Moderators StretchCT Posted September 21 Moderators Share Posted September 21 Current view of the Central American Gyre (CAG) which is expected to bring forth a landfalling hurricane or TS. Development may be noticeable on Tuesday per 12z GFS CMC develops it over the Yucatan 12z Icon takes a short developed system over the Yucatan As does Euro. AIFS nicks the Yucatan resulting in a stronger storm. Point is that there's a lot to sort out and a couple of days to get a better idea. However, there's not a lot of time from then the center enters the GOM to landfall. All models right now keep it moving which is a good thing. But if that center does form Tuesday and drifts north instead of over Yucatan, then we have a sizeable storm likely to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22 Moderators Share Posted September 22 18z GFS hates Florida. 2 sub 960 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22 Moderators Share Posted September 22 70% now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 22 Admin Share Posted September 22 35 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 70% now Will be interesting to watch this evolve. Hostile environment but a lot of fuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted Sunday at 08:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:29 AM Globals are coming towards the GFS it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Sunday at 10:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:11 AM IMHO what forms will seek the highest octane fuel (hottest water) and follow that up through the Yuc-uba channel. From there RI is somewhat likely if the SHR, at present, relaxes even somewhat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 02:53 PM Where it forms is still up in the air, but the track has consolidated with most having it form and taking it through the channel rather than forming over land and emerging in Campeche. CMC pops it a little later in the channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM (edited) Here's US landfall. It would be nice if they opened an Invest so we could get some hurricane models started on a threat that may be only 4 days away. Tampa to NOLA seem to be in range. So far GFS has lead on this, AIFS is a step behind and moving that way. Euro way behind but finally is in sync with the GFS. Canadian has been off with the early stages. ICON had been only a step behind the GFS but is a little wacky this morning. Would be a coup if its correct, also a very very bad storm. Keep in mind these globals don't specialize in strength and typically are underdone. So a GFS or ICON in the 940s is alarming. CMC has it making landfall this Thursday afternoon ICON significantly different than CMC with landfall on Sunday morning AIFS is Thursday evening. Euro is early Friday morning GFS Graphcast is Sat morning GFS is devastating on Thursday evening Edited Sunday at 03:11 PM by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 04:16 PM 12z GFS is in and not pretty. Winds seem low for 935mb at 97sus/113 gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Icon rejoined the crowd CMC same area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:30 PM Hoping it moves as fast as the models are indicating. Here in Orlando it'd come in Thursday afternoon and be gone by Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Author Admin Share Posted Sunday at 06:37 PM Looking at total precipitable water, circulation appears to be over land currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 06:52 PM 12z landfall map update - pretty tight this run NHC up to 80% now You can see it building. There could be a Pacific storm forming too and it's strangely going to move east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Sunday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:09 PM If that SHR relaxes, we might could be looking at a system approaching Michael (2018). The basin is scorching hot right now. If it holds, we still see a significant cyclone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Sunday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:17 PM POD posted earlier this afternoon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:19 PM (edited) 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: Here's US landfall. It would be nice if they opened an Invest so we could get some hurricane models started on a threat that may be only 4 days away. Tampa to NOLA seem to be in range. So far GFS has lead on this, AIFS is a step behind and moving that way. Euro way behind but finally is in sync with the GFS. Canadian has been off with the early stages. ICON had been only a step behind the GFS but is a little wacky this morning. Would be a coup if its correct, also a very very bad storm. Keep in mind these globals don't specialize in strength and typically are underdone. So a GFS or ICON in the 940s is alarming. CMC has it making landfall this Thursday afternoon ICON significantly different than CMC with landfall on Sunday morning AIFS is Thursday evening. Euro is early Friday morning GFS Graphcast is Sat morning GFS is devastating on Thursday evening Are you sure about that? ECMWF AI picked up on this potential at least a week ago, see my post from Sept 15 ... Isn't what I described exactly what's happening? Edited Sunday at 07:20 PM by StLweatherjunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM Admin Share Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM 2 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Are you sure about that? ECMWF AI picked up on this potential at least a week ago, see my post from Sept 15 ... Isn't what I described exactly what's happening? If this does become a substantial storm, the Euro will still hold the record as picking up the strongest storms 7-10 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:26 PM 97L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 12:36 AM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 12:36 AM GFS vs AIFS Spoiler Spoiler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 01:52 AM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 01:52 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted Monday at 11:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:08 AM Modeling still showing RI potential with 97L (H storm?) Comes out just W of Cuba mainland at 991 - then plummets down to 942 at Big Bend of FL on the 6z gfs (today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted Monday at 11:18 AM Author Admin Share Posted Monday at 11:18 AM 9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Modeling still showing RI potential with 97L (H storm?) Comes out just W of Cuba mainland at 991 - then plummets down to 942 at Big Bend of FL on the 6z gfs (today) I have found it interesting that this area has lower wind design standards than the rest of the Gulf Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 12:36 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 12:36 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 12:43 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 12:43 PM Hurricane models are going to town on this one. Thankfully its Big Bend area again for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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