Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Grace]

Who wants to start a thread for next Tuesday?

 

 

I started one!

 

Edited November 9, 2022 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Who wants to start a thread for next Tuesday?

 

 

I started one!

 

The GEM/CMC is sort of how I see that going but hey could be a surprise for some ohio valley folks.

[Hassaywx1223]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Who wants to start a thread for next Tuesday?

 

 

I started one!

 

Icon also hinting the beginning of a system 

[Grace]

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

We've inched into Phase 1 as of today, but every model has it heading back to null within a couple of days, and then re-emerging in 5. It will pass through 5, 6, and 7 in December, which gives us a high chance of seeing our typical modern December weather pattern:

 

[Grace]

45 minutes ago, HateWinterWarmth said:

We've inched into Phase 1 as of today, but every model has it heading back to null within a couple of days, and then re-emerging in 5. It will pass through 5, 6, and 7 in December, which gives us a high chance of seeing our typical modern December weather pattern:

 

Remember those CPC MJO composites are based on MJO regardless of ENSO. This site has composites based on research of MJO during different ENSO states. 

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

For La Nina here are NOV phases 5,6,7.

 

Phase 5 on average can produce cold patterns in the east. 6 is bad & 7 not great but not terrible. 

But let's also remember that the MJO forecasts by models have been horrendous over the last month. Most never had the MJO making it halfway through 7. So, there's really no gurantee it's being modeled correctly. 

Not only that, the million dollar question is always how influential will MJO be upon the pattern. So.etimes other drivers mute the signal. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Grace

[StormfanaticInd]

🤔

[Grace]

Stratospheric PV spilt on Euro shown at 10mb & 50mb. This might lead to fun by mid DEC. Nothing is a given. 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[StretchCT]

Got myself a little creeped out this morning.  The EPS and GFS long range look very similar. 

Just one little difference for the NE, on the most important day of the run.

[Grace]

Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb 😀

[StormfanaticInd]

Sometimes when November suddenly shifts to sustained cold it can be a sign of a big winter coming 

[StormfanaticInd]

Models are starting to hint at a potential Thanksgiving storm next week. 👀

[StormfanaticInd]

1 hour ago, Grace said:

Good morning! JMA new DEC 500mb 😀

Fingers 🤞🏿 

[Ingyball]

Well winter is certainly here. I think it's only a taste of what's to come though.

[Iceresistance]

Well, I've been hearing on the other forums that this winter is looking absolutely crazy, and we're starting to talk about the December potential, what is December looking like right now in the long range? And which weeks is the cold and (possibly) snow are the most likely? I will be in Missouri in the last week of December.

[so_whats_happening]

I would like to see what comes of the Scandi High that is in place. Should be around until about Thanksgiving area. It doesn't always happen but usually that is the lead up to a Greenland block scenario (east or west is yet to be determined). Could have a situation where we may only get a week or so of normal to above normal temps at the end of November early December before we go back into the cold pattern for a week or so than back to average or above average for another week. Fairly back and forth potential showing up in December with MJO progression. If we do in fact get some Greenland blocking things may get fun across the lower 48. As Ingy stated this may just be a preview for the year. We shall see!

To mention MJO activity it seems as though we are about to get another go of a decent wave through 5/6/7/8 as we move into December. We may get quite the upwelling situation going on as we move into December, peak of the Nina? Combined with a decent wind event around the dateline towards the end of the month things may quickly change within the subsurface for late season.

I want to hold my excitement potential back a bit because it would be wonderful to actually have a winter where snow lasts on the ground for more than 2 weeks lol

[Hiramite]

An article on Tonga's possible winter impacts.   (I don't know how reputable the source/author is.)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-polar-vortex-cooling-event-update-cold-anomaly-winter-season-influence-fa/

Here's the summary.

Quote

The January eruption of Hunga Tonga in the South Pacific has injected a large amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. That water vapor is now causing significant cooling of the southern stratosphere, continuing into late Fall and early Winter.

We looked at the historical data and found that there is a weak indication of the south stratospheric cooling, coinciding with later stratospheric warming events over the northern hemisphere. But much more research is needed, as other background signals can be at play.

Stratospheric warming during the northern hemisphere winter can mean a heavy disruption of circulation. This causes pressure changes and can unleash cold air from the Arctic into the United States and Europe.

It would make sense for the changes in the stratosphere on the southern side of the planet could also impact the northern hemisphere. As the cooling in the southern hemisphere is substantial, the upcoming winter will be a great real-life “lab test” of the potential global weather changes.

 

[StretchCT]

Putting this here as it relates to winter weather forecasting.  It's mostly NE specific, but some of the tools they use and methodologies apply wherever. 

 

 

[StretchCT]

This is the outlook video from Norton MA NWS.  Again a NE specific video, but some points can be taken elsewhere.  Disregard the thumbnail, it's just one of the slides from the presentation. 

 

[StretchCT]

Last one, this for using models for winter weather.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I’m officially in Amarillo, Texas. My first heavy snow of the year was in eastern Oklahoma and I got to drive through it. Had a heavy snow band of ~35 dBz. Stayed in a hotel in El Reno, OK and woke up to this

Some more pictures through the day. As you can see, snow melted/tapered off pretty gradually.

Spoiler

 

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I’m officially in Amarillo, Texas. My first heavy snow of the year was in eastern Oklahoma and I got to drive through it. Had a heavy snow band of ~35 dBz. Stayed in a hotel in El Reno, OK and woke up to this

Some more pictures through the day. As you can see, snow melted/tapered off pretty gradually.

  Hide contents

 

 

 

 

How much was measured?

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

How much was measured?

I didn't measure, but here's from OUN.

 Btw, when I got to that 6-8" bullseye (2 or 3 pm) I could see the grass. It melted really quick.

 

[so_whats_happening]

15 hours ago, Hiramite said:

An article on Tonga's possible winter impacts.   (I don't know how reputable the source/author is.)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/stratosphere-polar-vortex-cooling-event-update-cold-anomaly-winter-season-influence-fa/

Here's the summary.

 

The one thing that was kind of wild to see was this correlation. Whether it was a balance or not this was rather eye opening with the lowest pressures in the southern hemisphere being almost exactly dur north into the blocking the ridging that was around northern Canada. In the same area in the southern hemisphere where the sea ice spread out much further than what typically occurs.