Moderators StretchCT Posted July 29 Moderators Share Posted July 29 (edited) 50% chance now. GFS doesn't develop in today's 0z or 6z runs. Euro, CMC, ICON, JMA all still have it. 6z GFS Graphcast is on board. Which has me curious about the GFS reluctance. 6z ECMW AIFS has a twofer Euro ens members look good up to this point, then they go everywhere Edited July 29 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 Oh my at the 12z runs. Euro and GFS stall a cyclone at the coast. GFS at Gulf, Euro at Carolinas 😮 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Oh my at the 12z runs. Euro and GFS stall a cyclone at the coast. GFS at Gulf, Euro at Carolinas 😮 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 29 Moderators Share Posted July 29 Man the Euro is pretty adamant about this hitting the US East Coast. It's still raining on this frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 29 Share Posted July 29 The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance across the western tropical Atlantic with a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7-days. Many ensemble members of the GEFS and ECENS depict a recurving track near or off the U.S. East Coast late in week-1 into early week-2, although there are some outliers that enter the Gulf of Mexico. Given the current projection of the system recurving with many members remaining too far offshore for direct impacts, slight risks of heavy precipitation and high winds are designated only for the immediate East Coast for Aug 6-8, with any impacts dependent on how close the system gets to the coast. This system may also contribute to enhancing the northerly flow pattern and dry air advection across the eastern CONUS in week-2 further helping to moderate excessive heat. -- CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Snowman Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 I'll be monitoring this one. Got a vacation house in Ocracoke, NC for September. Doesn't take much to create havoc down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiveWire_13 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 (edited) Saw preliminary runs of the Euro and watched the cyclone near the eastern seaboard with other low pressure systems nearby. If any of that happens, never know how they'll interact. Of course, this is all playing out when I'm planning my toddler's birthday party. Just one more bit of stress, right? Edited July 30 by LiveWire_13 Fixed tense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 60% now per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 30 Moderators Share Posted July 30 Rundown of the GFS, various euros, CMC and UKMET. Solutions range from Houston to Big Bend to out to sea (ots). I think what's holding back the Euro is that it tries to organize over Florida. 7-30 video.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 43 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Rundown of the GFS, various euros, CMC and UKMET. Solutions range from Houston to Big Bend to out to sea (ots). I think what's holding back the Euro is that it tries to organize over Florida. 7-30 video.mp4 67.42 MB · 0 downloads So I see the Euro (ECMWF) is at odds with its younger brother (AIFS). Older doesn't show much of a formation of a tropical cyclone. AIFS shows a good formation. Definitely these two are like family, can't agree. GFS shows the cyclone forming, going through Texas into New Mexico. GFS must be the crazy uncle who is drunk and his 2 nephews (the Euros) can't agree on anything. Must make for a heck of a Thanksgiving with those 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 30 Moderators Share Posted July 30 6z aifs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 30 Share Posted July 30 Enough to thwart any development for now it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 30 Moderators Share Posted July 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 30 Moderators Share Posted July 30 EPS clustered decently until this frame, then they go everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 31 Moderators Share Posted July 31 Euro/EuroAI/GFS/ICON/CMC - all in big bend at some point, but beyond that, they diverge greatly. Ukie further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 31 Moderators Share Posted July 31 Euro ensemble not too impressive Graphcast with a little low in big bend FourCAST PANGU 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Moderators Share Posted August 1 Wow - GFS/UKIE combo seems to be the winner on this one. Not even GFS Graphcast had a storm hitting the gulf. NAVY is the only one this far east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Moderators Share Posted August 1 (edited) GFS Graphcast takes remnants just off the MA/NE As does AIFS Edited August 1 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Moderators Share Posted August 1 (edited) Invest 97L is underway. While this one seems certain to form, I'd prefer to wait until its PTC or TD to start a thread. Nothing like having a list of dead invest threads in the tropical section. I'll add to the comment above that the nhc is still saying 60% for formation Edited August 1 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ak9971 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 4 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Invest 97L is underway. While this one seems certain to form, I'd prefer to wait until its PTC or TD to start a thread. Nothing like having a list of dead invest threads in the tropical section. Definitely has my eye, hoping for a change in the models and we get an OTS trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 (edited) 3 hours ago, ak9971 said: Definitely has my eye, hoping for a change in the models and we get an OTS trend. I'd rather it get caught up in a nice mid-lat trough. It's not overly strong and we sure could use the rain. Edited August 1 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ Snowman Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Not liking the GFS and the recurve back out over the Atlantic, yikes!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted August 1 Moderators Share Posted August 1 32 minutes ago, NJ Snowman said: Not liking the GFS and the recurve back out over the Atlantic, yikes!!! CMC and 6z aifs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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