kdskidoo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Rickrd said: This is going to be one of those springs when the cold will drag on and on. I feel it. We will all be putting in our basements. and then GAP tourney will start, and it will be cold and snow in early May. I just know it! so you're saying its gonna be just like every other spring in PA Edited February 19 by kdskidoo 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, Rickrd said: This is going to be one of those springs when the cold will drag on and on. I feel it. We will all be putting in our basements. and then GAP tourney will start, and it will be cold and snow in early May. I just know it! Dude, luv ya man, but for the 15th time rip the freakin patch off. Messing with your brain. Got soo negative. IV , or snort nicotine. Better yet, turn to more alcohol. Look what it’s done for me. Ok, scratch that, but waning El Ninny screams above normal. And this puppy ain’t dog pounded yet either. Coroners been summoned yes, but give it tomorrow yet. It just wants to snow in PA . Warm after, but damn we ain’t far off. Give me kink for $800 Alex. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 19 Admin Share Posted February 19 10 hours ago, JDClapper said: I know there has been alot of antecdotal chatter about how the models seem to have gotten "worse" in recent years and I share this opinion. One thing the popped up my memory, I believe is back around 2016-2018, there was at least one very northern site in AK or Canada, if not multiple, that stopped launching balloons and even then I recall chatter about foecasts starting to be a little more, wonky. All these late game surprises and biuncy medium/long term forecasting, any thoughts on that possibly being a root cause? Lots of upgrades, yet I am certain many would argue those haven't helped much. 🙂 Bad data in = bad data out. There is definitely some validity to this as no mans land Vorts are what always make or break a forecast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 🔥🫠💩 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 From LWX LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Thursday morning, the Eastern Seaboard largely remains in between two areas of low pressure. One such feature is well out to sea across the western Atlantic, while the other is attached to a cold front near the Mississippi River. Given the split flow in place, the upstream system will actually come in two phases. The lead shortwave is expected to increase rainfall chances through the day on Thursday. This persists into the overnight hours as well as Friday morning. Overall rainfall totals are not terribly impressive, generally running between 0.10-0.25", locally a bit higher along the Alleghenies. A secondary cold front sweeps through midday Friday which provides a shot of colder air to the region. Upslope enhanced precipitation persists along and west of the Alleghenies from late Friday into portions of Saturday. Expect a changeover to a rain/snow mix or all snow as the column further cools. Otherwise, a drying trend should ensue for much of the weekend. Some additional shower chances may return to the Allegheny Front early next week. During the period, temperatures will be on the milder side with most locations in the 50s on Thursday and Friday. The effects of the cold advection behind the frontal boundaries will bring readings closer to climatology on Saturday. However, in the wake, winds return to west to southwesterly which yields another warming trend. Based on the latest extended guidance, this increase in temperatures could push into portions of next week as well. I figure all of this for the mountains~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 AFDCTP .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A deepening South to Southwesterly flow of air will develop as high pressure moves well east of the Atlantic Seaboard. No rain is anticipated before Wednesday night or more likely Thursday. Temperatures Tuesday onward will average above normal again. Models have backed off from phasing upper level features late in the week now. Some light rain and perhaps some patchy snow will taper off on Friday, as slightly colder air moves into the area by the weekend. Going beyond the weekend, building upper level heights across the east would support above normal temperatures for the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowadelphia Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Mid-range model crisis? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 LR NAM really shearing out the southern energy... maybe that leaves enough juice back to play around with the PV when it swings through? Trying to find any possibility with this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Looks to my eyes as just a frontal passage at this point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Looks to my eyes as just a frontal passage at this point. Yes, unless Lazarus is going to be the name, this threat is all but out of it. With each passing day, we move well beyond the point where accum. snow can stick around - even if a Big-Un is to be. That makes me happy. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 24 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Yes, unless Lazarus is going to be the name, this threat is all but out of it. With each passing day, we move well beyond the point where accum. snow can stick around - even if a Big-Un is to be. That makes me happy. Highly endorse this. Once we turn Feb corner, done. March snows just mud it up, and force me to go to Florida. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 This is what I think of this threat, other than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 minute ago, Rickrd said: This is what I think of this threat, other than rain. Word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Do you think if gave Mather Nature some doughnuts it would change ? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 13 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Do you think if gave Mather Nature some doughnuts it would change ? She's low carb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 22 minutes ago, Rickrd said: She's low carb curses foiled again…….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 20 Admin Share Posted February 20 8 hours ago, Rickrd said: This is what I think of this threat, other than rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 New England ski resorts liking how this is unfolding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 LWX Rain will overspread the region during the day Thursday and especially into Thursday night ahead of the approaching cold front. However, amounts at this point still look relatively light overall. Higher QPF is expected east of the Blue Ridge as upper forcing moves in early Friday morning prior to daybreak and along/west of the Allegheny Front where orographic lift will aid in some higher amounts. Either way, don`t see anyone getting much more than a quarter inch out of this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The synoptic pattern over the continent will be on the amplified side and remain split in nature. Across the eastern half of North America, a broad longwave trough extends over much of the area. The core of lower heights does remain confined to near Hudson Bay. Within the southern branch of the jet, a progressive shortwave ejects across the country before arriving into the local area early Friday. This ushers a cold front through the region on Friday morning. As this occurs, most rainfall chances begin to wane through the day as winds shift to west-northwesterly. When it is all said and done, total rainfall amounts will likely range between 0.10- 0.25", locally a bit higher from I-81 westward. Cyclonic flow aloft coupled with increasing upslope ascent will bring some snow showers to the Alleghenies Friday evening into portions of Saturday. An additional boundary pushes toward the northeastern U.S. during the weekend. Any precipitation should be relegated to the Allegheny Front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: LWX Rain will overspread the region during the day Thursday and especially into Thursday night ahead of the approaching cold front. However, amounts at this point still look relatively light overall. Higher QPF is expected east of the Blue Ridge as upper forcing moves in early Friday morning prior to daybreak and along/west of the Allegheny Front where orographic lift will aid in some higher amounts. Either way, don`t see anyone getting much more than a quarter inch out of this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The synoptic pattern over the continent will be on the amplified side and remain split in nature. Across the eastern half of North America, a broad longwave trough extends over much of the area. The core of lower heights does remain confined to near Hudson Bay. Within the southern branch of the jet, a progressive shortwave ejects across the country before arriving into the local area early Friday. This ushers a cold front through the region on Friday morning. As this occurs, most rainfall chances begin to wane through the day as winds shift to west-northwesterly. When it is all said and done, total rainfall amounts will likely range between 0.10- 0.25", locally a bit higher from I-81 westward. Cyclonic flow aloft coupled with increasing upslope ascent will bring some snow showers to the Alleghenies Friday evening into portions of Saturday. An additional boundary pushes toward the northeastern U.S. during the weekend. Any precipitation should be relegated to the Allegheny Front. Just another "winter" day in the "Mud-Atlantic" ( ©️) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 Yup my stick and leaf people have returned. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Just another "winter" day in the "Mud-Atlantic" ( ©️) Sadly we’re doing the best out of the East for snowfall this year 🤣 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 22 minutes ago, TLChip said: Sadly we’re doing the best out of the East for snowfall this year 🤣 Well LI did get its back to back snow on top of snow (though the totals where low on the second one, 1 - 2. But i'll take it. I cannot remember the last time LI had a snow on top of snow event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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