Iceresistance Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 CFS is suggesting an active Mid to Late December for storm systems. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 -Nao is going to be crucial for December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: -Nao is going to be crucial for December It's all going to start on Thanksgiving! Who wants to freeze some turkeys outside? 😆 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Okay, I'm now seriously concerned for December, the MJO forecast is eerily similar to 1983 and 1989! 1983, Green Line is November and Blue Line is December 1989 Current MJO forecast (11.16.2022) This next question is mostly reserved for the Pro Mets here, such as @ClicheVortex2014 , @so_whats_happening, and @Ingyball, but are we facing a possibility of a December 1983 or December 1989 Cold Wave all over again? Edited November 17, 2022 by Iceresistance Forgot to add 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Okay, I'm now seriously concerned for December, the MJO forecast is eerily similar to 1983 and 1989! 1983, Green Line is November and Blue Line is December 1989 Current MJO forecast (11.16.2022) This next question is mostly reserved for the Pro Mets here, such as @ClicheVortex2014 , @so_whats_happening, and @Ingyball, but are we facing a possibility of a December 1983 or December 1989 Cold Wave all over again? I don’t know about those comparisons but MJO is just one thing. You also need high-latitude blocking to cooperate to get a truly brutal/prolonged cold air outbreak. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I don’t know about those comparisons but MJO is just one thing. You also need high-latitude blocking to cooperate to get a truly brutal/prolonged cold air outbreak. The comparisons are intended to show the similar MJO positions that led up to the December 1983 and 1989 cold outbreaks. The Teleconnections are also favoring the possibility of the December outbreak with a -AO, -NAO, and the mostly neutral or -PNA. Edited November 17, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 17, 2022 20 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Okay, I'm now seriously concerned for December, the MJO forecast is eerily similar to 1983 and 1989! 1983, Green Line is November and Blue Line is December 1989 Current MJO forecast (11.16.2022) This next question is mostly reserved for the Pro Mets here, such as @ClicheVortex2014 , @so_whats_happening, and @Ingyball, but are we facing a possibility of a December 1983 or December 1989 Cold Wave all over again? 19 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I don’t know about those comparisons but MJO is just one thing. You also need high-latitude blocking to cooperate to get a truly brutal/prolonged cold air outbreak. Those analogs may not be as bad as I initially thought. 1982-83 was the super El Nino, but by December (NDJ tri monthly) 1983 we were firmly in La Nina, nearly on par as what Nino 3.4 currently reads. 1988-89 is one of my analogs for this year but by December (NDJ tri monthly) were were in negative neutral. However, since we were coming out of La Nina in 89 the atmosphere was likely closer to that than El Nino. My #1 analog for this winter is 2000-2001. December 2000 was the 2nd coldest on record (at the time and still is I believe) for Wichita and #1 coldest for Tulsa. I do think someone east of the Rockies gets some real cold if the MJO behaves, but I'm not sure where the deepest cold will be positioned yet. I would like to see a stratospheric warming event soon before talking about cold on the level of 1983 and 1989, but it's not necessary to get well below normal temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 18, 2022 48 minutes ago, Grace said: Yea 00z GFS really hinting at a sustained cold pattern coming up. Temps on average could be anywhere from 4-8 degrees below average and for this time of year that is really impressive to see. Meaning highs will get close to freezing or just slightly above during this time period and lows in the teens. We don't normally have this until January/February. The Scandi ridging looks to push -NAO regime a bit, east based seems to be the look for now but could keep pushing west over time. The -EPO is on and off but no real strong signal showing up of strong pacific flow everything looks to be pushed equatorward with any warmth flooding the country. Storm maybe at the end of the month as the -NAO rises? Lets see what happens. I worry about the MJO but we may pop out in 6 which is a cold signal in the east for December. 7 produces a weak SE ridge style pattern and then we get into the fun portions of the MJO as we go into the mid December to end of month timeframe. La Nina still firmly intact in fact the waters may surface within the next month (those are pretty darn cold). Don't believe we will see a full collapse of oceanic conditions until mid January at this point and that is a big if still. Long range 10mb heights show plenty of attacks to help keep SPV weaker. Some interesting stuff towards the end of the 00z run today though. Ill post when it is done loading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 18, 2022 As we get past 240 it is long range but still something to watch. Here is 10mb and the subsequent 500mb height map. Can you spot what causes the heat flux over Asia? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Yea 00z GFS really hinting at a sustained cold pattern coming up. Temps on average could be anywhere from 4-8 degrees below average and for this time of year that is really impressive to see. Meaning highs will get close to freezing or just slightly above during this time period and lows in the teens. We don't normally have this until January/February. The Scandi ridging looks to push -NAO regime a bit, east based seems to be the look for now but could keep pushing west over time. The -EPO is on and off but no real strong signal showing up of strong pacific flow everything looks to be pushed equatorward with any warmth flooding the country. Storm maybe at the end of the month as the -NAO rises? Lets see what happens. I worry about the MJO but we may pop out in 6 which is a cold signal in the east for December. 7 produces a weak SE ridge style pattern and then we get into the fun portions of the MJO as we go into the mid December to end of month timeframe. La Nina still firmly intact in fact the waters may surface within the next month (those are pretty darn cold). Don't believe we will see a full collapse of oceanic conditions until mid January at this point and that is a big if still. Long range 10mb heights show plenty of attacks to help keep SPV weaker. Some interesting stuff towards the end of the 00z run today though. Ill post when it is done loading. Subsurface temps have been pretty steady since August, but they're still warmer than later year. SOI tanked so far this month suggesting ocean-atmosphere coupling is transitioning. FWIW there's still good model agreement for enso neutral by springtime, we'll see ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 If there's anything more erratic in modeling than MJO forecasts I'd hate to see it. A few weeks ago we had models forecasting like a long, long pause out of phase 6 barely into 7 & just staying there. Reality was it ended up going through 7, 8 & close to 1. Recently models were taking it back into 6 & sticking in 7 again. BOM update on 15th has MJO back in Phase 7 by 20th & then into Phase 8 by the 22nd. I guess I missed this. I've learned to take all & every MJO forecast with a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, Grace said: If there's anything more erratic in modeling than MJO forecasts I'd hate to see it. A few weeks ago we had models forecasting like a long, long pause out of phase 6 barely into 7 & just staying there. Reality was it ended up going through 7, 8 & close to 1. Recently models were taking it back into 6 & sticking in 7 again. BOM update on 15th has MJO back in Phase 7 by 20th & then into Phase 8 by the 22nd. I guess I missed this. I've learned to take all & every MJO forecast with a grain of salt. CPC just updated, MJO may have just entered into Phase 5, current forecast suggests that the MJO may stall for a period of time in Phase 7, this is similar to what it did in November/December 1983. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: CPC just updated, MJO may have just entered into Phase 5, current forecast suggests that the MJO may stall for a period of time in Phase 7, this is similar to what it did in November/December 1983. But my point is that it forecast previously to stall in Phase 7 & was wrong. Could be a rinse & repeat. Some MJO experts lean that way. It's currently creeping into 5 but in the COD & pretty much zero influence on pattern at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Grace said: But my point is that it forecast previously to stall in Phase 7 & was wrong. Could be a rinse & repeat. Some MJO experts lean that way. It's currently creeping into 5 but in the COD & pretty much zero influence on pattern at the moment. I have the Climate Prediction Center's MJO forecast Edited November 18, 2022 by Iceresistance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Hate to be the bringer of bad news, but the GFS is now throwing cold (warm?) water on the idea of a December any different from the ones we've seen for the past 10 years. Someone talk me off the ledge, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted November 18, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said: Hate to be the bringer of bad news, but the GFS is now throwing cold (warm?) water on the idea of a December any different from the ones we've seen for the past 10 years. Someone talk me off the ledge, please. You selected hour 384 of 1 deterministic GFS run that only goes out to December 4th. You might as well throw darts at a board at that point. I'm sure the next GFS run will have something completely different. Nor does the pattern on December 4th represent the whole month. We'll likely see a warm up towards the end of November into December (we'll be doing ours in the Plains this up coming week) before another big cool down. It's difficult to get deep cold to last an entire month. It happens but it's rare. Instead we're probably looking at a 2 week period where intense cold is possible somewhere. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ingyball said: You selected hour 384 of 1 deterministic GFS run that only goes out to December 4th. You might as well throw darts at a board at that point. I'm sure the next GFS run will have something completely different. Nor does the pattern on December 4th represent the whole month. We'll likely see a warm up towards the end of November into December (we'll be doing ours in the Plains this up coming week) before another big cool down. It's difficult to get deep cold to last an entire month. It happens but it's rare. Instead we're probably looking at a 2 week period where intense cold is possible somewhere. I have looked at the ensembles and the CFS, it has been showing the warmer Late November and into December for a while. Then that is when we start worrying about a cold wave unleashed from Canada in Mid to Late December. The warm-up here is going to allow the cold air to bottle up in Alaska and Canada that is blocked from coming south by the stronger Jet Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Like Anthony said, DEC will start off looking 1975 is, which is warm east but no locked in +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 (edited) 18 hours ago, Iceresistance said: I have looked at the ensembles and the CFS, it has been showing the warmer Late November and into December for a while. Then that is when we start worrying about a cold wave unleashed from Canada in Mid to Late December. The warm-up here is going to allow the cold air to bottle up in Alaska and Canada that is blocked from coming south by the stronger Jet Stream. This is normal, the ongoing winter blast took a lot out of the Arctic and now the reservoir of cold needs to recharge. Cold air will return at some point this winter, don't worry. Northern tier snow pack is looking healthy already this year and I'm not seeing enough incoming warmth to melt it. Let's get those snow holes filled in before the next push of winter ... Edited November 19, 2022 by StLweatherjunkie 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 12z Euro shows the next blast coming down to start December: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjl2009 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: 12z Euro shows the next blast coming down to start December: Hopefully it makes it way east. On the TWC this morning, Greg Postel was mentioning today could be the last real winter like day until almost mid-December in some places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Bradjl2009 said: Hopefully it makes it way east. On the TWC this morning, Greg Postel was mentioning today could be the last real winter like day until almost mid-December in some places. I have a really bad feeling about the way this December is starting to shape up. Despite all the favorable cold signals, warmth seems to be the name of the game for the front half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 A couple of experts that I deeply respect with MJO believe we go 7,8,1 in DEC. Looking at all La Nina Decembers with a similar MJO trajectory it looked like this: Each year had differences. Most were cold. I did not look at whether they were east based or west based La Nina's. Potentially the top 2 MJO analogs are 1983, 1989. Both were extremely cold. I don't think DEC starts off cold but probably trends that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 21, 2022 Share Posted November 21, 2022 It's LR but both the EPS & GEFS showing signals of moving in a good direction into late 1st week of DEC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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