snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 16 minutes ago, junior said: I like the NAM. I work but its one of those events where you can sit at the bay window and watch the snow. The orientation reminds me of that event years ago that busted low and we got almost 6" from a forecast of 1-3" due to the banding nature. (if i recall, been a minute) 13 minutes ago, RobB said: I think I may remember this event. It was quite a while ago..Assuming we are thinking the same one 🙂 If it's the same one, i remember models seem to lose the snow about 4-5 days out. It got to NAM range and starting coming back but on the NAM only until maybe 2 days out when the others caught back on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GEFS 10:1 mean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 HRDPS is generous. Bit overdone I’d guess. 🤷🏻♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ILN afternoon discussion for this small system: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... In fast mid level zonal flow pattern surface high pressure to build across the area tonight into early Friday. Skies to start out mostly clear tonight with increasing clouds overnight. Temperatures are expected to drop to lows from the upper 20s across most of the region with readings around 30 south of the Ohio River. Mid level shortwave to track from the central Plains east-southeast across the Ohio Valley Friday. Surface wave to pass to our south thru the TN Valley. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. P-type looks to be mainly snow with a mix of rain and snow south of the Ohio River. Forecast snow amounts generaLLY an inch or less. Highest totals around an inch are expected across Eastern Indiana into southwest Ohio. Road impacts will likely be limited, due to ground and air temperatures. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12Z Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, RobB said: ILN afternoon discussion for this small system: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... In fast mid level zonal flow pattern surface high pressure to build across the area tonight into early Friday. Skies to start out mostly clear tonight with increasing clouds overnight. Temperatures are expected to drop to lows from the upper 20s across most of the region with readings around 30 south of the Ohio River. Mid level shortwave to track from the central Plains east-southeast across the Ohio Valley Friday. Surface wave to pass to our south thru the TN Valley. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. P-type looks to be mainly snow with a mix of rain and snow south of the Ohio River. Forecast snow amounts generaLLY an inch or less. Highest totals around an inch are expected across Eastern Indiana into southwest Ohio. Road impacts will likely be limited, due to ground and air temperatures. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast. Should have a new one in a couple of hours. I would guess there will be an increase in totals mentioned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 15 Admin Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Should have a new one in a couple of hours. I would guess there will be an increase in totals mentioned. They are probably so hesitant. Can't blame them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow depth is rarely great with models but here is the EPS Snow Depth Mean at hour 42 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z HRRR 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Starting to juice up a tad? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, JayPSU said: Starting to juice up a tad? was thinking the same thing-totals for central Ohio slowly creeping up. About time we had one trend in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 15 Admin Share Posted February 15 NAM is stronger, too. Not that I trust it more than circus peanuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z NAM much juicier as well. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 SWS from IND Quote Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 251 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-160400- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 251 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW ON FRIDAY... Snow will begin after sunrise Friday morning across northern portions of central Indiana and then spread south and east into the afternoon. One to two inches of snow are expected, with the highest amounts expected in the Interstate 70 corridor. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially from the I-70 corridor south to a Bloomington to Columbus line. The snow may impact the late afternoon rush hour. This remains a developing situation, with potential changes in amounts and the locations of the highest amounts. Stay tuned for later updates. Cold temperatures Friday night could cause lingering water on roads to freeze. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z 3K NAM 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ILN holding off on advisory for now but say that an advisory or more could be needed. Quote .SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Interesting setup with the system moving into the area Friday into Friday night. There are some concerning signals starting to develop that there will be some Fgen forcing and banding of snow across portions of the region. Increased snowfall values quite a bit with this forecast package, however did not go as high as they could be and did not go with an advisory do to a few factors. There is definitely the potential that an advisory or perhaps more in isolated locations will be needed if these current trends continue. Confidence factors include the banded set up with very good forcing that is expected. Also leading to confidence is general model agreement. Less confidence factors include time of day with warm ground, signal for drier air south of the best banding meaning there will likely be a decent gradient, warmer air across southern portions of the region, and recent shift in model solutions towards this higher snowfall solution. As mentioned, increased values and trended towards higher snowfall values and will increase messaging with this package to allow for greater awareness of accumulating snowfall potential that is expected. Also increased wording moreso in the HWO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 At this point in this season, I'm rooting for futility or 6"+. Anything in between is annoying. But my thoughts/emotions don't control the weather, so I guess I won't be upset to watch a wintry scene tomorrow night... 🙃 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18Z RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 18Z Icon Edited February 15 by RobB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoroBuckeye Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m pretty optimistic on this (relatively speaking). I think a clipper like this is more likely surprise to the upside to the downside (and maybe that’s what the models are starting to sniff out in 18Z). Also, as I said before, Saturday is cold. Snow won’t be gone instantly which is nice! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 15 Admin Share Posted February 15 "There are some concerning signals starting to develop that there will be some Fgen forcing and banding of snow across portions of the region." YASSSSSSS. Give me all the concerning signals. 😆 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: "There are some concerning signals starting to develop that there will be some Fgen forcing and banding of snow across portions of the region." YASSSSSSS. Give me all the concerning signals. 😆 😄 definitely my laugh for the day, but I agree.....show me how concerning it can be 😂 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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