Moderators StretchCT Posted August 30 Moderators Share Posted August 30 What is this sorcery that the 12z GFS and EPS both have the same outcome day 10-11 EPS takes over LI into New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 7 hours ago, StretchCT said: What is this sorcery that the 12z GFS and EPS both have the same outcome day 10-11 EPS takes over LI into New England If Mother Nature actually decides to put a 996 mb category 1 hurricane over Long Island on Sept. 13, I might rage quit and undo all of the climate change compensation in my life. My wife is pregnant with our second kid, and the due date is Sept. 12. Oh, hell no. Hell no. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 9 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: If Mother Nature actually decides to put a 996 mb category 1 hurricane over Long Island on Sept. 13, I might rage quit and undo all of the climate change compensation in my life. My wife is pregnant with our second kid, and the due date is Sept. 12. Oh, hell no. Hell no. Congratulations on your second kid. Hope he or she is born during great weather 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 16 hours ago, StretchCT said: What is this sorcery that the 12z GFS and EPS both have the same outcome day 10-11 EPS takes over LI into New England Models agreeing with each other? Is that allowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 9 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: If Mother Nature actually decides to put a 996 mb category 1 hurricane over Long Island on Sept. 13, I might rage quit and undo all of the climate change compensation in my life. My wife is pregnant with our second kid, and the due date is Sept. 12. Oh, hell no. Hell no. "We have a dire environmental situation that may impact everything as we know it" "Climate change?" "No, diaper change" 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 31 Share Posted August 31 Slow network on mobile right now. But GFS shows it to the east of LI on 9/7. Euro not showing that date for me. Euro AI barely shows any development https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024083106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_29.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31 Moderators Share Posted August 31 11 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said: My wife is pregnant with our second kid, and the due date is Sept. 12. Congrats! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 31 Moderators Share Posted August 31 Interesting feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 2 Moderators Share Posted September 2 Patience - ICON with 4 tropical and one hybrid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 It's HH again 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 28 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: It's HH again 🙂 HH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 2 Share Posted September 2 9 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said: HH? Happy Hour (GFS): When the 18z spits out laughably implausible solutions, suggesting its inebriation 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 3 Moderators Share Posted September 3 Interesting reason for lack of storms. And flooding rain in the Sahara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 4 Moderators Share Posted September 4 The MJO does not want to come over on our side to play. And when it does, it goes into hiding. Looking out to the the longer range, the only system that seems to form on both gfs and euro is this little one in the MDR. Run goes out to 9/19 and the GFS. has no crazy systems at the end of the run 6z gfs with a small 972mb L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 Now up to five areas Icon is the most aggressive and focuses on the two western areas combining into something substantial. The 0z GFS and Euro are still pretty quiet, though the area off the east coast has a number of systems developing, but are they tropical? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 5 Share Posted September 5 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Now up to five areas Icon is the most aggressive and focuses on the two western areas combining into something substantial. The 0z GFS and Euro are still pretty quiet, though the area off the east coast has a number of systems developing, but are they tropical? The more the merrier. Getting very active out there. Yesterday the L right of the coast of Africa there was going to be something and turn up and head north over Bermuda. But today, GFS says nah, going to dissipate as it crosses. Of course this can all change at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 (edited) Invest 99L is open. Its the area off the east coast. Still only 20% though. GFS has it mostly warm core. Euro continues it past where the GFS ends. GFS picks it up later as cold core. Edited September 5 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 Three interesting features. Over the Atlantic is getting sheared pretty badly. Off GA/SC might be forming a low. The TX low if it drifts south could develop. Radar presentation of the TX system looks like it's coming along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 30 percent on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 90L is initialized - storm off TX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 BTW - I don't usually comment on western Pacific storms, but this one's a beast and is going to leave a mark.Typhoon YAGI As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2024: Location: 19.3°N 114.1°E Maximum Winds: 120 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 933 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: N/A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 99L might find itself named soon. All the models have it at TS already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 5 Moderators Share Posted September 5 ascat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Lots of activity out there. NOAA thinks the one off the Yucatan Peninsula may gain traction. Right now GFS shows none of the below developing into anything serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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