Wtkidz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Think of how things changed in this last storm . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marathongoalie Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Fwiw 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, marathongoalie said: Fwiw Sounds reasonable as modeled for now but things may change…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, marathongoalie said: Fwiw "Anecdotal cold"? The word maven in me will not allow that to pass without mention. I believe the word he intended might be "antecedent"? Anecdotal: Based on casual observation as opposed to rigorous analysis. Antecedent: Going before 3 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paletitsnow63 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: Sounds reasonable as modeled for now but things may change…. Basically we need the cold air to come a little faster or the storm to develop a little slower or a combination of the both things mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 17 Author Admin Share Posted February 17 ECMWF Ensembles look like they backed off a more consolidated system and are favoring a more "messy" trof. Northern stream will be tough to nail down, and the smart money always bets against phasing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 17 Author Admin Share Posted February 17 Spread is all in the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) ContentWx image and drawing brought me back to what has been on my mind vis a vie the W Ridge. I can't like the "sliding board" E side of that ridge. We've discussed this before - the sliding board ( \ ) v. the posi tilt ( / ) crest (sometimes I call it pebble into pond orientation) . The former allows the southern energy to shoot ahead (as models are showing at present); whereas the latter allows for better phasing potential as the S piece slows and has affinity to the N jet(s). The latter also usually promotes or is backed by CPF (Cross Polar Flow) which is always a genuine cold source - little, if any, chance to modify. Not that a ( \ ) crest can't/ won't work out. Simply that such orientation makes it "harder" for the match downstream. As currently modeled, the surface is not favorable - yet H8.5 does seem better supportive of precip falling as snow for most (albeit likely heavy and wet as you get to the coast). Certainly, any really robust coastal SLP can also "crank down" cold from aloft. Edited February 17 by Undertakerson2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 The percent prob charts reflect the issues with temperature etc. Inland and elevation much better positioned to work with marginal cold. Coast is 4 flushed after the flop (Texas Hold Em analogy) - not out of it, yet "needs help" and has time for it to work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 (edited) Nice Look Today--- For next Saturday Eve Next Friday Eve Timing and the lane markers not that far out of sync ATM Neutral 500 mb prog- might be a big head start here IMO Big Dog puzzle pieces on the board "snap it, pal"---Uncle Floyd Edited February 17 by Doorman 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: ECMWF Ensembles look like they backed off a more consolidated system and are favoring a more "messy" trof. Northern stream will be tough to nail down, and the smart money always bets against phasing. Long term forecasting, not my Forte. But pieces have been on the board a lot this season. A big ripper with a strong phase will not surprise me in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandO100 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 18 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Long term forecasting, not my Forte. But pieces have been on the board a lot this season. A big ripper with a strong phase will not surprise me in the slightest. I’ll let you all read the long term tea leaves, but if we can get a big ripper before spring sets in there would be a lot of happy people in here. Let’s go! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, CandO100 said: I’ll let you all read the long term tea leaves, but if we can get a big ripper before spring sets in there would be a lot of happy people in here. Let’s go! Remember when the divination professor read Harry Potters tea leaves??😂😂😞 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 More Speculative Eye Candy science or one image map-casting ??? we have potential, does mother nature have motivation ? "I can dig it baby!" ---- Little Beaver 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Decent for D7 Then again, many a blues classic leans heavily on D7 chording... (I can't get no) Satisfaction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: "Anecdotal cold"? The word maven in me will not allow that to pass without mention. I believe the word he intended might be "antecedent"? Anecdotal: Based on casual observation as opposed to rigorous analysis. Antecedent: Going before You know, in IT as a Software Engineer I work a lot with a tool called Maven, by the Apache Organization. It's a framework used to manage package dependency and the build life cycle of Java enterprise applications. Yet I never bothered to look up the word "maven" in the dictionary. I should mention that English is my second language, and my native tongue is Spanish, so I'm constantly looking to improve my English vocabulary. But you sir definitely have good command of English, so I agree you're a language maven. Cheers: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I will say there are a good number (5 or more) of the MREFS which appear to be quite enthusiastic about this date range and many that are decent storms without enough cold (IOW they at least have a storm, not a wide right miss). For one week out, it's a bit better than typical support. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 CTP makes passing reference and mention of a few of the bigger picture aspects of import Models having some problems with phasing or not to phase the upper level energy late in the week. At this point, while low may move off the coast by the end of the week, the upper level low dropping southeast and energy rotating around it is something to watch. Regardless, as a large scale ridge builds to the west, colder air will work into the area by the end of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTC3-LAST CHANCE Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 hours ago, MaineJay said: The important northern stream energy is somewhere near the Bering Strait. The ocean storm is a mixture of energy in the deep Caribbean and energy that comes out of the complex west of Cali. The real "cue ball" that gets everything in motion is actually off screen, west of that compact H5 closed low between Kamchatka and the Aleutian islands. It has no direct influence, other than sending the other "billiard balls" into motion. Remember this post. It is brilliant. Posted this morning and still applies. Its all about over the top. This goes right, and we overcome the nao. For the naonuts, which i am a card carrying member, Let go of the girl that got away. Because of that Pac warm pool, she gone in winter, until that changes. Busting up the mjo also. Research it. So we do it this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 LWX says this and of course says rain . An area of low pressure will likely impact the area beginning Thursday night into Friday. There still remains a good bit of model discrepancy on the timing and impacts of the system, but we will continue to monitor as it gets closer. The current forecast has an area of low pressure and associated cold front moving through the area Friday morning. This would bring rain and cooler temperatures, with snow showers possible at higher elevations. Temperatures on Friday will be cooler compared to Thursday with overnight lows dipping into the 20s. Precipitation chances stay at chance to slight chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) Here we go......CAPTURE SCENARIO Fifty Fifty Low Pressure Block 18Z hang in hold on Edited February 18 by Doorman 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500diff_wbg.gif NEGATIVE TILT FRAME #4 Just how wrong can this data be???? Right???? I can tell winter burnout is starting for some.....will take a nice break till the end of the week very legit threat by the hour dm Edited February 18 by Doorman 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Well AN antecedent airmass + tucked in TIGHT = long and hard row to hoe for snow. Best be a Big-Un or break out the bumbershoot 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 11 hours ago, Doorman said: More Speculative Eye Candy science or one image map-casting ??? we have potential, does mother nature have motivation ? "I can dig it baby!" ---- Little Beaver Hello Doorman! 🙂 Yeah, I’ve “crossed over to the dark side” to check out what you all got goin on next weekend lol!! (J/k haha!!) Do you think our Ohio valley will get in on this storm at all? We just had our only snow of the year on Friday and it was a good one! But I’m hoping for one more, please ! 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now