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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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 LWX 

Spread in ensemble guidance increases markedly heading into next
weekend. Synoptically, we`ll be situated in northwesterly flow
aloft. There are hints that a disturbance will descend down in
northwesterly flow on Saturday. Some ensemble members produce
precipitation with this feature, while others don`t. If precipitation
were to occur, it could be in the form of snow, even to the east of
the mountains. For the time being, precipitation amounts look to be
light with that system, if any precipitation occurs at all. For the
time being we have seasonable temperatures in the forecast, with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. However, it`s worth noting
that ensemble guidance has forecast highs ranging anywhere from the
upper 20s to lower 60s.
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Well it’s there but not much interest. 

LWX AFD

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will be located southwest of the area Friday while low
pressure pulls away from New England. Dry and seasonable conditions
are expected, with gusty west winds subsiding.

There is fairly good model agreement on the next shortwave trough
crossing the area Friday night into Saturday. However, there is more
uncertainty with the track of the surface low, how much moisture is
drawn into the area, and how much cold air will be in place. Snow is
possible, even in the lower elevations, if the colder solutions
verify and the precipitation falls primarily overnight/Saturday
morning.

Upslope snow may continue into Saturday night, but then high
pressure is expected to build into the area Sunday and Monday.
Before it moves closer by, winds will be gusty Saturday into Sunday.
There is some sizable spread in temperature forecasts; however the
most likely outcomes favor near to above normal.

 

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1 minute ago, Paletitsnow63 said:

Looks like it is over here.  Sun appearing through the clouds and temp up to 35.  Finished with 6.5".  Biggest snowstorm here since early February 2021.  

 

PXL_20240213_152620341.jpg

PXL_20240213_152634945.jpg

This may be the wrong thread...👀

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Unfortunately, I'm thinking there's a relatively low ceiling for this one. The Canadian ULL is guiding the main piece of energy west to east and there really isn't much down stream to keep it from just cruising off the coast. If that southern piece was 24 hours quicker, we could've been in business with some kind of phase, but without any blocking it just gets outrun by the northern energy. Someone in the right location probably squeezes out 6" but it'll be hard to get any more than that.

500hv.na.png

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1 minute ago, AceGikmo said:

Unfortunately, I'm thinking there's a relatively low ceiling for this one. The Canadian ULL is guiding the main piece of energy west to east and there really isn't much down stream to keep it from just cruising off the coast. If that southern piece was 24 hours quicker, we could've been in business with some kind of phase, but without any blocking it just gets outrun by the northern energy. Someone in the right location probably squeezes out 6" but it'll be hard to get any more than that.

500hv.na.png

With the way this winter has gone...ill be happy with a few inches on top of snow

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18 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Seems like last best shot b4 mjo collapse?

Had seemed that way for a while at least... the cold air seems to want to hang around next week so I think there could be one more possibility before the pattern resets.

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Oh well  as of now it’s above my back yard…. Southern trend needed… nope it will go north.  I guess I have to be happy with the 4.5 inches of snow for this year. Which is 5.5 times better than last year. 

at least this is something to track…

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18 minutes ago, Wtkidz said:

Oh well  as of now it’s above my back yard…. Southern trend needed… nope it will go north.  I guess I have to be happy with the 4.5 inches of snow for this year. Which is 5.5 times better than last year. 

at least this is something to track…

That is incredibly precise

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