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February 16-17, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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  • The title was changed to February 17-19, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Speculation
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9 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Now what? LOL

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Adjusted dates too.. that way if anyone wants to take a stab at the backend, they can do so. 

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2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

It's not like this threat is dead in the water - surprised not much discussion. Winter weary or waiting weary I guess

 

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I think folks are still tracking the 12th. This has my interest piqued though. I’ll try to drive deeper this evening once the kiddos go to bed.

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0z suite. CMC has a Miller A look. Timing is definitely still being sorted out with this - in addition to impacts. I’d say the NAVGEM is in a good spot for snow lovers - but it has not been the most progressive model a number of different times this season. Use all of this information at your own peril. 

 

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Edited by Snowadelphia
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2 hours ago, Snowadelphia said:

0z suite. CMC has a Miller A look. Timing is definitely still being sorted out with this - in addition to impacts. I’d say the NAVGEM is in a good spot for snow lovers - but it has not been the most progressive model a number of different times this season. Use all of this information at your own peril. 

 

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EC39A7EC-672B-4CFA-8657-B4243F86FDC1.jpeg

Nice run down. Thanks for the comparisons. 

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1 minute ago, Snowadelphia said:

Really looks good aloft. Surface maps still being funky? I’d bet we see a bomb thrown in over the course of the next few runs. 

w/o a doubt in my mind. Should open a contest poll as to which suite will show it? LOL

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18 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Interesting

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Aloft it's pretty close to something grand...

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First time turning my attention more to this time frame with the Mon/Tues system now more fleshed out... Do I see three parcels of energy potentially phasing together? 👀

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9 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

First time turning my attention more to this time frame with the Mon/Tues system now more fleshed out... Do I see three parcels of energy potentially phasing together? 👀

That IS the Arctic Jet pushing in hard. It's the Pac jet that jumps out in front (watch to see the models slow that down - I believe they will over time), then the STJ is pressing up "from below". 

So yes, yes it is. As you say, we have the V-day morning one, then we actually have the clipper end of next week (will pull in cold air and renew it) and then this one. 

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LWX mentions this for the first time….

SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will pass to the south and offshore
through tonight. A stronger area of low pressure will approach
the central Appalachians Monday, before crossing the Mid-
Atlantic and passing southeast of New England Tuesday. High
pressure will build in from the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys
Wednesday into Thursday, then a cold front approaching from the
Great Lakes will cross the region Thursday night into Friday.
Another area of low pressure may develop near the Gulf Coast
while high pressure builds to the north and west Saturday.

 

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3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

Nice 50/50

That’s been the thing with this timeframe… seems like everything is there. 50/50.. teleconnections.. but haven’t gotten the ignition to turn over on anything too exciting (in the modeling at least) 

 

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12 minutes ago, AceGikmo said:

Can you translate this? I think I like what I'm seeing but first time seeing it

Well.. the AI model.. which has had pretty decent verification. Probably on par with the Euro.. little better, little worse at times. Seems like it has the low further north, but not really that strong. But.. since everything has been primarily south, this gives hope that it could be far enough north for impacts. Still a long way to go with this one.. and probably need to clear the Monday-Tuesday storm to see how things shake out. 

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7 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Well.. the AI model.. which has had pretty decent verification. Probably on par with the Euro.. little better, little worse at times. Seems like it has the low further north, but not really that strong. But.. since everything has been primarily south, this gives hope that it could be far enough north for impacts. Still a long way to go with this one.. and probably need to clear the Monday-Tuesday storm to see how things shake out. 

Gotcha, so just MSLP and QPF overlayed? Wasn't sure without a legend.

I agree, would much rather see weaker and south than stronger and north at this juncture. Gonna be watching the polar energy riding over the west Canada ridge closely because if that can eject just a little slower than currently shown to allow more development underneath, then we're really in business

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