clm Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 On 6/28/2024 at 4:30 PM, StretchCT said: Ahh - you don't know that I bought a boat and its on a mooring in Long Island Sound. Which means you just put a target on us. 🤪 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 8 Moderators Share Posted July 8 Now that Beryl is wrapping up, looking ahead on the 0z runs of the EPS and GFS, nothing of note for next 15 days. Nothing exciting with the MJO either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 11 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Now that Beryl is wrapping up, looking ahead on the 0z runs of the EPS and GFS, nothing of note for next 15 days. Nothing exciting with the MJO either. GFS showing a lot of activity coming off the coast of Africa for the rest of this month but showing nothing developing. Just ordinary rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 10 Moderators Share Posted July 10 (edited) Finally put a hash out for this upper low that UTS had noted. Edited July 10 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 13 Moderators Share Posted July 13 This feature doesn't model well by NHC noted some pretty strong winds associated with it. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from N of Puerto Rico to central Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 23N between 63W and 70W. Recent scatterometer data measured winds to 40 kt within the strongest convection near 21N67W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 15 Moderators Share Posted July 15 A look at the Saharan Air Layer And mid level water vapor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 18 Moderators Share Posted July 18 Looking at the MJO swinging back into our development area near the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 18 Moderators Share Posted July 18 On 7/15/2024 at 8:53 AM, StretchCT said: A look at the Saharan Air Layer And mid level water vapor Still looking at dust and dry air over the Eastern Atl, but the Western Atl is moistening up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 18 Moderators Share Posted July 18 25 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Still looking at dust and dry air over the Eastern Atl, but the Western Atl is moistening up. Looking forward at humidity anomalies Today 30th. Granted as time goes out the models smooth things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buxtonian Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 (edited) So where is this hyperactive hurricane season?? I am bored! Edited July 18 by buxtonian 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 19 Share Posted July 19 15 hours ago, buxtonian said: So where is this hyperactive hurricane season?? I am bored! Plenty of activity coming off the coast of Africa, but nothing that will come about. Still early in the season, lots more time to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 23 Admin Share Posted July 23 On 6/28/2024 at 4:30 PM, StretchCT said: Ahh - you don't know that I bought a boat and its on a mooring in Long Island Sound. On 7/1/2024 at 8:51 AM, clm said: Which means you just put a target on us. 🤪 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted July 23 Admin Share Posted July 23 On 7/18/2024 at 7:00 PM, buxtonian said: So where is this hyperactive hurricane season?? I am bored! On 7/19/2024 at 10:26 AM, clm said: Plenty of activity coming off the coast of Africa, but nothing that will come about. Still early in the season, lots more time to go. You have all that dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - some say Sarahan Dust Layer (SDL) - which is going to temper things a bit till Augustish. Sit back... Stew is boiling. ACE and SSTs are dreadfully high this year. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 24 Moderators Share Posted July 24 (edited) Some chatter about things changing in August. MJO looks that way. And now the EPS is putting things together in a couple of runs Edited July 25 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 24 Moderators Share Posted July 24 (edited) Can add this one too. Edited July 24 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 24 Moderators Share Posted July 24 (edited) Looks like La Nina won't be in full swing until September. Edited July 24 by StretchCT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 24 Moderators Share Posted July 24 (edited) This is a new graphic to me, or I've just forgotten about it. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php Edited July 25 by StretchCT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted July 24 Share Posted July 24 On 7/23/2024 at 9:39 AM, Sentinel said: You have all that dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) - some say Sarahan Dust Layer (SDL) - which is going to temper things a bit till Augustish. Sit back... Stew is boiling. ACE and SSTs are dreadfully high this year. I have a feeling September is going to wear out the nhc 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 (edited) 🤔 I will say, considering that it tries to take the VortMax over Hispanola and Cuba AND still have it relatively intact to become an Atlantic Strait/GOM TC, seems a bit "against the grain". The graphic that StretchCt posted does indicate a Non Zero potential for the basin. Might be a good test for "the King" - to see if it's regained some of it's, seemingly lost luster, ability to sniff out the LR correctly. Edited July 26 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: 🤔 I will say, considering that it tries to take the VortMax over Hispanola and Cuba AND still have it relatively intact to become an Atlantic Strait/GOM TC, seems a bit "against the grain". The graphic that StretchCt posted does indicate a Non Zero potential for the basin. Might be a good test for "the King" - to see if it's regained some of it's, seemingly lost luster, ability to sniff out the LR correctly. NHC gives it a mere passing mention... For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will dominate the forecast waters through Sat, then will shift eastward ahead of a weak cold front moving off the Carolina coast. The front will stall of northeast Florida Sun, then dissipate Mon. The pattern will support fresh to strong E winds off Hispaniola through Sun, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere into Tue. Looking ahead, winds and seas may increase northeast of the Leeward Islands by late Tue associated with an approaching tropical wave. $$ Christensen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 GFS showing 2 potential, but too far out to tell. They just started forming near the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 26 Moderators Share Posted July 26 ECMWF - AIFS is also seeing something. CMC with a low in the gulf/campeche as does GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted July 27 Moderators Share Posted July 27 First run I've seen with all three euro models and the gfs working the same wave in a similar manner. 7-27 video.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 NHC gives out a Lemon Drop for potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Erunge now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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