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Feb 15-16th, Clipper Potential


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The 6Z NAM has good fairly good snows across northern NY and northern New England.  It seems to only let western Maine share in the fun.

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snku_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

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Looks kinda squally, NAM3 has a bit of an inverted trof look, but residence time is probably a bit short.  A fluffy 1-4" would freshen up the dwindling, crusty "snowpack ".

nam3km_z500_vort_eus_28.thumb.png.9a8b806e90c738d375a873d709154767.png

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Norton agrees - Up to 30 units of omega (!! no idea what that means)

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Robust mid level shortwave and accompanying clipper low moves east
across New Eng tonight and will bring a 4-6 hour period of snow to
the region. The low pres tracks to the north, but a period of strong
forcing for ascent develops ahead of the storm along the nose of a
50 kt low level jet. Low level thermal profile is cold as moisture
and lift moves in and snow will quickly overspread SNE from west to
east between 7 and 10 pm. Up to 30 units of omega within the DGZ,
combined with steepening mid level lapse rates suggests a brief
period of moderate snow moving west to east. The best chance of this
will be north of the Pike where HREF indicates low probs (30%) of
1"/hr snowfall rates. This is a quick moving system and the heavier
snowfall rates will be limited to a few hours at most, much of this
occurring after the evening commute so limited impacts. And snow will
be quickly ending between midnight and 2 am as dry slot moves in
from the west. The SW flow will eventually warm the boundary layer
near the south coast where snow may change to rain before ending.
Looking at max accumulations of 1-3 inches along and north of
the MA Pike with low risk for 4 inches in western Franklin
county. Up to an inch south of the MA Pike.

 

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3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

A fluffy 1-4" would freshen up the dwindling, crusty "snowpack ".

The 3" - 4" snowpack around here has compacted enough to support my weight. 

The current NWS/B-N Office snow graphic for this clipper:

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

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Bolton reporting 4' of new snow tonight and 10" over the last three days.  Mad River is reporting 3"-5" from this overnight event.  They expect to receive additional snow through this afternoon.  It should make for fairly good skiing for all those coming up for President's Day Weekend.

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The snow intensity picked up at approximately 10 am and maybe we can get another inch or more out of this.  The mountains should be doing well.  The snow is very light and fluffy and the current temp is 24F.

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We had snow on and off today with a squall moving through at one point.  Bolton is reporting 5"-8" of new snow over the last day and 14" over the last 3 days.   The radar continues to show snow falling in the general area.

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