Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

2/18 12Z NAEFS 

[so_whats_happening]

It looks like we experience our first taste of what the SSW may bring to the continent. This week will feature a large push of cold into the west with a spoke or two going through the Ohio valley/ GL and portions of upper mid Atlantic and New England. The second intrusion looks to occur around the end of the first week going into the second week of March this will probably last until about mid March area with what would likely be another around the end of March.

Overall with the way the pattern has gone this year it isn't much a surprise the west is seeing some of the coldest temps overall. We will still feature cold periods but nothing super anomalous I think we may be able to find a healthy balance of the SER and cold pushing down to have some surprises left in the tank. Around the end of the month and into early March seem to be a potential showdown that could bring about a storm or two. Especially if the -NAO can be realized. Don't focus too much past 240 but the idea looks to be less storminess around Greenland a better looking 50/50 low setup and a nudging in of higher heights to at least southern Greenland if not just slightly east of there as of now. Remember how the -NAO started earlier this year models struggled and then really caught onto it mid range which is about the last few days of February at this point. The typical idea of a -NAO block is 2-3 weeks in the region, so don't be surprised if models develop and try to dislodge it rather quickly.

This will be probably be our final opportunity window at seeing something of any kind in the region of wintry weather. Typical last snowfall chance in this region drops quickly past mid March but not improbable to see it as late as April for a significant weather event.

[Iceresistance]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It looks like we experience our first taste of what the SSW may bring to the continent. This week will feature a large push of cold into the west with a spoke or two going through the Ohio valley/ GL and portions of upper mid Atlantic and New England. The second intrusion looks to occur around the end of the first week going into the second week of March this will probably last until about mid March area with what would likely be another around the end of March.

Overall with the way the pattern has gone this year it isn't much a surprise the west is seeing some of the coldest temps overall. We will still feature cold periods but nothing super anomalous I think we may be able to find a healthy balance of the SER and cold pushing down to have some surprises left in the tank. Around the end of the month and into early March seem to be a potential showdown that could bring about a storm or two. Especially if the -NAO can be realized. Don't focus too much past 240 but the idea looks to be less storminess around Greenland a better looking 50/50 low setup and a nudging in of higher heights to at least southern Greenland if not just slightly east of there as of now. Remember how the -NAO started earlier this year models struggled and then really caught onto it mid range which is about the last few days of February at this point. The typical idea of a -NAO block is 2-3 weeks in the region, so don't be surprised if models develop and try to dislodge it rather quickly.

This will be probably be our final opportunity window at seeing something of any kind in the region of wintry weather. Typical last snowfall chance in this region drops quickly past mid March but not improbable to see it as late as April for a significant weather event.

Joe Bastardi has mentioned the -NAO helping out the New England area from the snow drought.

[so_whats_happening]

10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Joe Bastardi has mentioned the -NAO helping out the New England area from the snow drought.

Maybe as we already saw with the last -NAO it didn't do much for the region. They managed some snow but overall was still a west coast thing and upper Midwest. This go around is fairing a bit different in that the western PAC is actually looking to be on our side instead of having a raging jet (+WPO). This will allow for ridging to bubble up through Alaska at times and may offer an opportunity or two to come about but im still rather skeptical of the idea as of now. The west will still have a -PNA overall with a not to great EPO look as well which pushes the cold west of us and we get a punch or two of some rather cold air than something even remotely sustained. If we can time the cold leaving and the slowing down of the shortwaves due to the -NAO we may have some fun. As the -NAO weakens, if it truly develops in a similar fashion to the one in February, then we look to maybe have one last hurrah of a system as we go into mid March when the -NAO pattern would likely break down. Still very far in advance but I do like the signal around end of the month for the east coast lets see how that one plays out. 

Overall though I will enjoy this 70 degree temp day coming up Thursday! This could be a good opportunity for the southern plains to get some beneficial rains and maybe some snow

Edited February 19, 2023 by so_whats_happening

[so_whats_happening]

Just a quick update on seasonal snow totals. Still less than 1" on the season when our average is around 24". Here you can check seasonal totals going back to 2008-09 winter

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/index.html?season=2015-2016&date=2017021912&version=3

[RobB]

2/19 12Z NAEFS:

[StormfanaticInd]

23 minutes ago, RobB said:

2/19 12Z NAEFS:

Severe weather is going to take off here soon ⛈️ 🌪 

[StretchCT]

2 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Just a quick update on seasonal snow totals. Still less than 1" on the season when our average is around 24". Here you can check seasonal totals going back to 2008-09 winter

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/index.html?season=2015-2016&date=2017021912&version=3

Here's a gif of each season 2008 to today

[MaineJay]

On 2/19/2023 at 9:55 AM, Iceresistance said:

Joe Bastardi has mentioned the -NAO helping out the New England area from the snow drought.

While it hasn't been a blockbuster, we've managed some winter in areas. I've got about 48" of snow, not terrible, but still almost 2 feet below average.  

[beaver56]

Been awful here, but it could be worse.  Still would like to get some more rain in the next 6 weeks to get things closer to normal going into the spring and summer.

[TLChip]

I think the next week or so looks solid for the northern NE. Might drop some winter precip farther south, maybe northern PA. 

Ive lost almost all hope at seeing anything good IMBY this year. Maybe if the stars align, but I’m not betting against the ugly SER that’s been so prevalent this year. Lets go for the record of least snowiest year at this point. Cold would be nice though, I don’t look forward to summer heat. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

at this point this is the only thing that becomes of interest for me, and thats a minimum of 2-3 weeks out 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[StretchCT]

Definitely been a strange month so far. To be fair, its a strange winter overall but we've had one of the coldest temps in Feb (BDR had it's 3rd lowest for Feb), had the warmest temp for Feb, but also have had the least amount of precip. Record at BDR is 0.43 in 1987 and tied for least snowfall with a trace.  Given the temperature dynamics, the lack of precip is surprising. 

Euro saying no way to the precip deficit as it pours all kinds of stuff on us the last week of Feb. We'll see if that pushes north.

Edited February 20, 2023 by StretchCT

[Iceresistance]

Man! That SE Ridge is stubborn!

[Psu1313]

What will Phase 8 really mean? Even if we were to say that all Phase 8's were created equally, we'd end up with a FMA of the following:

That's a bit cooler than average on the EC and warmer than average through most of the rest of the country. Precipitation chances would also increase for the East. We cannot take every Phase 8 at face value though. My view is that the Pacific and the SER are pretty much locked in right now. NAO might sprout due to the SSW. To me, that would indicate a cooler than normal west, with a prevelance of cutters but then a cold high pressure pushing down on NE which could lead to some really interesting weather in upstate NY, NH, MA, VT, and ME. Even if that manifests, coastal cities still have a major problem:

I'm 85% confident that most of the east is going to enter spring as of March 7th with the potential exception of New England. I still have a small amount of hope for something good over the between the 25th and 7th for the east, but even then, our anomalies are still going to point above average for March in my opinion. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Psu1313

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

What will Phase 8 really mean? Even if we were to say that all Phase 8's were created equally, we'd end up with a FMA of the following:

That's a bit cooler than average on the EC and warmer than average through most of the rest of the country. Precipitation chances would also increase for the East. We cannot take every Phase 8 at face value though. My view is that the Pacific and the SER are pretty much locked in right now. NAO might sprout due to the SSW. To me, that would indicate a cooler than normal west, with a prevelance of cutters but then a cold high pressure pushing down on NE which could lead to some really interesting weather in upstate NY, NH, MA, VT, and ME. Even if that manifests, coastal cities still have a major problem:

I'm 85% confident that most of the east is going to enter spring as of March 7th with the potential exception of New England. I still have a small amount of hope for something good over the between the 25th and 7th for the east, but even then, our anomalies are still going to point above average for March in my opinion. 

My only issue with that last take is the -NAO throwing a wrinkle in that idea. While it doesn't necessarily mean cold it does mean the opportunity is opened again. We experienced a rather nice change of temps around mid December and well we all know how the month ended basically in the freezer for about a week. This will likely follow in step with how our last bout of -NAO went, huge temp spike as the -NAO develops, mild conditions as it settles in, and as it tries to break down we get potentially another intense cold blast. This timeline would follow that by March 1st we have a decent -NAO in place it dies by about mid month (2-3 weeks of the pattern) then by the 3rd week to the end of the month we potentially get another large cold blast? 

Honestly overall not much has changed from the last time we had a -NAO i dont see a reason to expect anything different this go around. As much as I and probably many others would like a warm March and April at this point im not so sure those are in the cards coming up. With two months now strongly positive across much of the east it would be rather impressive to see it continue another whole month or two without the bottom falling out.

This go around also does have a bit of upper level support in that an SSW is occurring so it does really factor in the -NAO idea much better and the spilling out of cold from the arctic. Again it doesn't always mean US bound cold but really would not be surprised if the two places that have not gotten much cold this year (US and much of Western/central Europe) get rather cold.

[so_whats_happening]

4 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Definitely been a strange month so far. To be fair, its a strange winter overall but we've had one of the coldest temps in Feb (BDR had it's 3rd lowest for Feb), had the warmest temp for Feb, but also have had the least amount of precip. Record at BDR is 0.43 in 1987 and tied for least snowfall with a trace.  Given the temperature dynamics, the lack of precip is surprising. 

Euro saying no way to the precip deficit as it pours all kinds of stuff on us the last week of Feb. We'll see if that pushes north.

Westerly flow at its finest in keeping areas south of the PA border essentially dry.

[so_whats_happening]

Also just wanted to post quick before I leave to go home this is a good depiction of what a retrograding pattern looks like.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

FEB alone phase 8, excluding a 3 month average, for some reason the data alone for March is unavailable. 

 

Because of "lack of data" not sure if that means because of its rarity or what

Edited February 20, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[StLweatherjunkie]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Also just wanted to post quick before I leave to go home this is a good depiction of what a retrograding pattern looks like.

Holy high latitude blocking Batman!

[RobB]

First 8 days of March with the 2/21 0Z NAEFS 

[StretchCT]

Weeklies are warmer in first two weeks than previous runs.  Similar to a touch cooler in the 3 and 4 weeks.

Won't let me load the gif, so...

 

[StormfanaticInd]

I'm so ready for this winter to end🙄

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm so ready for this winter to end🙄

It ended in late December

[beaver56]

58 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

I'm so ready for this winter to end🙄

It has definitely been tough sledding, quite literally, for a lot of us in this region.  Everything is about averages though, so eventually we will hit a lucky streak.  I just hope the trade off for a lackluster winter is a very early and warm spring.  I doubt that happens, but one can hope I guess.