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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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LWX. AFD.

 


Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting
clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to
the south and brings snow to the region, at least parts of the
region.

Latest guidance has the low moving south of the region, though
some guidance has it near the I-64 corridor which would result
in some rain mixing in. From a dynamic and thermo perspective,
H85 and H925 heights are cold and supportive of snow. Decent
signature of 700mb VV right over the CWA in the predawn Saturday
which could support moderate rates for a period of time. Ratios
should favor greater than climo and closer to ~12-15:1 across
the northern third of the area, with 10-12:1 across the metros.
Big uncertainty is how much QPF will fall. Latest ensemble
consensus is closer to 0.2" across most of the CWA, with higher
amounts in the mountains. Latest forecast on
weather.gov/lwx/winter
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Off topic question, last April 1st 2023 we had those 'naders in NJ, one went right through my backyard. At the time I was posting on that other site. 👀 I want to share all the pics and videos here. Where should I post them? Create a new thread. 🤔

Edited by LUCC
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51 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Off topic question, last April 1st 2023 we had those 'naders in NJ, one went right through my backyard. At the time I was posting on that other site. 👀 I want to share all the pics and videos here. Where should I post them? Create a new thread. 🤔

Could try posting them in the Daily thread for April 2023, maybe?  For archival purposes.

 

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Sterling’s AFD

 

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting
clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to
the south and brings snow to the region, at least parts of the
region.

Latest guidance has the low moving south of the region, though
some guidance has it near the I-64 corridor which would result
in some rain mixing in. Snow amounts have trended down slightly
this cycle, but most likely totals are generally 1-3 inches for
most of the area and 3-6 inches possible along the higher
elevations. Uncertainties remain regarding the track of the low
and QPF. For the latest winter forecast see
weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Precipitation exits Saturday morning, with possibly some
lingering upslope snow along the Alleghenies. High pressure
builds in behind it with dry conditions the remainder of
Saturday. Clouds decrease through the day allowing temperatures
to rebound into the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains. Low
temperatures drop into 20s for much of the area and into the
10s for the mountains.
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