RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Check the beautiful trough we get the day after the storm on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebigo Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Latest GYX discussion below. Found the bolded sentence interesting. Always been my suspicion in NNE this time of year but never seen it mentioned. As this system approaches, precipitation is expected to overspread the region Thursday night, with latest model guidance suggesting mainly after midnight into early Friday morning. Temperature profiles should be cold enough to support snow initially, except maybe more of rain/snow mix getting closer to the coast and southern NH. Models are then advertising a slight warming trend Friday morning and afternoon as low pressure begins to develop near Long Island. This will potentially be enough to allow a gradual switch to rain or rain/snow mix for southern areas and toward foothills while remaining mostly snow to the north. However, there remains uncertainty on how far this rain/snow line makes it as models sometimes tend to not be cold enough. Once the weak low begins to close off over the Gulf of Maine, colder air getting wrapped in from the north could bring the rain/snow line back farther south as precipitations tapers off Friday evening into Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, thebigo said: Latest GYX discussion below. Found the bolded sentence interesting. Always been my suspicion in NNE this time of year but never seen it mentioned. As this system approaches, precipitation is expected to overspread the region Thursday night, with latest model guidance suggesting mainly after midnight into early Friday morning. Temperature profiles should be cold enough to support snow initially, except maybe more of rain/snow mix getting closer to the coast and southern NH. Models are then advertising a slight warming trend Friday morning and afternoon as low pressure begins to develop near Long Island. This will potentially be enough to allow a gradual switch to rain or rain/snow mix for southern areas and toward foothills while remaining mostly snow to the north. However, there remains uncertainty on how far this rain/snow line makes it as models sometimes tend to not be cold enough. Once the weak low begins to close off over the Gulf of Maine, colder air getting wrapped in from the north could bring the rain/snow line back farther south as precipitations tapers off Friday evening into Friday night. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Check the beautiful trough we get the day after the storm on Saturday. Troughs, shortwaves, long waves, do any matter when the damn PAC just bullies everything around it anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 To further the mood in the Mud Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Congrats Maine! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 3 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Check the beautiful trough we get the day after the storm on Saturday. yeah - just shows to go how close a thing this potential actually is. Damn sliding board ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 2 minutes ago, LUCC said: Congrats Maine! They need it….for once 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 4 hours ago, TLChip said: Sadly we’re doing the best out of the East for snowfall this year 🤣 Weather World, last night's show, mentioned that Allentown Airport is the ONLY official NWS reporting station "in the entire East Coast" to have observed snow totals above their seasonal average. At 2:44 mark https://weatherworld.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/wxreview.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: To further the mood in the Mud Atlantic. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 21 Author Admin Share Posted February 21 9 hours ago, Chris2333 said: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Well if anything it looks more disorganized but thats just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 10 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: yeah - just shows to go how close a thing this potential actually is. Damn sliding board ridges. And well, if we had an established well you know- NNAAOO . Just will take my chances any day with that in winter and nuttin else. I literally can’t remember when we had that as the prevailing theme . They park their big fat butts. They wane, pull out some, then reestablish. Phases easier, and if we miss one, the next vort works. And storms crawl. Plus clippers. At least that’s what the history books say; cuz i can’t remember last time we had a winter dominated by Neg Nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: And well, if we had an established well you know- NNAAOO . Just will take my chances any day with that in winter and nuttin else. I literally can’t remember when we had that as the prevailing theme . They park their big fat butts. They wane, pull out some, then reestablish. Phases easier, and if we miss one, the next vort works. And storms crawl. Plus clippers. At least that’s what the history books say; cuz i can’t remember last time we had a winter dominated by Neg Nao. Source: CPC For example, the negative phase of the NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. No wonder I believe "it snowed a lot more when I was a kid" More recently, it seems like 1996 - from the same source: An abrupt transition to recurring positive phases of the NAO then occurred during the 1979/80 winter, with the atmosphere remaining locked into this mode through the 1994/95 winter season. During this 15-year interval, a substantial negative phase of the pattern appeared only twice, in the winters of 1984/85 and 1985/ 86. However, November 1995 - February 1996 (NDJF 95/96) was characterized by a return to the strong negative phase of the NAO. And then, one of the most heralded winters of all time in the East: The winter season of 2009/10 was one of the coldest and snowiest in central North America and northwestern Europe for decades and it was suggested that this was a result of the extremely negative phase of the NAO https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL046786 I am still looking for a year, since 2010, that was dominated by NAO-. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 well there may be some light snow in our mountains per Sterling . Colder on Sat. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday acts as a transition in the pattern as temperatures turn milder, but with increasing clouds and rain chances. This is all in response to increasing warm advection ahead of the next weather maker. On Thursday morning, this cold front is forecast to be located near the Mississippi River. As this system presses eastward, some warm advection aided rain showers develop across the Alleghenies. The threat really does not expand toward the I-95 corridor until Thursday evening through the first half of Friday. Given how moisture starved this disturbance is, total rainfall amounts only amount to 0.10-0.25 inches, locally up to 0.25-0.75 inches along the Allegheny Front. This includes the period of upslope enhancements on the backside of this system. Any wintry component for the Alleghenies does not kick in until Friday evening as colder air spills in from the northwest. Most of the mountain range should see light snow accumulations into the overnight hours. Storm total snow amounts should range from a trace up to 1 inch near the higher peaks. Looking at the temperature side of the picture, Thursday and Friday will provide the mildest day of the work week. Expected high temperatures cap out in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. As the cold front does not push through until Friday morning, overnight lows Thursday night will be very mild. Most locations see a forecast in the low/mid 40s with mid/upper 30s for the mountain locales. Behind the exiting cold front, west- northwesterly winds may become gusty at times. Afternoon gusts up to 20 to 25 mph are possible, locally up to 30 to 40 mph for the higher terrain. Northwesterly breezes may persist into the night which would make for a chilly night as lows fall back into the 20s to low 30s again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The back side of the upper trough that drove the late-week system will push through on Saturday, which could lead to a few lingering upslope snow showers along and west of the Allegheny Front, mainly early in the morning. For the rest of Saturday, expect a significant cooldown area-wide. A much colder air mass will be in place with highs only in the low 40s (20s-low 30s in the mountains). Also, will have some wind around as gusty NW flow kicks in behind the fropa. This will make it feel much cooler as winds will gust in the 20-30 mph range. High pressure moves offshore on Sunday into Monday, turning winds out of the south and leading to a big warmup into the low 50s or so. This warming trend will continue into Monday as well, with highs reaching the low 60s. A piece of upper-level energy may pass close enough to the region Monday to bring some rain to the northern tier and/or some upslope rain showers along the Allegheny Front. By Tuesday, we could see the beginnings of our next impactful weather system. It is at the tail end of the forecast at this time, so certainty is very low in regards to potential impacts from this system. But expect unsettled weather to begin around Tuesday of next week with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s and gusty southerly flow ahead of a potential frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 21 Author Admin Share Posted February 21 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Source: CPC For example, the negative phase of the NAO dominated the circulation from the mid-1950's through the 1978/79 winter. No wonder I believe "it snowed a lot more when I was a kid" More recently, it seems like 1996 - from the same source: An abrupt transition to recurring positive phases of the NAO then occurred during the 1979/80 winter, with the atmosphere remaining locked into this mode through the 1994/95 winter season. During this 15-year interval, a substantial negative phase of the pattern appeared only twice, in the winters of 1984/85 and 1985/ 86. However, November 1995 - February 1996 (NDJF 95/96) was characterized by a return to the strong negative phase of the NAO. And then, one of the most heralded winters of all time in the East: The winter season of 2009/10 was one of the coldest and snowiest in central North America and northwestern Europe for decades and it was suggested that this was a result of the extremely negative phase of the NAO https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL046786 I am still looking for a year, since 2010, that was dominated by NAO-. My location makes me not so much care about the NAO. I'm a part of the +PNA -EPO cult. 2009-10 one of the worst winters ever up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 To get back on track here -- It's not like there will be NO snow around. It really was a close deal that we'd get some kind of winter event. I suppose you could say it's not quite "over" yet. Simply not looking to be any big whoop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) small reminder of how much things can change in 24hrs take a look inland runner changes to a 993mb prog on the water Extrap this..... this is not CPR for the system just fun tracking the evolution ATM carry on-dm Edited February 21 by Doorman 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 That's a rough GFS complete run for snow totals in the NE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Heck, that's a horrible run for snow lovers for the entire eastern half of the US, the West is taking all our snow!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, MaineJay said: My location makes me not so much care about the NAO. I'm a part of the +PNA -EPO cult. 2009-10 one of the worst winters ever up here. -4 That is so odd b/c not only the NAO went Neg. So too did the AO - a sustained -4 to -6 Std Dev as I recall. There must have been warmer antecedent period because it was particularly deep Neg AO and NAO from last week of Jan to Early March. Quote 7] The winter (DJF) AO of 2009–2010 was the lowest observed since at least 1950, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) Still a NE Ski Resort favored snow map on GFS Edited February 21 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 LWX has no goo news for snow lovers and may not even be much rain here in the southern mid Atlantic. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... What remains of the frontal showers will press eastward across the area on Friday morning. In response to the frontal passage, winds are forecast to shift over to west-northwesterly. Afternoon gusts could near 20 to 25 mph, locally up to around 25 to 35 mph over mountain locales. A downslope component to the winds should actually make for a warm late February day. Forecast highs rise into the mid 50s to low 60s which is around 8 to 12 degrees above climatology. This mild day will be accompanied by a mix of clouds and sun. Any rain shower activity comes to an end in far southern Maryland by the late afternoon to near sunset. The focus then shifts over to the Alleghenies where an upslope flow regime will promote some snow shower development Friday evening and into the night. Forecast snow amounts should range from a trace up to 0.5 inches, with perhaps near an inch across the Allegheny ridgetops. Overnight temperatures range from the low/mid 20s across the higher terrain to upper 20s to mid 30s elsewhere. In the wake of the trough passage, cold advection begins to take effect on Saturday which brings temperatures back down into the upper 30s to 40s. Brisk northwesterly winds may bring gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. This brings wind chills down into the mid 20s to 30s. For mountain locations, it will be a different story as it will feel more like the single digits to teens on Saturday afternoon. Depending on the degree of moisture left, there could be some snow shower development along the Allegheny Front. Any such development should wane by nightfall. Seasonably chilly conditions are likely overnight with low temperatures in the mid/upper teens across the mountains and across the Shenandoah Valley. All other locations are confined to the low/mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 For viewing pleasure or displeasur 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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