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February 22-25, 2024 | Winter Storm Speculation


MaineJay

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Sterling talks about snow showers. 
 

‘the mountains of course. 
 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Favorable upslope flow persists into the morning hours with
additional light snow for the Alleghenies. Storm total snow
amounts will likely range from a trace to an inch. Meanwhile, a
formidable shortwave trough is slated to track from the lower
Ohio Valley over to the Carolinas on Saturday. Ascent ahead of
these height falls may spread some light to moderate
precipitation across the Potomac Highlands down toward I-64.
This signal continues in a slew of the reliable numerical
weather models. Moisture is somewhat sparse, but ample dynamics
should help make up for some of this deficiency. Light snow
amounts are possible, with the highest amounts likely to be
over the central Blue Ridge where 1 to 2 inches is expected
through Saturday evening. Elsewhere, a subtle wave tracking
along the Mason-Dixon Line early Saturday morning could spread
some snowflakes for areas north of I-70. This would largely be
from the pre-dawn hours toward the late morning.

 

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Just now, MaineJay said:

31.6° with some light snizzle falling. You could call it a dusting so far.

Radar looks better than the ground truth, at least at my place.

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-GYX-N0B-20240223-1144-24-100.thumb.gif.1f98c20a3ec68475b70b44a30da8a3b3.gif

Go Jay go…… get that snizzle. 

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2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

I'll be up to and through coal country today on my way to Mauch Chunk and White Haven, to visit with the "old folks". I'm very glad to not have to put off the trip due to weather. 

Beautiful there. Our popular spot to visit in the Poconos. 

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Well, in the end this storm would have been ado about nothing here, regardless of the lack of temps. The “snow capital of the East Coast” only received .04 , according to ABE Airport, and highest amount E PA was .17 in Scranton, noting that many locals always feel their rain and snow amounts are usually too low. The look on the radar loop seems to indicate that is too low. I do think it would help if they kept the bucket out away from any overhangs 👀👀

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13 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said:

Well, in the end this storm would have been ado about nothing here, regardless of the lack of temps. The “snow capital of the East Coast” only received .04 , according to ABE Airport, and highest amount E PA was .17 in Scranton, noting that many locals always feel their rain and snow amounts are usually too low. The look on the radar loop seems to indicate that is too low. I do think it would help if they kept the bucket out away from any overhangs 👀👀

I received 0.21" of rain in southern Lancaster County. It ate away pretty good at the remaining snowpack. I live in the woods so I hold on to snow for quite awhile typically.

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Just an fyi.

lwx afd

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Shortwave low pressure continues to lift north and east through
eastern PA this morning with its associated cold front sagging
southward into central VA. Light shower activity continues to
accompany this boundary mainly across northeast MD this morning.
Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail with thickening cloud cover
as an additional shortwave low pressure system approaches from
the Ohio River Valley. This low pressure system will ride along
the slow moving cold front into southwest and central VA this
morning and into the afternoon hours. Accumulating snow is
possible along the Alleghenies, portions of the Potomac
Highlands, and central Blue Ridge/Shenandoah Valley. Hi-res
deterministic/ensemble guidance continues to illustrate 1 to 3
inches of snow in these locations above 2500 feet with a worst
case scenario of 3 to 6 inches especially along the highest
ridges (i.e western Highland and Pendleton Counties as well as
up around Wintergreen/Afton Mountain along the Blue Ridge). Some
uncertainty remains in regards to overall accumulation due
largely in part to the bulk of the snow falling within the max
insolation period this afternoon into early evening
18-00z/1-7pm. For now, will hold off on any headlines given the
uncertainty with a mention in the HWO. Headlines maybe needed
though given the amount of QPF and intensity of any
frontogenetic forcing/dynamical cooling as the low slides south
and east. Either way, if you are traveling in these areas plan
for slick road conditions as temperatures look to fall
throughout the day and into tonight as additional CAA pours in.
Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail with a slight chance of
rain mainly in areas south of I- 66/US-48 (Corridor H).

 

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