Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 k Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 My own thoughts are the models have been pretty consistent with some wiggles. Well now that we are on at the 48 hour mark let’s see if this changes like most of the storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 minutes ago, Wtkidz said: My own thoughts are the models have been pretty consistent with some wiggles. Well now that we are on at the 48 hour mark let’s see if this changes like most of the storms this year. Not sure we'll see much in the way of changes. This is a Clipper and we've not really seen a wintery clipper for some time. These, with their fewer moving parts - have fewer things to make for jumpy models. Seems like a straightforward "Mason Dixon Special" - as the wintery side axis lies roughly along that line. NADS of 2+" - centered on M/D Line - totals dwindling after ~60mi each side of that line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post geeter1 Posted February 15 Popular Post Share Posted February 15 I was invited to join this forum by @Rickrd, he said there were many folks in here that I would recognize. He wasn't kidding. Glad to be in here... 😎 12 3 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Not sure we'll see much in the way of changes. This is a Clipper and we've not really seen a wintery clipper for some time. These, with their fewer moving parts - have fewer things to make for jumpy models. Seems like a straightforward "Mason Dixon Special" - as the wintery side axis lies roughly along that line. NADS of 2+" - centered on M/D Line - totals dwindling after ~60mi each side of that line. Icon and Euro does agree with you thoughts, but Nam and Gfs are def more south. Sorry meant to show the Euro earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, geeter1 said: I was invited to join this forum by @Rickrd, he said there were many folks in here that I would recognize. He wasn't kidding. Glad to be in here... 😎 Welcome ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Wtkidz said: 3 k Nam Per this run there is 12 hours of light snow over CNJ. 👍 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 33 minutes ago, geeter1 said: I was invited to join this forum by @Rickrd, he said there were many folks in here that I would recognize. He wasn't kidding. Glad to be in here... 😎 Much better then the other spot!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6z euro is rather juicy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 20 minutes ago, Anthonyweather said: 6z euro is rather juicy Holy BLEEEEEP Nooooooooooooooo. I just got power back on last night from 8:30 Tues a.m. I imagine this will be a LAFS (light and fluffy snow) event though, compared to the sakrete stuff that fell last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthonyweather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Holy BLEEEEEP Nooooooooooooooo. I just got power back on last night from 8:30 Tues a.m. I imagine this will be a LAFS (light and fluffy snow) event though, compared to the sakrete stuff that fell last storm. Yes higher ratio fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) SREF trends do indicate increased moisture making it through the Clipper route. These Southern Clippers have a way of somehow avoiding the dreaded downsloping/dryness we see when their path is more along the PA/NY border (as opposed to the PA/WV-MD-De path. Edited February 15 by Undertakerson2.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Also one of those times where you can look upstream to see what locations that are roughly on your same latitude over that way are getting. I shall simply wait until @RobBreports and then I'll know what I need to deal with (to me, he is rough estimate lat as I, often times in bowling balls and clipper events, we end up quite the same amounts) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: Also one of those times where you can look upstream to see what locations that are roughly on your same latitude over that way are getting. I shall simply wait until @RobBreports and then I'll know what I need to deal with (to me, he is rough estimate lat as I, often times in bowling balls and clipper events, we end up quite the same amounts) Will do! How I long for a good bowling ball system and a solid over performing clipper system 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 12K NAM not particularly different than previously. A touch south of 6z and 00z I suppose one could say. 3K OTOH spreads much more love N of Mason Dixon and seems quite a bit more "wet". Edited February 15 by Undertakerson2.0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceGikmo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM 3k continues to trend a tad more juicy (last 3 runs below). Long range HRRR yields similar values. For this scale of storm, 12k NAM seems too low res (as weird as that is to say) to accurately portray the QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3k Nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squepp Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12z GFS looks to be in same track as 6z but looks a bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update) SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to the south and brings snow to the region. Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64 corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal, around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to 4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings, and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon. Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest guidance comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Squepp said: 12z GFS looks to be in same track as 6z but looks a bit weaker Quick mover so QPF lower ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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