Undertakerson2.0 Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 32 minutes ago, AceGikmo said: Milton just Category 5! I guess this isn't the forum for hurricane discussion lol. Any recommendations for places that people actually talk about this stuff? In the thread created for the storm? This is the pre-invest thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 17 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: In the thread created for the storm? This is the pre-invest thread. Pardon my stupidity. Didn't realize the top 3 threads were pinned so I just saw Helene at the top and assumed there wasn't anything for Milton 🤦♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 8 Moderators Share Posted October 8 20 hours ago, AceGikmo said: Pardon my stupidity. Didn't realize the top 3 threads were pinned so I just saw Helene at the top and assumed there wasn't anything for Milton 🤦♂️ Yeah, thanks for the reminder. I'll release Helene and pin Milt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 9 Moderators Share Posted October 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Which way is that predicted to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted October 10 Author Admin Share Posted October 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) Another CAG in 7-10days (850 wind vector anoms not as NWesterly as past week) gefs been looking fertile, could be similar evolution to last one (further south maybe) If continental wave state leaves a window for something to go warm core will have to see. Will watch nhc 7d Edited October 10 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Poco said: Another CAG in 7-10days (850 wind vector anoms not as NWesterly as past week) gefs been looking fertile, could be similar evolution to last one (further south maybe) If continental wave state leaves a window for something to go warm core will have to see. Will watch nhc 7d GTH outlook highlights “The MJO continues to be a significant player in the global tropics. The RMM index currently places the enhanced convective envelope over the Indian Ocean. Dynamical model MJO forecasts depict eastward propagation of the intraseasonal signal into the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific during the next several weeks, with a more suppressed convective pattern developing across North America in the wake of the MJO. Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is favored to be greatest over the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific during weeks 2 and 3. The suppressed phase of the MJO is depicted over the Americas during this period which would tend to inhibit TC formation, however potential destructive Kelvin wave interference leads to lingering chances for TC activity on either side of Central America throughout the forecast period.” Edited October 10 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comeauxn712 Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Guess this is where I hang out post-Milt! Next low down by the Caymans looks primed for round 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted October 11 Moderators Share Posted October 11 GFS CMC and Euro have this as an entity, very weak, making it across the MDR into or just north of the Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted Saturday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:24 PM Does not make me want to retire anywhere down there. Think if I ever retire and that is a huge IF, I will retire to NH or Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:13 PM (edited) 22 hours ago, StretchCT said: GFS CMC and Euro have this as an entity, very weak, making it across the MDR into or just north of the Islands This is wsw and slow to Intensify, euro op starts to deepen it after the leeward islands. With the large anticyclone in the Atlantic with the wsw heading and slow development…. def monitoring 12z euro op Edited Saturday at 07:14 PM by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:15 PM NHC 2pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted Sunday at 06:39 AM Admin Share Posted Sunday at 06:39 AM 11 hours ago, Poco said: This is wsw and slow to Intensify, euro op starts to deepen it after the leeward islands. With the large anticyclone in the Atlantic with the wsw heading and slow development…. def monitoring 12z euro op Something to watch. Currently, it would appear that it would be headed for Mexico if it were to develop due to the weather over the United States currenty. However, 240hrs is a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM Moderators Share Posted Sunday at 01:32 PM (edited) The chances on this (I94L) down to 30% but GFS, Euro, AIFS and ICON all have a weak to moderate storm by the windwards day 6. Hurricane models have a 6 hr frame where the wind is TS in the beginning of the run then they disappear it. Edited Sunday at 01:32 PM by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 02:30 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 02:30 PM Back to 50% Global models are in rare agreement as to the placement of the system. Timing is off by a day or so between them. GFS hustles it north of PR and sends into Hispaniola Euro, CMC and Icon just north of Hispaniola GEM ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 06:40 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 06:40 PM 60% now. Globals still in general agreement with a track to the north of PR west into Hispaniola or Cuba. hurricane models perking up too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Monday at 06:48 PM Moderators Share Posted Monday at 06:48 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM Moderators Share Posted Tuesday at 06:03 PM (edited) NHC still at 50% for the atlantic system, but the GFS/Euro have backed off. Icon/Ukie still on it. Hurricane models also backed off, but they haven't updated to 12z yet. Currently its a bit of a mess The western Caribbean system may still happen as NHC is at 20% for that one. It's a matter of where it forms as it could form on land, it could form just offshore and move inland or it could form further offshore develop into a tropical storm and move inland. Edited Tuesday at 06:12 PM by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Moderators Share Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM (edited) 94 is still churning away. OSCAT has some interesting values, Metop B and C show circulation but sub 30kt winds. Edited Wednesday at 03:23 PM by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM 35 minutes ago, StretchCT said: 94 is still churning away. OSCAT has some interesting values, Metop B and C show circulation but sub 30kt winds. Looks like it wants to try to develop but too busy on its cell phone to bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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