Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Too FN close for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Too FN close for my liking WR structure a bit neutral - best to be pos tilted - yet looks to be completely workable to allow more than a handshake (btwn the jets) over the East. Once it catches, at or above M Vineyard, it has a decided winter side Yep - waaay too close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: WR structure a bit neutral - best to be pos tilted - yet looks to be completely workable to allow more than a handshake (btwn the jets) over the East. Once it catches, at or above M Vineyard, it has a decided winter side Yep - waaay too close. I wouldn't be too worried if I was you - everything about the ridge structure out west makes me think trough axis will be too far east. (and my rooting interests are the opposite of yours so I'll gladly lend my snow repelling protection to your desires) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, AceGikmo said: I wouldn't be too worried if I was you - everything about the ridge structure out west makes me think trough axis will be too far east. (and my rooting interests are the opposite of yours so I'll gladly lend my snow repelling protection to your desires) I'm kind of trying to whistle past the graveyard, as it were. Historically, strong Ninos that start warm end up with some sort of event of notoriety - NESIS level kind of thing. I'm hoping we don't get to go there though my actual discussion with others from back in Dec. was that there is always that prospect lurking. I thought with MJO collapse, it would hold off any notion of the Big-Un coming around. I still hope to be very right that it won't do it - these ENS runs make me very much less sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/snow_probhazards_d8_14_contours.png SOUTH JERSEY SCREW ZONE 🤏 Edited February 16 by Doorman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Looks like more Sakrete like our storm earlier this week -- at best Edited February 16 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 16 Author Admin Share Posted February 16 Ensembles with spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Well according to our local NBC morning met there are no more chances for snow in Feb. At least down my way. GFS says there is a storm.. of course this will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 57 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Well according to our local NBC morning met there are no more chances for snow in Feb. At least down my way. GFS says there is a storm.. of course this will change. Yeah - own local Met clowned a similar comment - "those who like snow will be disappointed, after this I don't see any chances for snow anytime soon". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 0Z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Wtkidz said: Well according to our local NBC morning met there are no more chances for snow in Feb. At least down my way. GFS says there is a storm.. of course this will change. Big change at 6Z compared to 0Z. Trending in the right direction if you want ❄️ Here is what it showed then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS dumps all over NY state and New England on 12z Very disjointed though - extremely odd evolution. Still gets to the same place in the end somehow. Suspect that the GFS is doing a timing correction - it had been pretty progressive compared to Euro slower (but warmer). This run is likely indicative of it being caught betwixt and between the faster and a slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) EPS and GEFS, still have a large spread on mslps, both seem progressive and flat. Lots of moving parts in and ahead of this threat. Edited February 16 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) @Undertakerson2.0 hate to prolong your angst towards this timeframe but... Edited February 16 by AceGikmo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) Verbatim li goes from light rain/drizzle, to a wall of heavy snow. 0 in-between Edited February 16 by marathongoalie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, AceGikmo said: @Undertakerson2.0 hate to prolong your angst towards this timeframe but... Holy sheets and pillow cases! Could it be a Shrine-worthy event? Not verbatim but wowza close to NESIS stuff right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Holy sheets and pillow cases! Could it be a Shrine-worthy event? Not verbatim but wowza close to NESIS stuff right there Nice look this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Rickrd said: Nice look this far out. And not outside of medium range either - many fantasy range of 190+ have been similar in the past. Ensembles like to have some true beasts in the set. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Sadly, JD's organic site shows a big-un likely after this one too. So if this don't work we may still have more winter to deal with I find that damn groundhog and giving it a .223 surprise 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 (edited) whoa Edited February 16 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Sadly, JD's organic site shows a big-un likely after this one too. So if this don't work we may still have more winter to deal with I find that damn groundhog and giving it a .223 surprise I read your post wrong... 🙂 I initially read as big unlikely.... meaning no chances down the road.. I want more chances and winter to deal with.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 16 Moderators Share Posted February 16 (edited) Edited February 16 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 16 Author Admin Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 minutes ago, StretchCT said: whoa That would definitely leave a mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Looks like the ULL approaching the west coast is slowing on the ensembles... allows for slightly better ridging out west and the corresponding potential for a better trough axis 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now