LiveWire_13 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 OT but quick update. Baby no. 2 arrived safely without even a rain drop falling. He's sleeping... looking at this tropical forecast discussion with me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6 Moderators Share Posted September 6 3 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: OT but quick update. Baby no. 2 arrived safely without even a rain drop falling. He's sleeping... looking at this tropical forecast discussion with me. Fantastic news!!!! Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6 Moderators Share Posted September 6 Here's a look at 99L. While the winds are storm force, the structure isn't tropical so it's down to 0 chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 6 Moderators Share Posted September 6 (edited) ICON still hot on 90L. 12z and 18z. HMON puts out some winds and a low. HWRF ignores. HAFS A puts out hurricane strength winds HAFS B peaks here, barely 65kts Euro aIFS Edited September 6 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: OT but quick update. Baby no. 2 arrived safely without even a rain drop falling. He's sleeping... looking at this tropical forecast discussion with me. Congratulations! Never too early to get them started on weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 7 Admin Share Posted September 7 7 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: OT but quick update. Baby no. 2 arrived safely without even a rain drop falling. He's sleeping... looking at this tropical forecast discussion with me. That's awesome! Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7 Moderators Share Posted September 7 Platform is struggling today. MJO sliding onto our side for some models. Gulf disturbance up to 60%. GFS and EPS lining up again on an eastern threat - whether it's tropical is debatable as it's probably similar to what we are seeing offshore today. They both rotate this one around an upper low and bring on shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7 Moderators Share Posted September 7 99L headed to Canada. Looks like some swirl off NC/SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 7 Moderators Share Posted September 7 90 L to the north with 0 chances - actually they removed the hash completely. 91L to the south with 50/70 chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 8 Admin Share Posted September 8 @StretchCT Your commentary is always appreciated. Your posts are great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 I'll be kind of shocked if there's not a major late season hurricane. At least one. The heat had to reconcile and these storms are the mechanism. The sal and other factors prevented the epic season that was predicted so logic dictated the late season will be dangerous as a mofo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 On 8/29/2024 at 8:10 PM, StLweatherjunkie said: ECMWF AI model is trending towards an active second week of September in the Gulf ... I wouldn't bet against it Latest version of this model valid at the same time that intensifies as landfall approaches later in the model run I think it's safe to chalk this up as a win for long range day 10+ AI models and tropical threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1 hour ago, 1816 said: I'll be kind of shocked if there's not a major late season hurricane. At least one. The heat had to reconcile and these storms are the mechanism. The sal and other factors prevented the epic season that was predicted so logic dictated the late season will be dangerous as a mofo. Late season? We're in the heart of the season now and systems are simmerin' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 21 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Late season? We're in the heart of the season now and systems are simmerin' Well peak season is late season when it comes to hurricanes but you know what I mean 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 8 Moderators Share Posted September 8 Opening up a thread on PTC 6/91L as it seems pretty much a sure thing and its only 3 days from landfall. Must be waiting for more organization. Update out soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 9 Moderators Share Posted September 9 Invest 92L (60%) is currently near 40W. No invest for the one behind it which is at 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Invest 92L (60%) is currently near 40W. No invest for the one behind it which is at 70% If the one behind it has a better chance, why did they not create an invest for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM Moderators Share Posted Tuesday at 09:31 PM 93L with 80% chance. Looks pretty good so close to Africa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM Moderators Share Posted Tuesday at 09:32 PM 92 L down to 30%. Neat little low out in front of it at 53w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM We have TD 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Friday at 01:01 PM Moderators Share Posted Friday at 01:01 PM (edited) This hashed area has some interesting activities. GFS is bullish, the AIFS has development too. Not sure if its not tropical/sub/semi/hemi/extra/post but GFS has it hitting NC But the Euro EPS and op don't have it. Euro op has a low further out in time. The ICON has this offshore for the run and then deepening and sitting just offshore of OBX UKIE is weak into GA and CMC has nothing. Edited Friday at 01:44 PM by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Friday at 09:23 PM Moderators Share Posted Friday at 09:23 PM Bump that area to 40% now. Ukie, GFS and Euro all similar \ Icon further north and later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Friday at 09:29 PM Moderators Share Posted Friday at 09:29 PM There's an invest 94L out there in the 0% hash. Crazy if this went to cat three. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Saturday at 02:08 PM Moderators Share Posted Saturday at 02:08 PM 16 hours ago, StretchCT said: There's an invest 94L out there in the 0% hash. There was an invest94L... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM Moderators Share Posted Saturday at 02:15 PM The area off the Carolinas is up to 50%. Icon is running it up the Chesapeake GFS into SC Spoiler AIFS is with the ICON Spoiler NAM is over the ocean heading to NJ or LI Spoiler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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