Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: That’s one thing that isn’t gone yet here I have had, LAZIK surgery, replaced knee, replaced hip, stented carotid, coupla dental implants. Damn near Lee Majors, I tell you. Having a worsening memory isn't all bad. You have a chance to meet "new" people every time you go anywhere. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 A step. The sliding board W Ridge pushes - a phase would be braking mechanism Timing, timing, timing... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I know there has been alot of antecdotal chatter about how the models seem to have gotten "worse" in recent years and I share this opinion. One thing the popped up my memory, I believe is back around 2016-2018, there was at least one very northern site in AK or Canada, if not multiple, that stopped launching balloons and even then I recall chatter about foecasts starting to be a little more, wonky. All these late game surprises and biuncy medium/long term forecasting, any thoughts on that possibly being a root cause? Lots of upgrades, yet I am certain many would argue those havent helped much. 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, geeter1 said: From our friends at State College... 😎 Of course my anti snow dome still rules….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Of course my anti snow dome still rules….. Are you surprised by the lack of snow? Because you do live in Virginia... hard to get consistent snow down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 18 Moderators Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, AceGikmo said: Are you surprised by the lack of snow? Because you do live in Virginia... hard to get consistent snow down there Connecticut is the new northern Virginia. Virginia, you're now South Carolina Something like that 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I know there has been alot of antecdotal chatter about how the models seem to have gotten "worse" in recent years and I share this opinion. One thing the popped up my memory, I believe is back around 2016-2018, there was at least one very northern site in AK or Canada, if not multiple, that stopped launching balloons and even then I recall chatter about foecasts starting to be a little more, wonky. All these late game surprises and biuncy medium/long term forecasting, any thoughts on that possibly being a root cause? Lots of upgrades, yet I am certain many would argue those havent helped much. 🙂 Sure seems like that would have an effect, at least with late games surprises. We have a lot a lot late changes and model disagreements late- many of those caused by things not seen/ changes up north, where we already had poor data. Really think the other issue is that growing warm pool in W Pac. I have been bitching since the original Accu how the Pac is controlling our weather more. Since models use tons of historical info to predict the future , and that history doesn’t work anymore , sure seems like they will come to incorrect conclusions- like the great nao/ao combo, best mjo phases that LRers had for this period. PAC just overwhelmed mjo and nao. We just don’t see good nao’s in the winters since around 2015, and when we do they have no staying power. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 18 Moderators Share Posted February 18 Nothing on the AI models at ECMWF. Did notice that the Pangu model has 2m temps in the 20-28C range at the end of the month and first week of March. Seems a little off. EPS control has it in the low to mid 60s. Mar 3 Feb 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: I have had, LAZIK surgery, replaced knee, replaced hip, stented carotid, coupla dental implants. Damn near Lee Majors, I tell you. Having a worsening memory isn't all bad. You have a chance to meet "new" people every time you go anywhere. Well despite all that, the good news is you don’t look your age. You look a lot fackin older 👀👀 Edited February 18 by RTC3-LAST CHANCE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 50 minutes ago, AceGikmo said: Are you surprised by the lack of snow? Because you do live in Virginia... hard to get consistent snow down there That’s a running joke. We do get snow but the last two years have not been great. Last large storm was 13” in Jan 2022 in a little less than 6 hours. Yes my avatar is of that storm Where I live has been on the rain snow line for the over 42 years I lived here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Well despite all that, the good news is you don’t look your age. You look a lot fackin older 👀👀 That's good - I'd hate to feel this old and not look the part. It's a matching set you might say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 46 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Connecticut is the new northern Virginia. Virginia, you're now South Carolina Something like that Sometimes it feels more like north Florida without the gators . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, JDClapper said: I know there has been alot of antecdotal chatter about how the models seem to have gotten "worse" in recent years and I share this opinion. One thing the popped up my memory, I believe is back around 2016-2018, there was at least one very northern site in AK or Canada, if not multiple, that stopped launching balloons and even then I recall chatter about foecasts starting to be a little more, wonky. All these late game surprises and biuncy medium/long term forecasting, any thoughts on that possibly being a root cause? Lots of upgrades, yet I am certain many would argue those havent helped much. 🙂 When I am metal detecting (another hobby we old times tend to take up - similar to looking for golf balls in out of bounds areas) I can select the sensitivity so as to discriminate metal types. If I tweak those setting to higher values, I get more erroneous "hits". Perhaps these model "improvements" are, in effect, similar? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: That's good - I'd hate to feel this old and not look the part. It's a matching set you might say. Actually I was going to say you look like a million dollars……. All green and wrinkly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The precipitation should reach the East Thursday-Friday with snow possible in parts of the Northeast. Northern New England has a relatively higher probability of seeing notable snow along with the potential for a period of brisk winds. The uncertain interaction of separate features ultimately leads to a wide range of possibilities for sensible weather over the Northeast, but most guidance suggests that that the region should see at least some precipitation/wind from this system. However confidence in exact magnitude remains fairly low. Continue to monitor forecasts over the coming days as important details become better resolved. Behind this system, parts of the Great Lakes may see mostly light snow from a combination of lake effect activity and one or more waves/frontal systems. - WPC Extended Forecast Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Despite lack of nao, etc, we are somehow sitting at just over 32 here. And snow doesn’t seem done yet for year. Pattern memory. This one doesn’t seem over by a long shot, per Clap’s point. Then fire hose for a bit. Then just when RickRd, UT, and myself don’t want it , around the 12th, the new weather era of 2 week pattern changes vs the old 6 + plus weeks may morph back to snowier look. Weird, anymore snow looks seem to get later and later in starting, but our Marches been below normal temps with multiple chances. Go figure. Beyond my pay grade. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: When I am metal detecting (another hobby we old times tend to take up - similar to looking for golf balls in out of bounds areas) I can select the sensitivity so as to discriminate metal types. If I tweak those setting to higher values, I get more erroneous "hits". Perhaps these model "improvements" are, in effect, similar? So the retirement investments aren’t performing, and you are digging for change 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 18 Author Admin Share Posted February 18 On 2/17/2024 at 8:09 AM, MaineJay said: The important northern stream energy is somewhere near the Bering Strait. The ocean storm is a mixture of energy in the deep Caribbean and energy that comes out of the complex west of Cali. The real "cue ball" that gets everything in motion is actually off screen, west of that compact H5 closed low between Kamchatka and the Aleutian islands. It has no direct influence, other than sending the other "billiard balls" into motion. The "cue ball" discussed here is now being handled a bit differently. The models were slower, and bringing this energy through north Canada. Recent runs are now bringing it much further south. It's a recent development, and it could simply keep the things progressive, but it'll likely be handled much differently in subsequent runs. Need to see some meaningful changes in the next couple model cycles. In regards to model accuracy. I don't necessarily think they are "worse", but they do have different biases than we grew accustomed to. Just my opinion. I do think the global models higher resolution is probably helping on balance, but creates issues with regards to over phasing. Part of me think the folks at UKmet have tried, and succeeded in removing that from it's model. Now, whether it's "improved" is another discussion. There's also way more data *cough* snow maps *cough cough* that get posted than "back in the day", and in higher resolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 35 minutes ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: So the retirement investments aren’t performing, and you are digging for change 😀 Many years ago, ol' Grandpa told me that Jesse James buried his loot up on the back lot. Those Lagina Boys got nothin on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 14 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Maybe another shot after this, but the fat lady is warming up on yet another subpar winter for many in the north east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 ULL in retrogression - past three Op runs H5 Better - "ish" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 20 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: ULL in retrogression - past three Op runs H5 Better - "ish" Yes! It would help earlier”kink”. I luv kink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 minute ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Yes! It would help earlier”kink”. I luv kink. Everybody talks about the leather, but very few do anything about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, RTC3-LAST CHANCE said: Despite lack of nao, etc, we are somehow sitting at just over 32 here. And snow doesn’t seem done yet for year. Pattern memory. This one doesn’t seem over by a long shot, per Clap’s point. Then fire hose for a bit. Then just when RickRd, UT, and myself don’t want it , around the 12th, the new weather era of 2 week pattern changes vs the old 6 + plus weeks may morph back to snowier look. Weird, anymore snow looks seem to get later and later in starting, but our Marches been below normal temps with multiple chances. Go figure. Beyond my pay grade. This is going to be one of those springs when the cold will drag on and on. I feel it. We will all be putting in our basements. and then GAP tourney will start, and it will be cold and snow in early May. I just know it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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