Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[RobB]

Blah blah...

 

2/22 12Z NAEFS:

[Iceresistance]

 

[Guest]

50 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

 

I have a spring break trip planned to Gulf Shores, AL at the end of March. With my luck ,this ridge will decide to finally break down around that time. 

[Pghsnow]

Judah Cohen blog https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Plain Language Summary

A major disruption of the polar vortex (PV) is ongoing with no end in sight and is referred to as a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW; see Figure 13).  Often following SSWs, more severe wintry weather becomes more widespread across Northern Europe and Asia.  But Europe and Asia are quite mild with colder temperatures widespread across North America (see Figures 3 and 6).  However, I do think that in March the more classical negative NAO temperature pattern that includes colder temperatures across Northern Europe and/or Asia is likely.  Meanwhile while cold temperatures are widespread in Canada and the Western US, atmospheric resistance to the cold air making it into the Eastern US, courtesy of a Southeastern US ridge, continues. Observing its tenacity is impressive even though I don’t really understand it and is horribly frustrating as a snow lover.  But could the SSW provide a small window of opportunity as Ol’ Man Winter to make an appearance as he exits for his summer vacation.

Impacts

Happy President’s Day!  A US holiday celebrating George Washington and Abraham Lincoln but for me how holds a special place in my heart because, as far as I know, is the only day/holiday with two major Mid-Atlantic/Northeast snowstorms that produced two feet plus of snow in 1979 and 2003.  And you can see snowfall maps and their relative rank among disruptive East Coast winter storms here: Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale table from NOAA.

I think the question of whether the stratosphere will couple to the troposphere has been answered in the affirmative and instead becomes the questions of when, duration and extent.  A couple of mid-tropospheric features that I have been speculating about in the blog the past two weeks (see last week’s blog and from and 6 February 2023) are now appearing in the numerical model forecasts. In general I do believe that the model forecasts are becoming more reliable.  The first is a closed low over Western Asia and Northern Europe this week (see Figure 2) but even more impressively in early March (see Figure 8). This feature I have referred to in the blog for years as the tropospheric reflection of the polar vortex (PV) center in the stratosphere. The second feature is Greenland blocking/high pressure which now is predicted in all the weather models and looks quite impressive in early March (see Figure 8) and is the most iconic tropospheric feature associated with the tropospheric response to major SSWs.  I do think that the prospects of a classical negative NAO temperature pattern with relatively colder temperatures across Northern Europe and/or Northern Asia with relatively milder temperatures across Southern Europe and/or Southern Asia in March is looking increasingly likely but two important questions remain - the magnitude of the temperature anomalies and the spatial extent.

[RobB]

Even though the NAEFS show the beginning weeks of meteorological Spring, here is today's 12Z:

 

[Iceresistance]

Could we have a blockbuster March and keep the Winter thread going until Spring Break or April?

[Pghsnow]

[Mulaman984]

 

[RobB]

2/24 12Z NAEFS:

[Ingyball]

Been back for over a week now but I haven't done much weather stuff outside of work because I came down with bronchitis so this is my first post since being back. I didn't get to do everything I wanted during my trip due to illness, but my girlfriend and I got engaged so it's been an exciting time overall. 

 

The next few weeks definitely look interesting though. Highly amplified MJO and a continued -PNA would hint at a very active storm pattern for the U.S, especially when some blocking develops with the -NAO.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[SNOWBOB11]

45 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Only took until meteorological spring to get those blues going.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

That would be an insane EPO reversal 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

Nearly the whole CONUS below normal.  East with above normal precip and below normal temps 🤔

Edited February 27, 2023 by StretchCT

[TLChip]

16 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Nearly the whole CONUS below normal.  East with above normal precip and below normal temps 🤔

Give it a week or two 😂. Sooner or later something’s gotta break though. Cold rain in April sounds about right.

[Al_Czervik]

Something tells me the flip back to spring time warmth is not going to come easy for the northern half of country

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

Something tells me the flip back to spring time warmth is not going to come easy for the northern half of country

It never does. Warmth in the winter is easier to come by than warmth in the Spring. 

[Wnwniner]

Question for the experts...

During winter, we split our front line crews into two shifts-day and night.  This way, when a storm comes, we already have staff at night for plowing/salting, etc.  We traditionally end this winter shift around the start of April, and I am the one who has to make the call.  

I am considering coming out of this in mid-March (crews are excited to get back to a normal 1st shift schedule) but don't want to come out too early if there is risk of a salt run/plow event in late march.  Given how the winter has gone, and what I see in the long term posts in this thread, I think I can come out early but am hoping for some assurance.  

 

Thoughts? Concerns?  If it helps, if there is an event after we come out of winter schedule, those who were on nights just go back to that shift for a day or so to address the storm.

 

Thanks!

[StretchCT]

Euro weeklies from yesterday

This is average unofficially

Edited February 28, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Central Park had 1.8" of snow bringing the total to 2.2.  The least snowiest season was 1972-73 with 2.8".  0z GFS was bare for snow through the 15th. EPS had some 1" opps for CP.

Technically, if CP doesn't record snowfall today, it will be the second least amount of snow in Met winter (Dec-Feb).  1997-98 had only .5" before a 5" storm in March.  edit 1918-19 had less too with a storm in March  so it's third.  The list below is to 1950

 

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Imagine on the 16th of March, parts of AL/GA/MS and LA get more snow than NYC does all season

Edited February 28, 2023 by StretchCT

[RobB]

As we get deeper into meteorological spring....

 

[Pghsnow]

Pittsburgh set a futility record for February. Only reported .2 inches of snow. The old record was .5 inch.

[MotownWX]

On 4/27/2022 at 5:17 PM, MotownWX said:

I mean, seasonal forecasts have gotten rather easy and predictable for the Great Lakes and upper Midwest:

• Warm, pleasant fall
• Mild, uneventful early winter
• Stormy and cold after mid-January
• Frequent cut-off lows and cold shots right through end of April.  

Easy peasy lemon squeezy. 

Hope everyone is well.  Been a lot of months since stopping by. 

Revisiting my post from April...

The change to stormy/cold happened later than usual.  But it's fundamentally still the same:  Mild early to mid-winter, big pattern flip late winter, wrecked spring. 

It's just gotten so predictable. 

Take care, all. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by MotownWX