Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 AFDCTP All medium range guidance indicates a deepening upper level trough and associated cold front will approach from the W Grt Lks late next week. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of the front is most likely to result in a mild and possibly showery Thursday. Earlier guidance indicated potential phasing of the upstream trough with a weak southern stream shortwave, resulting in a deepening wave on the front and a rain to snow event for PA as the deepening low tracked south of the state Thursday night. However, latest EPS and GEFS are slower with the phasing. This scenario leans toward an all rain event with a weaker southern stream low tracking over or just south of PA Thursday night into early Friday. There remains plenty of uncertainty inherent in a day 5/6 forecast. What appears more certain is that we will see blustery and colder weather arriving by Friday PM as the upper trough swings across the region and a deepening low tracks east of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 LWX agrees thi UTS post . && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Seasonable and dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows in the lower to middle 30s. An upper disturbance will approach the mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and overspread rainfall from the mountains to the bay Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs Thursday in the 50s to near 60. Temperatures will be a little cooler on Friday given a passing front, a northwest wind, and cooler air. Highs Friday mainly lower 50s around midday but likely falling during the afternoon into Friday night. There could be some lingering upslope rain or snow showers in the mountains Friday night into Saturday with a west to northwest flow and building high pressure. Lows Friday night should be noticeably colder, as well as Saturday`s high temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Mt Holly basically the same.. 😎 Text Products for AFD Issued by PHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 1 hour ago, geeter1 said: Mt Holly basically the same.. 😎 Text Products for AFD Issued by PHI.html 28.83 kB · 10 downloads Ha ha ha - they said "antecedent" 😉 Quote With the antecedent warming trend, this event currently appears to be a mainly rain event for our area with little potential for wintry precipitation outside of the southern Poconos. Edited February 18 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) Well - at least it tried... Edited February 18 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Slow the southern piece a bit more and drop the trough 500mi S and more people are happy (and I am not happy) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 18 Author Admin Share Posted February 18 Watching the piece in the Northwest territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Slow the southern piece a bit more and drop the trough 500mi S and more people are happy (and I am not happy) 500 miles shift for the gfs with 5 days left? heck it can change that much in 1 model cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, kdskidoo said: 500 miles shift for the gfs with 5 days left? heck it can change that much in 1 model cycle. And back again - on the Op runs nearly anything can happen at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) Also tried Congrats NNE. Edited February 18 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 4 hours ago, Indygirl said: Hello Doorman! 🙂 Yeah, I’ve “crossed over to the dark side” to check out what you all got goin on next weekend lol!! (J/k haha!!) Do you think our Ohio valley will get in on this storm at all? We just had our only snow of the year on Friday and it was a good one! But I’m hoping for one more, please ! 🙂 hiya IG hope you doin well 🤖 When we get better samples ingested into the mix.....we shall see Long range casting is a fine line between love and hate!!!! will track it incognito until we get a better buzz going best-DM Edited February 18 by Doorman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 For fun and games.... 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GEM... 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, Doorman said: hiya IG hope you doin well 🤖 When we get better samples ingested in the mix.....we will see Long range casting is a fine line between love and hate!!!! We will track incognito until we get a better buzz going best-DM Incognito? We've come to know and love you just the way you are. No need to take on the guise of anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Take away, as alluded to by the others, large ULL which spin off pieces of vort energy are not easily handled by the operational models - not for any run to run major consistency. The idea of a storm is well established. The particulars are not nearly so. It's not a lock in any direction - yet certain things MUST transpire for this to be white winter storm for the majority of this region (esp for the MidAtl). Those things CAN happen and that is why we'll watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, geeter1 said: GEM... 😎 That is not this system though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 @Undertakerson2.0, It's for the 27th. I would not dare to start a thread. LOL 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, geeter1 said: @Undertakerson2.0, It's for the 27th. I would not dare to start a thread. LOL 😎 Cant be any worse than when I start them LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) From our friends at State College... 😎 Edited February 18 by geeter1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 30 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Incognito? We've come to know and love you just the way you are. No need to take on the guise of anyone else. I just wanted to play ZOLTAR the map-caster on this one brother LMFAO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 4 minutes ago, Doorman said: I just wanted to play ZOLTAR the map-caster on this one brother LMFAO A most excellent tack, mon frere. Quite apropos. Jeux sans frontieres! Or, as some might say - hoist that rag. 😉 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The mojo and a few of the tele’s for this time frame have gone off the rails from their original look in the long rangers, but it is obvious why the long range models luved this period . Geez. And, oh yea , the departing cold thang. Some of the best biggins in my memory happened then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: The mojo and a few of the tele’s for this time frame have gone off the rails from their original look in the long rangers, but it is obvious why the long range models luved this period . Geez. And, oh yea , the departing cold thang. Some of the best biggins in my memory happened then. "Some of the best biggins in my memory happened then." Pffft, if anything at all like mine - your memory ain't what it once was. So there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: "Some of the best biggins in my memory happened then." Pffft, if anything at all like mine - your memory ain't what it once was. So there's that. That’s one thing that isn’t gone yet here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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