Moderators StretchCT Posted September 14 Moderators Share Posted September 14 Near term up to 40 percent. Long term still 50. I wish they'd invest it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Moderators Share Posted September 15 50/50 now. Icon has backed off the idea of bringing it further north. As has the AIFS. Battle now between NC and SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Moderators Share Posted September 15 Meanwhile longer term, there's a lot of support for a system coming due north out of the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted September 15 Admin Share Posted September 15 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Meanwhile longer term, there's a lot of support for a system coming due north out of the Caribbean *Remembers Sandy * 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 15 Moderators Share Posted September 15 (edited) Just now, StretchCT said: Some rumors circulating its PTC8 Just updated - will create thread for this one. Edited September 15 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 (edited) Florida should be on notice about the final week of the month ... seems to be increasing consistency for a storm approaching from the south/southwest. Appears to be originating from the Central American Gyre so I suspect it'll be a broad/moist/lopsided system that struggles to organize. At least I hope so. 😬 Edited September 16 by StLweatherjunkie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btbucks Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 The GFS is showing something big in the GOM at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 (edited) 18 hours ago, btbucks said: The GFS is showing something big in the GOM at this time. More importantly, the CMC sniffed it early as well. 00z run had it and so does 12z Edited September 17 by Undertakerson2.0 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Euro doesn't have a storm, per se - it does have a plethora of vort max energy bundles and to me, that spells that it will make it a TC in its next run (if the EENS have not already) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 18 Moderators Share Posted September 18 MJO finally favorable for development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 18 Moderators Share Posted September 18 Western Caribbean at a rare 60+ chance of development for week two. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted September 18 Social Media Crew Share Posted September 18 (edited) So.. I had to get out of hibernation at some point lol.. That 540 line's getting awful close! Nice reach on the 500 MB. Could be fun.. We'll see what happens. Looking forward to another year with you all! Edited September 18 by Penn State 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19 Moderators Share Posted September 19 Wow. This would suck. 0z gfs. Winds aren't in line with pressure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: Wow. This would suck. 0z gfs. Winds aren't in line with pressure. The CAG origins of this system strongly suggest this system will be broad and disorganized. There may be a system in the Eastern Pacific further complicating the environment. I wouldn't mind shutting off the GFS and using the computer resources for something else. When was the last time that it picked up on something first? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19 Moderators Share Posted September 19 5 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The CAG origins of this system strongly suggest this system will be broad and disorganized. There may be a system in the Eastern Pacific further complicating the environment. I wouldn't mind shutting off the GFS and using the computer resources for something else. When was the last time that it picked up on something first? To be honest, the European has been worse this season. The AIFS is pretty good and the ICON. I'd look at those. It's surprising to see a GFS run sub 930 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 19 Moderators Share Posted September 19 12z GFS with another sucky solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 (edited) I'll be at Disney from Sunday to next Saturday. Closely monitoring this to see how I'll need to adjust my plans. Pulling for the globals. Quite a discrepancy between the GEFS average and the GFS for Friday afternoon. Edited September 20 by Rush 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 4 hours ago, Rush said: I'll be at Disney from Sunday to next Saturday. Closely monitoring this to see how I'll need to adjust my plans. Pulling for the globals. Quite a discrepancy between the GEFS average and the GFS for Friday afternoon. I really hope you have a sunny or even just a cloudy and no rain time there. Have a good trip. Try to get Mickey and his pals to post here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 21 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: The CAG origins of this system strongly suggest this system will be broad and disorganized. There may be a system in the Eastern Pacific further complicating the environment. I wouldn't mind shutting off the GFS and using the computer resources for something else. When was the last time that it picked up on something first? The only thing I like about the GFS is it has the longest run (2 weeks and a couple of days) of any model that I know of. I know things can change at any time, but it gives me an idea on what potentially may lie ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20 Moderators Share Posted September 20 GFS with more reasonable storm this morning. AIFS also now on board CMC a little strung out. Euro non existent. Icon backed off a strong storm but still has one in the GOM Area is up to a 40% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20 Moderators Share Posted September 20 4 hours ago, StretchCT said: Euro non existent. Welcome to the party, Euro! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 20 Share Posted September 20 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: Welcome to the party, Euro! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Ready to pull out voodoo dolls if that is what it takes for this to happen. We NEED the rain pretty badly, after all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted September 21 Share Posted September 21 Me every day. 0z: Should be safe 6z: Uh oh further east. 12z: Looks fine 18z: Oh god its hitting Florida. Repeat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 21 Moderators Share Posted September 21 Interesting feature in the Atlantic aka 96L 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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