022 On 11/18/2022 at 9:02 AM, StLweatherjunkie said: Subsurface temps have been pretty steady since August, but they're still warmer than later year. SOI tanked so far this month suggesting ocean-atmosphere coupling is transitioning. FWIW there's still good model agreement for enso neutral by springtime, we'll see ... Yea the La Nina does not seem to be coupled with atmosphere and ocean anymore. While the ocean will certainly take time to diffuse that cold pool we still largely will have a La Nina through most of winter, that is weakening of course. Many calls were for it to die off rather early from what I was hearing back in summer like peak in, September type of deal. Doesn't quite seem to be the case at this point. The atmosphere is definitely doing its own thing right now as being seen by the MJO actually producing a wave instead of being dead or trickling around the COD. As long as we don't see anymore big wind events to extend the life of the La Nina it should fall to neutral by normal standards by late winter/ early spring as shown in the graph from CPC. This shouldn't be an issue if the atmosphere cooperates enough to push us out of the base state of the last 2.5 years. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 (edited) Me thinking about late 1st week into middle DEC Edited November 22, 2022 by Grace 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 This December has potential if things continue to line up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Oh jeez! I and the PNW may get HAMMERED! 3 minutes ago, Grace said: Welp, here we go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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