Pghsnow Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 With the lag time in effects from a SSW your well into March if it is even aimed at North America vs Europe or Asia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 18 hours ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Seems to be a little hope on the horizon near the end of the GEFS/GEPS runs for the Ohio Valley/GLs Makes sense... Had a window of winter during the latter half of December...then a January thaw Had a window of winter during the latter part of January/early Feb...and now we'll be heading into a thaw If the pattern continues to repeat, I'd expect the latter half of Feb. & maybe early March to give us some winter weather...before maybe giving way to an early arrival to spring (for once) yeah I feel way less negative on this upcoming pattern than I did the early January one, I see the same things as you, potential fun times around here mid-late Feb again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Interesting track on the GFS for the storm on the 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2/3 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 On 2/1/2023 at 1:36 PM, StLweatherjunkie said: Seems like we're on our way back to the warm eastern CONUS GLC pattern we saw in January. EPS suggests a cutter Feb 8-10, possible east coast system Feb 11-13, then endless GLCs for the 3rd week of the month. The Feb 16-18 time frame looks like fun for the upper great lakes. A ~980 mb low near lower Michigan ... yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 (edited) On 2/2/2023 at 3:52 PM, MesoscaleBanding said: Seems to be a little hope on the horizon near the end of the GEFS/GEPS runs for the Ohio Valley/GLs Makes sense... Had a window of winter during the latter half of December...then a January thaw Had a window of winter during the latter part of January/early Feb...and now we'll be heading into a thaw If the pattern continues to repeat, I'd expect the latter half of Feb. & maybe early March to give us some winter weather...before maybe giving way to an early arrival to spring (for once) My biggest winter storms this season were on October 17-19 and December 22-24. I fully expect at least one more major storm UP here during the Feb 17-24 time frame. Perhaps April too? Roughly the 3rd (October and November) or 4th (September and December) week of each month had been the most winter UP here. January broke the mold without any cold weather until the 5th week. I'm not really sure what to make of January, but I tend to believe the 3rd week of February is going to be favorable for my area. Edited February 4, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2/4 0Z NAEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 2/4 12Z NAEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 12 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The Feb 16-18 time frame looks like fun for the upper great lakes. A ~980 mb low near lower Michigan ... yes please! Still looks like fun and I'm starting to get excited ... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2/5 0Z NAEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2/5 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I'll probably give the NAEFS post a break until I see some decent changes. LOL 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Hey. I just wanted to pop in here and say this winter has sucked and I hope we never see another one like it again. Thanks and bye. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 55 minutes ago, 1816 said: Hey. I just wanted to pop in here and say this winter has sucked and I hope we never see another one like it again. Thanks and bye. It's unfortunate being in a spot that benefits from a pattern that is crap for most on this forum. Hopefully next year is better for the eastern half, but we all know the west needs water and they get it at the expense of your winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NKYSnowLover Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, RobB said: I'll probably give the NAEFS post a break until I see some decent changes. LOL Summarization of the NAEFS for anyone east of the Mississippi (except for an occasional stretch of days) Edited February 6, 2023 by NKYSnowLover 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 10 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: It's unfortunate being in a spot that benefits from a pattern that is crap for most on this forum. Hopefully next year is better for the eastern half, but we all know the west needs water and they get it at the expense of your winter The bad new is we need probably ten years of this winter to fully replenish water reservoirs out west. I think the Great Salt Lake is a good example of how dire the situation is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 12 hours ago, NKYSnowLover said: Summarization of the NAEFS for anyone east of the Mississippi (except for an occasional stretch of days) Possibly the funniest thing I've ever seen posted on here. Thanks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 3 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: The bad new is we need probably ten years of this winter to fully replenish water reservoirs out west. I think the Great Salt Lake is a good example of how dire the situation is. The good news, if there is any, is this year has been an unexpected win for the west. Going into the triple-dip La Nina, everyone expected a pretty dry winter for California, yet they are well above average to date. I'm hopeful that we head into a productive El Nino this year and maybe the year after if we can get a double dip? Although that wouldn't be great for skiers in the mid-atlantic, it wouldn't be a death knell either. The water issues are not ending any time soon, especially with the explosive population growth of the region and demands that are being placed on the Colorado River. If we can get 3 years of above average moisture in a row, at least a dent would start to be made, though who knows how long that dent would last. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 4 hours ago, Al_Czervik said: The bad new is we need probably ten years of this winter to fully replenish water reservoirs out west. I think the Great Salt Lake is a good example of how dire the situation is. The Great Salt Lake and other western reservoirs are extremely likely to rebound this spring/summer as snow melts, can you at least agree that's a good thing? Aren't you happy about Detroit having a comparatively warm winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 59 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The Great Salt Lake and other western reservoirs are extremely likely to rebound this spring/summer as snow melts, can you at least agree that's a good thing? Aren't you happy about Detroit having a comparatively warm winter? Yes. I am extremely happy about my winter so far and did not mean to come off as I was complaining. I am even happier about the rain out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 (edited) Looks like we're making our full (very very fast) trek through phases 4-5-6 of the MJO the next 10 days. Then as we enter phases 7-8 we stall out, that's where I'll be waiting for another bout of winter. Crazy how fast we swing through 4-6 Edited February 6, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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