Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[StretchCT]

Putting this here cause... everyone can see it!  Check out the flow over Canada!  I did not do the slides in reverse.

 

[Iceresistance]

45 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Putting this here cause... everyone can see it!  Check out the flow over Canada!  I did not do the slides in reverse.

 

Looks like someone pulled out an Uno Reverse card on the storm system in Canada! 😆

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 hour ago, MotownWX said:

Hope everyone is well.  Been a lot of months since stopping by. 

Revisiting my post from April...

The change to stormy/cold happened later than usual.  But it's fundamentally still the same:  Mild early to mid-winter, big pattern flip late winter, wrecked spring. 

It's just gotten so predictable. 

Take care, all. 

While I don't completely disagree, I do have some bones to pick

1) You glossed over the MAJOR Christmas blizzard that provides the first white Christmas in years for many.

2) The idea that a change to a stormy/cold pattern ever occurred is debatable. It's been a west favored winter since the beginning.

3) The wrecked spring is similarly debatable

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Here comes winter

[so_whats_happening]

Some impressive cooling in the last 2 weeks off the west coast. -PDO re-establishing itself? The bathtub water that will be the gulf of mexico is going to be something to watch and see how that sets us up for spring and summer patterns. You can also see just how bad the Antarctic sea ice is. As long as we don't have a solid blue tongue along the west coast of South America we should at least go neutral come late spring.

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[Guest]

17 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

While I don't completely disagree, I do have some bones to pick

1) You glossed over the MAJOR Christmas blizzard that provides the first white Christmas in years for many.

2) The idea that a change to a stormy/cold pattern ever occurred is debatable. It's been a west favored winter since the beginning.

3) The wrecked spring is similarly debatable

His idea of cold/stormy is anything under 75.

Spring, while not officially wrecked yet, definitely looks precarious again in this part of the country. 

[Hassaywx1223]

13 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Here comes winter

Never fails I don’t get excited til mid April anymore warm all winter and then 30s and 20s in march 

[beaver56]

Didn't these maps say late December was blockbuster cold as well?  I have very little faith in any of this at all right now.  Bring on spring.

[Mulaman984]

20 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Here comes winter

 

[Penn State]

Yes. 

[Penn State]

EPS over the last few days.. Some real bangers in there. Saw a 49 off the coast at one point. 

[Iceresistance]

Winter: I've been waiting to come in March to fool all of you into thinking I was done early. 

[Pghsnow]

Judah Cohen whole blog in the link. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Summary

 

• The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently slightly positive and is predicted to straddle either side of neutral the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic are currently mostly negative and are predicted to remain mostly mixed the next two weeks. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain negative the next two weeks as pressure/geopotential height anomalies are currently positive and are predicted to remain positive across Greenland the next two weeks.
• This week predicted ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered near Iceland will favor troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Western Europe with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across Eastern Europe. However next week ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies previously centered near Iceland will become centered near Greenland favoring troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Europe with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across Southern Europe.  This pattern favors this week normal to below normal temperatures across Western Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) with normal to above normal temperatures across Northern and Eastern Europe.  However next week normal to above normal temperatures will become more widespread across Southern Europe with normal to below normal temperatures across Northern Europe including the UK.
• The predicted general pattern across Asia the next two weeks is troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across Northern Asia with ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered across Southern Asia. The induced strong zonal or westerly flow the next two weeks favors normal to above normal temperatures across much of Asia with normal to below normal temperatures limited across far Northwestern Asia and far Northern Siberia. 
• The general pattern predicted across North America the next two weeks is ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies centered south of the Aleutians forcing troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies across much of Canada and the Western United States (US) with more ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across the Southeastern US. However, during early March the ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies from Greenland will begin to spread into Northeastern Canada while the ridging south of the Aleutians amplifies and pushes north and west towards the Bering Strait allowing troughing to expand across much of the US.  This pattern generally favors this week normal to below normal across Alaska, Western Canada and the Western US with normal to above normal temperatures across Eastern Canada and the Eastern US.  However, next week Alaska will transition to mostly above normal temperatures as the Aleutian ridging pushes north into Alaska while the below normal temperatures will push into Eastern Canada and the Eastern US.
• I discuss the predicted large polar vortex (PV) disruption and its potential impacts on Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures. It does appear that coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is underway but the coupling is far from textbook and therefore large uncertainties remain.

Plain Language Summary

A major disruption of the polar vortex (PV) is ongoing with no end in sight and is referred to as a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW; see Figure 13).  Often following SSWs, more severe wintry weather becomes more widespread across Northern Europe and Asia.  Though Europe is trending colder much of Asia is quite mild with colder temperatures spreading across North America (see Figures 6 and 9).  And though the Eastern US has been mild for much of the winter, during the first half March the colder temperatures should sweep into the Eastern US.  Though the classical response to SSWs including high pressure across Greenland and colder temperatures across Northern Europe are predicted they are predicted to be transitory (see Figure 8 and Figure ii).  

Impacts

Today is the last day of meteorological winter.  I think that it is no secret that I have struggled trying to understand the dynamics of the atmosphere, the behavior of the polar vortex (PV) and the relationship to the weather.  But my intellectual struggles don’t impact the winter forecast and I will share shortly the winter temperature anomaly observations with the temperature anomaly forecasts posted in the 28 November 2022 blog.  I will provide my own perspective about the forecasts, and everyone can make their own judgments.

 

[Pghsnow]

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Yowza

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Yowza

The period is interesting to be sure. One EPS member spit out this gem.

[RobB]

Ah yes.  Spring time anomalies 😉

 

[SNOWBOB11]

4 hours ago, MaineJay said:

The period is interesting to be sure. One EPS member spit out this gem.

Just a casual 932mb low sitting off the coast lol. Nothing strange to see here.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, RobB said:

Ah yes.  Spring time anomalies 😉

 

It's not much of a stretch to say that Spring is now colder than Winter. 

[Psu1313]

1 hour ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

It's not much of a stretch to say that Spring is now colder than Winter. 

It actually is a stretch if you are talking about actual temperature. Focusing on departures does not change actual temperatures. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

It actually is a stretch if you are talking about actual temperature. Focusing on departures does not change actual temperatures. 

It's not much of a stretch considering most of my winter temperatures were in the Upper 30's to high 40's (with a few 50's sprinkled in) this winter, and now Spring temps are in the mid-30's to low 40's. 

[Al_Czervik]

12 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

It's not much of a stretch considering most of my winter temperatures were in the Upper 30's to high 40's (with a few 50's sprinkled in) this winter, and now Spring temps are in the mid-30's to low 40's. 

I do think we are going to have a rough start to spring.  March per the CPC looks chilly.  I just hope this isn't 2018 where it was the fourth week of April before normal temps returned.

On the plus side, the west has had a great wet season.  Fingers crossed the monsoons are as active as last year.

[RobB]

12Z

[Hassaywx1223]

Boy the gfs wants to say “man I know we missed winter but here you all go in the US enjoy January in march” where was this 2 months ago. I’m in northern Ohio and everything is budded with 2 days of sun and high 40s low 50s this is going to be a brutal budding season and im sure people down south it’ll be worse. Everything is ready and about to go into pause mode

[Ohiobuckeye45]