Al_Czervik Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 On 10/23/2022 at 8:16 PM, Ingyball said: I actually don't thin this winter will only be front loaded assuming we see a rapid decay of La Nina like the seasonal models are hinting towards, If we move into neutral by February I think we'll see winter continue into March. A lot of it will be assisted by high latitude blocking and a weak polar vortex. I would hope that if we did have a front loaded winter the atmosphere would try to balance things out and warmup in Feb /Mar. I have zero confidence that this will occur. Looks more like a western ridge / eastern trough type of setup to me. This would be the worst possible scenario in terms of impacts economically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post StLweatherjunkie Posted October 25, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted October 25, 2022 Finally have the time to put a post out there even though I've been working on this for a while now. I started with the peak of other multi-winter ENSO events that switched phase the following year. I added 2014 and 2018, because they are a great analog for observed minimum Arctic Sea ice extent. Anyways, here's the analog blend I came up with for water year 2022 and how it compares to observations: Now using those analogs to project forward for the next water year (Oct - Sep) gives us high latitude blocking and a weak west Pacific jet stream. Limited signal across the CONUS implies lots of month-to-month variability with cold weather not being 'locked-in' even though some places should be getting quite a bit of snow. It's a similar look for just the cool season when snow is plausible. IMHO, this pattern would favor a more southern storm track: FWIW, here are the outgoing longwave radiation, 850 mb vector wind, temperature, and precipitation anomalies: I'm not sure how much stock I put in the monthly break-downs of analogs, but there seems to be a signal for Nov, Dec, and Mar being the best winter-weather wise across the MS/OHV while Jan-Mar could be great for the east coast. Also keep in mind that monthly boundaries are arbitrary so it's probably wise to assume +/- 1 month for any of the images below. I'm personally rooting for an early spring thaw then a late freeze to kill the blasted bugs, but I digress ... 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 26, 2022 Share Posted October 26, 2022 On 10/25/2022 at 5:05 PM, StLweatherjunkie said: Finally have the time to put a post out there even though I've been working on this for a while now. I started with the peak of other multi-winter ENSO events that switched phase the following year. I added 2014 and 2018, because they are a great analog for observed minimum Arctic Sea ice extent. Anyways, here's the analog blend I came up with for water year 2022 and how it compares to observations: Now using those analogs to project forward for the next water year (Oct - Sep) gives us high latitude blocking and a weak west Pacific jet stream. Limited signal across the CONUS implies lots of month-to-month variability with cold weather not being 'locked-in' even though some places should be getting quite a bit of snow. It's a similar look for just the cool season when snow is plausible. IMHO, this pattern would favor a more southern storm track: FWIW, here are the outgoing longwave radiation, 850 mb vector wind, temperature, and precipitation anomalies: I'm not sure how much stock I put in the monthly break-downs of analogs, but there seems to be a signal for Nov, Dec, and Mar being the best winter-weather wise across the MS/OHV while Jan-Mar could be great for the east coast. Also keep in mind that monthly boundaries are arbitrary so it's probably wise to assume +/- 1 month for any of the images below. I'm personally rooting for an early spring thaw then a late freeze to kill the blasted bugs, but I digress ... Great to see you post. Great post! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Popular Post ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 27, 2022 Meteorologist Popular Post Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Edited October 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 9 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 52 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Congratulations it's about damn time. You're gonna be a huge asset for them. Hope you love it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 27, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Congrats! Oh wow I think I know someone who works there I went to school with. Let me know if you meet a guy named Scott Kleebauer Edited October 27, 2022 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 13 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Congrats!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 27, 2022 Share Posted October 27, 2022 Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist MidwestWX Posted October 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 27, 2022 14 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Congratulations CV! Welcome aboard. I'm sure you'll be a wonderful fit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted October 27, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 27, 2022 Thank you all! 15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Congrats! Oh wow I think I know someone who works there I went to school with. Let me know if you meet a guy named Scott Kleebauer Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Thank you all! Will do. Only deal is you're still obligated to post here during severe weather events. 😀 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 28, 2022 Moderators Share Posted October 28, 2022 This is Norton (Boston) NWS webinar on winter weather season for 22-23. It’s focus obviously is Southern New England, but it does get into LaNina, MJO, NAO, and PNA if anyone needs a refresher. Just scrub through the local info. I love that they do it, even though technically I’m not in their forecast area. I look forward to @ClicheVortex2014 doing one of these, even if for TX. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted October 28, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted October 28, 2022 9 hours ago, Grace said: Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read: Glad to see I wasn't the only one seeing the similarities to last December just earlier. Fits the idea of STLweatherjunkies thoughts too of January being something of fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 On 10/27/2022 at 12:22 AM, ClicheVortex2014 said: Not to derail the thread, but with the activity level now, thought this was a good time to announce that I'm moving to Amarillo, Texas to join the crew at NWS Amarillo. I've been anxiously waiting for the final word, and I got it yesterday. Let me guess, the background check took two months to go through and you started wondering if they found something 😁 Big time congratulations! Get ready for a mountain of training on topics you already know a lot about, that is the government way. Amarillo should be a good office for a severe thunderstorm minded person like yourself. I hope there's good leadership in the office and enjoy the adventure. Is your entrance on duty before the end of the year? If at all possible, get on the job sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 20 hours ago, Grace said: Golden thread by Eric Webb. Certainly worth a click & read: Sure feels like the current pattern is going to keep amplifying until it becomes too unstable in 3ish weeks and the floodgates unleash. Relatively high arctic sea ice means there's plenty of cold getting bottled up while we enjoy this glorious fall weather. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Latest CFS Weeklies AO & NAO forecast As seen above changes begin middle of NOV. 500mb to end NOV through mid-DEC looks good on that update: Edited October 31, 2022 by Grace 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 I've been watching how the Bering Sea is modeled closely. If correct I think its going to be closer to DEC if not early DEC before cold. Most of NOV maybe similar to the next couple of weeks off & on. Seasonal models handling of NOV would seem to agree with this as well, & also MJO analogs. Hope I'm wrong & we have winter 3 weeks into NOV through JAN. However, smart money says that's too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, Grace said: I've been watching how the Bering Sea is modeled closely. If correct I think its going to be closer to DEC if not early DEC before cold. Most of NOV maybe similar to the next couple of weeks off & on. Seasonal models handling of NOV would seem to agree with this as well, & also MJO analogs. Hope I'm wrong & we have winter 3 weeks into NOV through JAN. However, smart money says that's too early. And let me add...its my opinion BSR correlation is not as high during some La Nina's. No research...just my observation. Maybe JD would know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 Well...a little change in 0z vs 12z for EPS 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Grace said: Well...a little change in 0z vs 12z for EPS 0z 12z The only big change is the Alaska block is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Iceresistance said: The only big change is the Alaska block is stronger Sw ridging & quiet a bit else. The GOA low at the end of the run leads to +PNA/-EPO. 0z 12z A little similarity to the La Nina phase 8 MJO plot but a little better if that were correct in EPS. It's LR so no gurantee it's correct. Edited November 2, 2022 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Majority of models taking MJO to phase 8 now. Phase 8 MJO for La Nina 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted November 3, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted November 3, 2022 (edited) On 11/1/2022 at 9:30 PM, Grace said: Majority of models taking MJO to phase 8 now. Phase 8 MJO for La Nina It does look like there may be a change up of pattern going into the 3rd week of November but the warm period we are experiencing probably wont go away anytime soon. Brief breaks with a cold front but right back into it with warmth. As for the MJO I would take a precautious approach to its forward speed. Models this time last year were constantly trying to push the wave into phase 8 but it took quite a bit of time (about a month) to migrate into and then through 7, this year seems to be developing in a fairly similar way so far. So I would hesitate to say we hit 8 in a weeks time but we shall see. Edited November 3, 2022 by so_whats_happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 4, 2022 15 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: It does look like there may be a change up of pattern going into the 3rd week of November but the warm period we are experiencing probably wont go away anytime soon. Brief breaks with a cold front but right back into it with warmth. As for the MJO I would take a precautious approach to its forward speed. Models this time last year were constantly trying to push the wave into phase 8 but it took quite a bit of time (about a month) to migrate into and then through 7, this year seems to be developing in a fairly similar way so far. So I would hesitate to say we hit 8 in a weeks time but we shall see. Looking at the Bering sea rule, it suggests a pattern of 3-4 days of ridging moving through the central-eastern CONUS, punctuated by 1-2 day cool downs. Much like you describe. Doesn't really look like any pattern that "locks in" as of yet BSR has done pretty well with the pattern so far, in my humble opinion I'll enjoy the near record warmth for November for now, been absolutely perfect weather for working outside. Plus, I haven't minded not really having to heat the house yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted November 4, 2022 Admin Share Posted November 4, 2022 BSR suggesting a sizeable ridge moving through the central to eastern CONUS roughly Thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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