2024 Tropical Atlantic Discussion and Pre-invest thread

[1816]

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

I have found it interesting that this area has lower wind design standards than the rest of the Gulf Coast. 

Occupational hazard that you know such things? LOL

That, to me, is quite odd given how often the Big Bend gets at least a glancing blow and many times are in the path of after landfall. 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

I suppose we need a dedicated post for this - to become Helene 

[LUCC]

Nam is right there too.

 

[StretchCT]

2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I suppose we need a dedicated post for this - to become Helene 

PTC 9

[StretchCT]

Still a bit off in the future.

 

[StretchCT]

98L looks pretty good for a depression or storm. Hard to find good wind data though.

 

 

[clm]

Oh boy, a double whammy a week later for the big bend area of FL

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

I wanna take all the whiners who've been ridiculing NOAA's Tropical Forecast, drag them to a computer screen and let them watch the activity NOW and what is being modeled to happen over the next 10 days.

And shove their faces into the images as if they were bad puppies who pooped on the LR carpet. 

 

[LiveWire_13]

20 hours ago, clm said:

Oh boy, a double whammy a week later for the big bend area of FL

 

Lots of energy for sure, but doesn't the GFS have a reputation for depicting end-of-the-world storms that never manifest? I will be sad if a massive hurricane slams the eastern seaboard next month, just in time for my birthday with a newborn at home. Hopefully these are just model fever dreams.

[clm]

30 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Lots of energy for sure, but doesn't the GFS have a reputation for depicting end-of-the-world storms that never manifest? I will be sad if a massive hurricane slams the eastern seaboard next month, just in time for my birthday with a newborn at home. Hopefully these are just model fever dreams.

True, though if I were in that area I wouldn't let my guard down after Helene goes away.

[StretchCT]

Isaac and Joyce are opened. Getting busy.  John in the EPAC is still alive.

[StretchCT]

Number of Category 4 and 5 storms to make landfall in the US by decade

1850's. 1

1860s  0

1870s  0

1880s  1

1890s. 2

1900s  1

1910s  3

1920s  2

1930s. 2

1940s. 4

1950s. 3

1960s 4

1970s  1

1980s. 1

1990s  1

2000s. 1

2010s. 3

2020s 5

[Undertakerson2.0]

21 hours ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Lots of energy for sure, but doesn't the GFS have a reputation for depicting end-of-the-world storms that never manifest? I will be sad if a massive hurricane slams the eastern seaboard next month, just in time for my birthday with a newborn at home. Hopefully these are just model fever dreams.

Quote

doesn't the GFS have a reputation for depicting end-of-the-world storms that never manifest?

No - not really. It sniffed out Helene well in advance - and we see what happened. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

[StretchCT]

Somethings brewing. They all have something in the GOM by Friday. 

And I'm adding the Euro op

Edited September 28 by StretchCT

[LiveWire_13]

18 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

No - not really. It sniffed out Helene well in advance - and we see what happened. 

Really thought I read that here or heard Dr. Cowan say it on a TT YT video. Either way, that would be awful for the folks down in FL/southeast CONUS if something else pops up so quickly. Not sure how you begin to deal with that if you're still sans power, clean water, sewage or shelter.

[Sentinel]

44 minutes ago, LiveWire_13 said:

Really thought I read that here or heard Dr. Cowan say it on a TT YT video. Either way, that would be awful for the folks down in FL/southeast CONUS if something else pops up so quickly. Not sure how you begin to deal with that if you're still sans power, clean water, sewage or shelter.

You don't. Crews aren't even able to address most of upstate SC and western NC yet. It may be days before restoration of utilities even begins in some of those areas. If something comes up for next weekend, even something weaker would be potentially devastating. 

[StretchCT]

Pretty active as it should be this time of year. The systems over the Atlantic are no threat at this point.  The red hash could be a pretty big storm later on per modeling as most have this storm developing. The yellow hash is more a wait and see. The orange hash is the most concerning.  All models still as of 0z have a system in the GOM. What happens to that system is still up in the air, but it's been on the radar now for a few days and yesterday every run of GFS,cMC, Euro, AIFS, ICON and shorter term Ukie and NAVY all had a low pressure in the GOM. 

Looking at the 0z models:  signal is still there, maybe not as strong. 

Euro develops it in the GOM on Friday and doesn't really do much with it.  It seems confused. Has it heading toward the Florida Strait on the following Wednesday.

AIFS brings some energy from off Honduras over the Yucatan into the GOM and develops it on Friday and hits Tampa area on Sunday with a weak TS

GFS has a low down by Panama that it lifts through the yuc channel like Helene and hits around Panama City FL on Sat night with a decent hurricane.

 CMC takes a CAGS system like Helene, up through the channel and then over to Ft Myers as a TS/Cat1

NAVY is similar to Euro as it takes a CAGS system from Honduras over Yucatan into GOM and parks it in Campeche on Sunday (end of run)

Ukie has a broad area of LP over the Yucatan with a surface low trying to form in Campeche but swings waves into the GOM. 

EPS has GOM loaded with low pressure, but not sure where

GFS ens have two areas to watch

Edited Sunday at 03:44 PM by StretchCT

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Pretty active as it should be this time of year. The systems over the Atlantic are no threat at this point.  The red hash could be a pretty big storm later on per modeling as most have this storm developing. The yellow hash is more a wait and see. The orange hash is the most concerning.  All models still as of 0z have a system in the GOM. What happens to that system is still up in the air, but it's been on the radar now for a few days and yesterday every run of GFS,cMC, Euro, AIFS, ICON and shorter term Ukie and NAVY all had a low pressure in the GOM. 

 

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

Looking at the 0z models:  signal is still there, maybe not as strong. 

Euro develops it in the GOM on Friday and doesn't really do much with it.  It seems confused. Has it heading toward the Florida Strait on the following Wednesday.

AIFS brings some energy from off Honduras over the Yucatan into the GOM and develops it on Friday and hits Tampa area on Sunday with a weak TS

GFS has a low down by Panama that it lifts through the yuc channel like Helene and hits around Panama City FL on Sat night with a decent hurricane.

 CMC takes a CAGS system like Helene, up through the channel and then over to Ft Myers as a TS/Cat1

NAVY is similar to Euro as it takes a CAGS system from Honduras over Yucatan into GOM and parks it in Campeche on Sunday (end of run)

Ukie has a broad area of LP over the Yucatan with a surface low trying to form in Campeche but swings waves into the GOM. 

EPS has GOM loaded with low pressure, but not sure where

GFS ens have two areas to watch

The other bad news is that those waters can recover surface heat far more swiftly than in the open Atl or even the greater Caribbean. 

12z GFS Op run - tries to stall a moderate TS at the Fl panhandle region - it misses the continental trough swinging by - remains somewhat cut off at that point even has a stall/loop aspect to it.  Edit - which continues as the whole thing falls to pieces as far as being strong - but continues to dump rain all over the Gulf coast region that lies E of MS (still on going at time stamp of the below image 😞 ) 

Edited Sunday at 04:35 PM by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

Let the "if only this was..." comments fly!! 

[1816]

8 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Let the "if only this was..." comments fly!! 

If only this was January, we'd get a Gulf storm like this with temps in the 40s followed by a week of no clouds and teens. 

[SnowloverSid]

On 9/23/2024 at 6:08 AM, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Modeling still showing RI potential with 97L (H storm?) 

Comes out just W of Cuba mainland at 991 - then plummets down to 942 at Big Bend of FL on the 6z gfs (today) 

 

For a while, I thought the acronym RI stood for Rhode Island rather than Rapid Intensification. I seldom post on the tropical threads because I know so few of the acronyms. Someone from the forums should give me a quiz on all the weather acronyms and terms—say, 50 questions at  two points each, plus one or two extra-credit questions such as “What was the number one pop/R&B/country/rock tune the day Snobal was born or the first time he ever threw in the proverbial towel.

[SnowloverSid]

1 hour ago, 1816 said:

If only this was January, we'd get a Gulf storm like this with temps in the 40s followed by a week of no clouds and teens. 

And here in St. Louis, I’d be getting a 34-degree rain because I am too far west of the cutter-ific storm, while my former upstate NY abode gets a 39-degree rain that is just enough to wash away the inch or two front- end thump.

[Undertakerson2.0]

0z Euro does some very interesting things with the erstwhile Tropical System ejecting from the GOM

In short, it seems to come up to FL and then it anchors a cold front - stalling said front's northern aspect and seemingly injecting some of its vortex max energy northward which spawns a surface low (somewhat akin to a Miller B enhancement) which then detaches from the front and stalls along the EC at the MidAtl and then into New England)

Quite fascinating 

 

Edited Monday at 09:07 AM by Undertakerson2.0