StormfanaticInd Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Probably need to make a thread for this weekend into Monday 👀 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Probably need to make a thread for this weekend into Monday 👀 With EAR on my side, I will go all in on the storm idea between the 2nd and 5th. I really like that time period as it is also pretty close to the period where I expect a transition. I will post Asia later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 23, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Psu1313 said: With EAR on my side, I will go all in on the storm idea between the 2nd and 5th. I really like that time period as it is also pretty close to the period where I expect a transition. I will post Asia later tonight. That’s the one I was looking at! 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Probably need to make a thread for this weekend into Monday 👀 I might have time tonight to make one.. definitely looks interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 👀 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 The GFS and Euro handle the storm differently East of Japan, but the general thought is there. What's also fun about this system is that we have the potential for interaction between jets. I expect there to be a lobe of the PV floating around at this point. It's a long way off and the models do not have the interaction currently, but I'll use the 500mb to show what I mean. All we can ask for at this point is something to track, and we finally have a few of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Tonight's 0z GFS was probably the best model run all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Only American models forecast MJO getting to phase 4. All the others go to COD from 3. And Euro products stay in phase 2-3 & don't get into COD until March. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Psu1313 said: The GFS and Euro handle the storm differently East of Japan, but the general thought is there. What's also fun about this system is that we have the potential for interaction between jets. I expect there to be a lobe of the PV floating around at this point. It's a long way off and the models do not have the interaction currently, but I'll use the 500mb to show what I mean. All we can ask for at this point is something to track, and we finally have a few of them. One can hope but honestly if we are not going to have a 50/50 or a west based -NAO i would want the weight of the cold across eastern Canada and cold semi retreating from our area. This would help squash the persistent Nova Scotia high with those anomalously warm SST we have over the east. That thing is killing us storm after storm nothing can set up shop near the 50/50 spot and a high slides right on in leaving us on the SW side of the high which is dominated by SE flow. I would say the first couple days need to be watched for a big system, maybe coastal like? If we are to get the cold in the east we need a big system. There could be a system at the end of January and another trailing not too far behind for the first couple days of February. The overall pattern is still rather transient but we will be getting ok ish cross-polar flow to help seed the cold. Im hopeful there is a chance to get an inch of snow this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: One can hope but honestly if we are not going to have a 50/50 or a west based -NAO i would want the weight of the cold across eastern Canada and cold semi retreating from our area. This would help squash the persistent Nova Scotia high with those anomalously warm SST we have over the east. That thing is killing us storm after storm nothing can set up shop near the 50/50 spot and a high slides right on in leaving us on the SW side of the high which is dominated by SE flow. I would say the first couple days need to be watched for a big system, maybe coastal like? If we are to get the cold in the east we need a big system. There could be a system at the end of January and another trailing not too far behind for the first couple days of February. The overall pattern is still rather transient but we will be getting ok ish cross-polar flow to help seed the cold. Im hopeful there is a chance to get an inch of snow this year! I agree with everything you stated, yet I believe after these storms, it is going to get difficult quick for non-snow inclined areas. That’s why I’m going all in now. Watch, there will be a monster in early March 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: I agree with everything you stated, yet I believe after these storms, it is going to get difficult quick for non-snow inclined areas. That’s why I’m going all in now. Watch, there will be a monster in early March 😛 Yea I mean I have seen it snow 18" on the first day of spring around here so it is not out of the question. Lets see what happens like I said I still expect at least one more storm to be cutting or apps runner (with more snow falling west that could be the better answer) after this Wednesday storm that will help make the push for cold to spread much further than just Montana and some of the upper Midwest. I would look around the 5th maybe as a timeframe to watch with cold retreating for the potential of a coastal? Interesting times ahead I just like an active storm track. Edited January 24, 2023 by so_whats_happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1/24 0Z NAEFSY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 24, 2023 34 minutes ago, RobB said: 1/24 0Z NAEFSY Should spell a baroclinic zone in the eastern CONUS. Likely won't be "stationary", but it never really is. Happy tracking. 🌨️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 🥶🥶 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, RobB said: 1/24 0Z NAEFSY @RobB I guess you can keep your job since you found the blue paint. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Canadian Days 7-14 average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Grace said: @RobB I guess you can keep your job since you found the blue paint. I finally found where it was stock piled 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 24, 2023 27 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: 🥶🥶 It's about time we see someone in the upper plains throwing mugs of hot water into the air. 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, RobB said: 1/24 0Z NAEFSY This pattern could lead us to a few nasty ice storms along the southern edge of the gradient. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Just now, MidwestWX said: This pattern could lead us to a few nasty ice storms along the southern edge of the gradient. Very true. Definitely something to watch for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted January 24, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, MaineJay said: It's about time we see someone in the upper plains throwing mugs of hot water into the air. I'll be sure to toss my coffee up while I launch the balloon. 😁 Edited January 24, 2023 by MidwestWX repetition 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 3 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: What could go wrong! Henry and his "Big Daddy" love. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 24, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 24, 2023 Would be an interesting feature if it's actually there when the time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Recently found this article and thought it has a lot of good information about how the PV, 50-50, and blocking comes together for mid Atlantic bomb snowstorms. https://www.abington.k12.pa.us/teachers/hurmms/Majorsnowstormchecklist_files/Stormchecklist.ppt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1/24 12Z NAEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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