Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Seems as if GFS and AIFS try to spin up a few TC's along 10-20N in the extended. Neither is showing as developing RN yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 (edited) HH GFS stall job at NC Coast Edited August 1 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger1989 Posted August 2 Share Posted August 2 On 8/1/2024 at 10:46 AM, StretchCT said: Invest 97L is underway. While this one seems certain to form, I'd prefer to wait until its PTC or TD to start a thread. Nothing like having a list of dead invest threads in the tropical section. I'll add to the comment above that the nhc is still saying 60% for formation Potential Tropical Cyclone Four has formed. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 2 Moderators Share Posted August 2 43 minutes ago, Roger1989 said: Potential Tropical Cyclone Four has formed. New thread for PTC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 7 Moderators Share Posted August 7 Some additional development likely in the next few weeks. Week two references this system seen on the Euro Week three probably references this system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 8 Moderators Share Posted August 8 Its rare I see these two line up like this at 240hr. Basically the same track. Euro at 966mb track in blue GFS at 979mb track in red 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 8 Moderators Share Posted August 8 I'll add the CMC too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted August 9 Share Posted August 9 18 hours ago, StretchCT said: I'll add the CMC too Agree, very rare those 3 agree that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 10 Moderators Share Posted August 10 They've already tagged 98L. Could be TS within 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 10 Moderators Share Posted August 10 GFS, Euro and CMC in agreement that this stays off the coast. There are a couple of frontal interactions needed to make this happen and an upper low/trough that enters late in the picture that can mess it up. But right now, seems to be a fish storm. One ensemble member didn't have a recurve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 10 Moderators Share Posted August 10 3 hours ago, StretchCT said: and an upper low/trough that enters late in the picture that can mess it up. This is what I was looking at. Shows up on the 12z gfs. This weak cut off upper low takes the storm to Maine/NS instead of driving it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 10 Moderators Share Posted August 10 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 11 Moderators Share Posted August 11 90% now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 57 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 90% now Not surprised that tropical systems are forming. Oceans these days are blazing hit, pure jet fuel for such storms. Would have to be some major sheer to keep them apart without land or other obstacles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: Ugh Obviously this is nothing more than a single run on a single model, but I'd like to know what is causing that left hook. Sandy made a turn like that into the NYC metro and despite not being a proper hurricane (with other components involved), we all know how that played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 11 Moderators Share Posted August 11 Have to watch for cut off upper lows and negative tilted troughs when it comes to left hooks. This doesn't look well organized. In NHC terms, shows some signs of organization. Some higher winds there not much circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 11 Moderators Share Posted August 11 Levi does a good job describing what has to happen for this to form. Very informative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 12 Moderators Share Posted August 12 PTC 5 now has its own thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 21 Moderators Share Posted August 21 Quiet for now. Some signs of development at the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 27 Moderators Share Posted August 27 Commercial break is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 28 Moderators Share Posted August 28 MJO not favorable for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29 Moderators Share Posted August 29 Models are trying for day 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 29 Moderators Share Posted August 29 This looks kinda familiar. GFS bottoms out at 962 mb as it passes/hits Tampa. 12z run struggles in the MDR but does pop one in the Central Atl. 12z Euro/EPS combo has a wave through the windwards developing in the Caribbean and curving north, similar to 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 ECMWF AI model is trending towards an active second week of September in the Gulf ... I wouldn't bet against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted August 30 Share Posted August 30 7 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: ECMWF AI model is trending towards an active second week of September in the Gulf ... I wouldn't bet against it GFS seems to be latching on to something next week. 18z ran up Mobile Bay and 06z has a strong system in W Louisiana. Euro runs a system ashore in the Yucatán in a similar timespan. We might have something to look at in the next 4-7 days potentially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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