2024 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

0z Euro does some very interesting things with the erstwhile Tropical System ejecting from the GOM

In short, it seems to come up to FL and then it anchors a cold front - stalling said front's northern aspect and seemingly injecting some of its vortex max energy northward which spawns a surface low (somewhat akin to a Miller B enhancement) which then detaches from the front and stalls along the EC at the MidAtl and then into New England)

Quite fascinating 

Edited Monday at 09:17 AM by Undertakerson2.0

[clm]

Joyce going to peter out.  Kirk gaining steam.  

 

 

 

[StretchCT]

The area in the western caribbean is lowered to 40%.  There is still model support for development in the GOM but it's a weak storm and disorganized. 

Here's hr 144 on the models including the Ukie.

 

Here is hour 168

[StretchCT]

Not sure what will happen in GOM

 

[StretchCT]

Forecasting the GOM event is brutal compared to Kirk and what's behind it. 

Pretty solid signal from AIFS

ICON weak TS kinda wanders into SW FL

GFS Strung out

Euro - just a big mess of an area.

Even the CMC doesn't agree with itself

[StretchCT]

Still a mixed bag of models. CMC/Euro/Ukies don't organize a storm well enough to think it could be tropical storm level.

Icon still sticking with weak TS hitting S Florida

So does AIFS - note that these winds are NOT TS force, but recognize that ops don't usually get the strength of these systems right. So I'm 50/50 its over 40mph somewhere on these maps. 

GFS does have TS winds though

Regardless of storm, the conditions will result in 5-10" of rain over FL peninsula and rough seas in the GOM

[AceGikmo]

I have a trip planned to Sarasota next week so I've been keeping tabs on the GOM and the 12z GFS/CMC have a minor (12"!!) discrepancy for the 6 day rainfall outputs atm 😡 I'm a Mid-Atlantic winter weather guy so I have that general modeling reference point, but any pointers for how to weigh the sever weather potential for next week? Any advice would be greatly appreciated!

[StretchCT]

[StretchCT]

This GOM set up is super annoying me

[1816]

13 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This GOM set up is super annoying me

[StretchCT]

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This GOM set up is super annoying me

HAFS-B has TD 11 crossing over into Campeche and becoming a 110mph hurricane heading to Tampa.  

HAFS A does too but only as far as mid GOM at 126

 Seriously I think the earth has lost it. 

Edited yesterday at 12:36 AM by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

16 hours ago, StretchCT said:

This GOM set up is super annoying me

Now this from the GFS

[StretchCT]

Up to 70% now. 
 

1. Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend 
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward 
across the Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Florida Peninsula and 
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or 
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

12z Euro on it. 

I

[StretchCT]

Invest 92L is up for the GOM 

So far it’s messy but they haven’t all run yet

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

40/80 - lookin spunky on the overnighters

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

This could be a hurricane and maybe a major. Time will tell

[MesoscaleBanding]

Latest...not good

 

[StretchCT]

Lock it in - 90%

Hurricane models mostly have it as a major at one point. These are peak images. They also have it weakening as it approaches FL. It's a bit scary how much agreement there is except for B which strengthens it to 100mph just before landfall. 

  

Edited 29 minutes ago by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Tracks are still evolving.  The hurricane models are in the Tampa area, or just north. The deterministic models are south.

Ensembles put the whole peninsula in play - Euro and GFS

Edited 24 minutes ago by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Recon planning to head in tomorrow.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0530 PM EDT FRI 04 OCTOBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2024
         TCPOD NUMBER.....24-126 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
       A. 06/1200Z 
       B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
       C. 06/0800Z
       D. 22.0N 94.0W
       E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
       H. WRA ACTIVATION

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: 
       A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
          MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z.  (NO CHANGES)
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF
          OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING
          KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY.  (CHANGED)